Windy wrote:
Crud! Both my sister and I are in the cone of doom!
(My sister is in east Houston and I of course am west of NOLA.)Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5
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LAwxrgal
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Crud! Both my sister and I are in the cone of doom!
(My sister is in east Houston and I of course am west of NOLA.)
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
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feederband
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SkeetoBite
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SkeetoBite
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feederband wrote:I hate to say it...But what if Katrina wasn't the biggest hurricane event this year....
Oh, I doubt this could be any bigger. That's like saying "what if Godzilla isn't the biggest lizard to come through Tokyo this year". If this storm can beat the scope of the total destruction caused by Katrina, then maybe the best place for all of us to be is a church...
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Bocadude85
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
959 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.
ok im a little confused... last time I checked Palm Beach was north of deerfeild but no watched issued?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
959 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.
ok im a little confused... last time I checked Palm Beach was north of deerfeild but no watched issued?
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kevin
Windy wrote:feederband wrote:I hate to say it...But what if Katrina wasn't the biggest hurricane event this year....
Oh, I doubt this could be any bigger. That's like saying "what if Godzilla isn't the biggest lizard to come through Tokyo this year". If this storm can beat the scope of the total destruction caused by Katrina, then maybe the best place for all of us to be is a church...
I'll sacrifice a bull to Sol Invictus if that happens. Will make a religious man out of me for sure.
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED
DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS
THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING
OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY
BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR
ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC
AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER
LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND
TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE
HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT...
HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
THE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED
DURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS
THEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING
OR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY
BE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR
ACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC
AND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER
LOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA
IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND
TURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE
HEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT...
HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
COCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 73.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W 100 KT
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#neversummer
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feederband
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Windy wrote:feederband wrote:I hate to say it...But what if Katrina wasn't the biggest hurricane event this year....
Oh, I doubt this could be any bigger. That's like saying "what if Godzilla isn't the biggest lizard to come through Tokyo this year". If this storm can beat the scope of the total destruction caused by Katrina, then maybe the best place for all of us to be is a church...
I really wasn't saying this storm in particular just that the season is still way active and I wonder and fear that there could actually be worse....
And I did hear that Tokyo is under a Big lizard watch at this time...
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The high is clearly coming....but I am not sure it will be enough to keep it south of Key West or even the mainland.
I gotta be honest here, I fear this one. It's way too early to make a "not as bad as what we had with Katrina" call, IMO.
Judging from past storms 1900-1950 that formed in this area, at this time of year, and impacted the FL mainland or the Keys, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to take a hit from a Cat. 3, with an outside chance at a 4. You watch, this thing is going to ramp up in intensity as soon as it hits the Straits. The Gulfstream/FL Current is an open invitation to intensification.
I gotta be honest here, I fear this one. It's way too early to make a "not as bad as what we had with Katrina" call, IMO.
Judging from past storms 1900-1950 that formed in this area, at this time of year, and impacted the FL mainland or the Keys, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to take a hit from a Cat. 3, with an outside chance at a 4. You watch, this thing is going to ramp up in intensity as soon as it hits the Straits. The Gulfstream/FL Current is an open invitation to intensification.
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