Absolutely no way....

[TheShrimper]

....Rita's center is south of 23N. I just got off the boat and read the posts concerning the discrepencies of the location. 22.2N is just south of Mayaguana Isle in the southern Bahamas. There is hardly any convection in that vicinity. Granted, I understand the possible displacement of the convection due to the ULL southwestward, but I can not see any signs of a LLC where it is depicted. The center is at located at least 1.0 degree northerly, if they do not acknowledge this at this point in time, they will in the next advisory. Now it still may follow the eventual track concensus derived by the models, but with a northern component initialized. I am a little more concerned here in SW Fla. on the coast, after viewing the V. Sat. Loop. the cloud pattern seems to be expanding to the north, showing no signs of being suppressed buy the ridge. Remember, even if the ridge builds and the westerly track ensues, any deviation initially to the north, brings alot more of Fla. into the picture. TheShrimper.

[jkt21787]

....Rita's center is south of 23N. I just got off the boat and read the posts concerning the discrepencies of the location. 22.2N is just south of Mayaguana Isle in the southern Bahamas. There is hardly any convection in that vicinity. Granted, I understand the possible displacement of the convection due to the ULL southwestward, but I can not see any signs of a LLC where it is depicted. The center is at located at least 1.0 degree northerly, if they do not acknowledge this at this point in time, they will in the next advisory. Now it still may follow the eventual track concensus derived by the models, but with a northern component initialized. I am a little more concerned here in SW Fla. on the coast, after viewing the V. Sat. Loop. the cloud pattern seems to be expanding to the north, showing no signs of being suppressed buy the ridge. Remember, even if the ridge builds and the westerly track ensues, any deviation initially to the north, brings alot more of Fla. into the picture. TheShrimper.

Recon determined the LLC is where they set it at in the advisory. As you said, the convection is displaced by shear. The latest recon did show the center a bit further north, but still south of 23N. This is an indication that the LLC and MLC (where the convection is) are trying to align, however.

If you think the center (current position of the LLC) is south of 23N, then you are saying that recon and NHC is lying to us.

[Canelaw99]

Not entirely - our local met, and the advisory (if I'm not mistaken) said that the LLC is located where they placed it, but there's a MLC north and the LLC will most likely head up to meet the MLC. Our local met, Norcross, said he wouldn't be surprised to see the coordinates jump north a bit in the next couple of advisories....

BTW, this thread may get locked because there are a couple of other Rita threads along these lines

[jkt21787]

Not entirely - our local met, and the advisory (if I'm not mistaken) said that the LLC is located where they placed it, but there's a MLC north and the LLC will most likely head up to meet the MLC. Our local met, Norcross, said he wouldn't be surprised to see the coordinates jump north a bit in the next couple of advisories....

BTW, this thread may get locked because there are a couple of other Rita threads along these lines

Exactly what I just said

j/k

[Canelaw99]

LOL yeah yeah - I just like getting my $0.02 in

[MGC]

The MLC appears to me to be stronger than the LLCon satellite. Thus, I would not be surprised if the LLC reforms futher north under the MLC. If this were to occur, than the threat to S Florida would increase.......MGC

[TheShrimper]

Memphis, I am just calling what I see, and after living here in SW Fla. almost all my life, I am afforded that option. And it would not be the first time that the NHC has made a dramatic change in a 6 hr. period. If you were here where tropical threats meant whether your livelyhood is jeopordized. you would weigh all options instead of ensinuating that the NHC is lying about the recon observations. It is easy for a non participant to make a claim, with nothing at stake.
Move down here and raise your family here, on the water, the same place where you make your living on, ...then tell me what the NHC say's , is etched in stone. TheShrimper

[TheShrimper]

By the way, tell that to the people in Miami and the Keys after Katrina. I just got back from the Keys and saw the moutains of debris on Krome Ave., all the way down to Key West. How did that happen, the storm was supposed to enter Broward and exit Lee County? We have reason to worry here, we need only to look back a few weeks.

[Ivanhater]

By the way, tell that to the people in Miami and the Keys after Katrina. I just got back from the Keys and saw the moutains of debris on Krome Ave., all the way down to Key West. How did that happen, the storm was supposed to enter Broward and exit Lee County? We have reason to worry here, we need only to look back a few weeks.

and the folks in mississippi and new orleans, it was supposed to hit the florida panhandle

[HurricaneQueen]

Shrimper,

If you are concerned then I guess I'd better change my thought process. I have never seen you hype anything. Generally, your's is a very conservative approach. Will be anxious to see what the next model run shows and where they locate the center.

Lynn

[Texasblu]

I for one listen to The Shrimper. Saw him in the newspaper last year and the man knows whereof he speaks. If he says "head for the hills" that's where I'm going. BTW, my screen name is Texasblu, don't let that fool you, I'm in Port Charlotte, FL.

[jkt21787]

Memphis, I am just calling what I see, and after living here in SW Fla. almost all my life, I am afforded that option. And it would not be the first time that the NHC has made a dramatic change in a 6 hr. period. If you were here where tropical threats meant whether your livelyhood is jeopordized. you would weigh all options instead of ensinuating that the NHC is lying about the recon observations. It is easy for a non participant to make a claim, with nothing at stake.
Move down here and raise your family here, on the water, the same place where you make your living on, ...then tell me what the NHC say's , is etched in stone. TheShrimper

That's where the center is (was at this point), they are not (were not) lying to you.

