Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[ronjon]

The dynamic models have definitely shifted to the north and east from their 18Z runs. The LBAR and now the NHCA98E are running up the east coast of FL and the BAM M & D have shifted toward the south tip of the peninsula (probably mainly due to better intialization) - their tracks have been pretty consistent W-NW. I realize the global models tend to have a better track record but its definitely a trend with this group of models - be interesting to see what the next run of the globals with the more accurate intial conditions & upgraded strength come up with. The more rapid intensification of this storm, the more likely it will move NW since their is still a weakness in the ridge off the east coast of FL that won't be filled for another 24 hours or so.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?18

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RITA (AL182005) ON 20050919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050919 0000 050919 1200 050920 0000 050920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 72.9W 23.4N 74.8W 24.0N 77.0W 24.6N 79.4W
BAMM 22.7N 72.9W 23.3N 74.7W 23.9N 76.6W 24.7N 78.8W
A98E 22.7N 72.9W 24.0N 74.1W 25.0N 75.6W 25.8N 77.6W
LBAR 22.7N 72.9W 23.7N 74.5W 24.6N 76.2W 25.4N 77.6W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 69KTS 80KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 69KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050921 0000 050922 0000 050923 0000 050924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 81.8W 26.6N 85.4W 28.0N 87.7W 30.1N 90.8W
BAMM 25.5N 81.0W 27.2N 85.0W 28.9N 88.4W 31.3N 92.6W
A98E 26.9N 79.8W 29.7N 82.2W 31.8N 81.1W 32.3N 77.6W
LBAR 26.2N 78.8W 27.2N 79.7W 28.5N 79.7W 30.7N 79.7W
SHIP 89KTS 100KTS 99KTS 92KTS
DSHP 89KTS 100KTS 99KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 72.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 71.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 69.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

[Brent]

Major cane and a LOT farther north... crap.

[THead]

Recon has the left the building...er I mean storm...

Here were their findings on the way out...

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

67kt.........what's that equal at the surface? That seems like quite an increase.

anyone?

[tracyswfla]

Major cane and a LOT farther north... crap.

Brent I get nervous when you cuss.. GREAT!

[Brent]

67 knots would be about 55 knots at the surface... which is 65 mph.

[THead]

67 knots would be about 55 knots at the surface... which is 65 mph.

Wow...thanks Brent

[Brent]

Major cane and a LOT farther north... crap.

Brent I get nervous when you cuss.. GREAT!

Oh and a stronger hurricane for the Keys or wherever it hits first... 80 kts when it's still decently east of Miami's latitude, that's a strong Cat 1.

[hicksta]

Where does it take it..

[CocoCreek]

Recon has the left the building...er I mean storm...

Here were their findings on the way out...

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

67kt.........what's that equal at the surface? That seems like quite an increase.

anyone?

In general to convert knots to mph you would multiply by 1.15...then multiply be either .8 or .9 to get surface winds...

[hicksta]

How long till gfs gfdl come out

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service wasn't kidding when they said we're gonna be having a rough hurricane season.

It would be nice to get some rain from Rita though.

[Brent]

Where does it take it..

All but the UKMET are updated...

[truballer#1]

[Stratosphere747]

These models are doing the good ol night/daytime shift like with Katrina and others.

Besides the reformation of the center, don't look for drastic changes at 11.

[LAwxrgal]

Where does it take it..

All but the UKMET are updated...

That's quite a spread....so basically nobody knows where she's going...

I expect the NHC's new path to shift right, but not by much.

[MiamiensisWx]

How come the SHIP and DSHP weakens Rita after 72 hours after it reaches 100KT?

[truballer#1]

[gatorcane]

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED

From NHC 8pm advisory...interesting how it is moving NW...I don't think that was forecasted....it was moving 275 earlier today...

[WindRunner]

Both the medium and deep BAM (which is the range I assume Rita will be in later in the period) show a NO hit.

EDIT: I missed this last page of the thread