Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5
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- Bocadude85
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- Ivanhater
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SotabusterFL wrote:The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours
O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?
forecaster knabb, thats why it doesnt make sense
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ivanhater wrote:SotabusterFL wrote:The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours
O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?
forecaster knabb, thats why it doesnt make sense
I shudder to think what Avila would have done with it!
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- Bocadude85
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SotabusterFL wrote:
The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours
O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?
I'm guessing they are thinking it may track WSW
The official forecast is only adjusted slightly southward since it is quite possible the center will reform farther north during the next 36 hours
O.K. can someone explain to me how they determine to move the forecast track southward when the center can possble be reforming father north?
I'm guessing they are thinking it may track WSW
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- wxman57
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hicksta wrote:Where are the models showing?
Here are the 18Z models. I removed the worthless BAMD/BAMM/BAMS/LBAR/ETA/XTRAP and any climo models. What's left are the UKMET, GFDL iterations, AVN (GFS) GFDN iterations (NOGAPS GFDL), and the NOGAPS, as well as a few consensus models. All are in good agreement on a general westerly motion with a turn to the WNW-NW on Thursday. Note that the 12Z ECMWF drove Rita across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, across the northern Yucatan, then WNW-NW toward just south of Brownsville, TX. I think it's too far south initially, and too far south at the end.
Note that the NHC track is on the northern edge of the dynamic model guidance, by the way.
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/rita10.gif">
Last edited by wxman57 on Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hi
Was just checking out floater #1 sat. pic. and there was no outline for Haiti or Jamaica.. that kind of confused me for a second
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg
Last edited by Dave C on Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- HeatherAKC
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Uh ohhhh....
Doesn't even make sense to me.
it's like saying...."I'm only going to take $50 with me to buy this new umbrella because I know it's quite possible it's going to be $80." If I know it's quite possible to be $80, I'm going to take $100! Maybe that's just me. (And my expensive new umbrella)
Can someone explain this reasoning to me?
Doesn't even make sense to me.
it's like saying...."I'm only going to take $50 with me to buy this new umbrella because I know it's quite possible it's going to be $80." If I know it's quite possible to be $80, I'm going to take $100! Maybe that's just me. (And my expensive new umbrella)
Can someone explain this reasoning to me?
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wxman57 wrote:hicksta wrote:Where are the models showing?
Here are the 18Z models. I removed the worthless BAMD/BAMM/BAMS/LBAR/ETA/XTRAP and any climo models. What's left are the UKMET, GFDL iterations, AVN (GFS) GFDN iterations (NOGAPS GFDL), and the NOGAPS, as well as a few consensus models. All are in good agreement on a general westerly motion with a turn to the WNW-NW on Thursday. Note that the 12Z ECMWF drove Rita across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, across the northern Yucatan, then WNW-NW toward just south of Brownsville, TX. I think it's too far south initially, and too far south at the end.
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/rita10.gif">
Wow, barely even clouds or rain even for the Keys!
If it verifies of course, which I'm not sure on at all.
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- wxman57
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HeatherAKC wrote:Uh ohhhh....
Doesn't even make sense to me.
it's like saying...."I'm only going to take $50 with me to buy this new umbrella because I know it's quite possible it's going to be $80." If I know it's quite possible to be $80, I'm going to take $100! Maybe that's just me. (And my expensive new umbrella)
Can someone explain this reasoning to me?
Sorry, I already have an umbrella.
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- HeatherAKC
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- HurricaneQueen
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The ridge appears to be quite strong and is low over S. FL. Unless something drastically happens-like she stalls until the ridge lifts, it would appear that S. FL is relatively safe, IMHO. After making minor preparations all day, I feel more confident that this will pass well south of us. Time will tell.
Lynn
Lynn
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GO FLORIDA GATORS
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