NHC mentioned the center could reform more North, and it appears to be doing that. S FL would obviously be much more at risk with this scenario.

Because NHC mentioned this possible scenario, then they have done nothing wrong. It wouldn't be a "dramatic change", at least in their thinking, because they thought it could happen.

I've watched tropical systems all my life though never living on the Gulf Coast, I know how NHC works. The rest of your post and the followup I won't even respond to.

I will say though that I am sick and tired of people claiming those not living on the Gulf Coast or in an area threatened by tropical systems have no knowledge of the tropics and how these systems can pose threats to life and property.

[TheShrimper]

Lynn, I am not really hyping anything, I am just concernrd that a 1.0 degree northerly relocation could bring alot more areas into play. It makes a big difference if Everglades City gets flooded,as opposed to Goodland or Marco Island. If the deviation is more extreme, Naples, Bonita, and Ft. Myers come into the picture. It doesnt take much, so we should keep vigilant, not panic but keep aware.
You moreso in Collier tham us in Lee.

[tracyswfla]

Lynn, I am not really hyping anything, I am just concernrd that a 1.0 degree northerly relocation could bring alot more areas into play. It makes a big difference if Everglades City gets flooded,as opposed to Goodland or Marco Island. If the deviation is more extreme, Naples, Bonita, and Ft. Myers come into the picture. It doesnt take much, so we should keep vigilant, not panic but keep aware.
You moreso in Collier tham us in Lee.

It is moving NW now.... enough said.

[cjrciadt]

Lynn, I am not really hyping anything, I am just concernrd that a 1.0 degree northerly relocation could bring alot more areas into play. It makes a big difference if Everglades City gets flooded,as opposed to Goodland or Marco Island. If the deviation is more extreme, Naples, Bonita, and Ft. Myers come into the picture. It doesnt take much, so we should keep vigilant, not panic but keep aware.
You moreso in Collier tham us in Lee.

It is moving NW now.... enough said.

I hope I'm not the only one in Central FL looking at Rita! A steady NW to WNW movment could put it in West Palm or Vero, or heck Melbourne!!!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Memphis, I am just calling what I see, and after living here in SW Fla. almost all my life, I am afforded that option. And it would not be the first time that the NHC has made a dramatic change in a 6 hr. period. If you were here where tropical threats meant whether your livelyhood is jeopordized. you would weigh all options instead of ensinuating that the NHC is lying about the recon observations. It is easy for a non participant to make a claim, with nothing at stake.
Move down here and raise your family here, on the water, the same place where you make your living on, ...then tell me what the NHC say's , is etched in stone. TheShrimper

Worth repeating Shrimper.

[jkt21787]

Memphis, I am just calling what I see, and after living here in SW Fla. almost all my life, I am afforded that option. And it would not be the first time that the NHC has made a dramatic change in a 6 hr. period. If you were here where tropical threats meant whether your livelyhood is jeopordized. you would weigh all options instead of ensinuating that the NHC is lying about the recon observations. It is easy for a non participant to make a claim, with nothing at stake.
Move down here and raise your family here, on the water, the same place where you make your living on, ...then tell me what the NHC say's , is etched in stone. TheShrimper

Worth repeating Shrimper.

Then this is worth repeating as well...

"I will say though that I am sick and tired of people claiming those not living on the Gulf Coast or in an area threatened by tropical systems have no knowledge of the tropics and how these systems can pose threats to life and property."

Sure maybe I haven't had the experience, but I know well what pain you people go through with these systems and the ordeal it is everytime there is a storm even with the slight hint of being a threat.

I find it an insult to me, and anyone else not living on the coast, that you would think I am not aware of how these situations can be very fluid and can be life changing for you guys.

I have a lot of sympathy for you people down there who deal with this, but it doesn't look like it works the other way around for the events that face us everyday here like tornado outbreaks and the possibility of a major earthquake destroying this city in the future.

[dixiebreeze]

I always pay close attention to what fishermen, shrimpers and crabbers say about the weather -- they know what they're talking about. They are the best and I truly respect them.

[jkt21787]

I always pay close attention to what fishermen, shrimpers and crabbers say about the weather -- they know what they're talking about. They are the best and I truly respect them.

I have a lot of respect for Shrimper as well, he definitely has good knowledge.

And tonight, unfortunately, as seemed possible, the center has relocated north and S FL could be at serious risk from a storm organizing very quickly. This could be a major threat.

But, some of these posts feel as if I am not welcome here with my thoughts and opinions just because I don't live on the coast but am inland. If thats the case, then I'm sorry and I wont post here any longer.

[Ivanhater]

I always pay close attention to what fishermen, shrimpers and crabbers say about the weather -- they know what they're talking about. They are the best and I truly respect them.

I have a lot of respect for Shrimper as well, he definitely has good knowledge.

And tonight, unfortunately, as seemed possible, the center has relocated north and S FL could be at serious risk from a storm organizing very quickly. This could be a major threat.

But, some of these posts feel as if I am not welcome here with my thoughts and opinions just because I don't live on the coast but am inland. If thats the case, then I'm sorry and I wont post here any longer.

dont feel that way, all thoughts are welcomed