Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[StormWarning1]

The 00Z NOGAPS has shifted much further North, at least thru 72 hours, has Rita at 25N and 86W.

[jkt21787]

I gotta be honest here, I fear this one. It's way too early to make a "not as bad as what we had with Katrina" call, IMO.

You better make a call to Brian Norcross. He just said that on air.

[Canelaw99]

Link/graphic please stormwarning....

[Thunder44]

Nice explaination why the 67kt flight-level wind reported by recon was discarded.

[ericinmia]

The 00Z NOGAPS has shifted much further North, at least thru 72 hours, has Rita at 25N and 86W.

Link please... for to my knowledge the 00z hasn't come out yet.
-Eric

[StormWarning1]

Here it is

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp

click charts (no login required)
select 02 North america
Under the header 'chart' select 'sfc temp, wind, sfc prs', near the bottom of the list.

[ericinmia]

Wow thanks... that is a rapid update site it appears that shows the model as it comes out.

Thanks again.
-Eric

[artist]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TCPR ... gloop.html

[ObsessedMiami]

I gotta be honest here, I fear this one. It's way too early to make a "not as bad as what we had with Katrina" call, IMO.

You better make a call to Brian Norcross. He just said that on air.

What Brian said was... "It most likely wont be worse than Katrina (for SFL) but its a real borderline case on whether or not it will be AS bad as Katrina (for SFL)"

[canegrl04]

Remember early on when the projected landfall strength of Katrina was cat 3? Lets not put anything out of the realm of possibility

[Recurve]

Oh crap.

Am I right that nogaps is a reliable dynamic model, based off GFDN?

Looks like I might want to prepare for an intensifying hurricane being here Tuesday morning.

[thunderchief]

00Z GFDI and GFS shift north, Looks like the NOGAPS is going north too. The 11PM discussion said this might happen.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Here's a little twist on a realtime observation: I'm in the Caribbean on a Carnival cruise ship just northeast of San Salvador. We left Nassau at 2 pm this afternoon, looped north around Eluthera, and are heading south toward the Virgin Islands.

We started hitting rolling seas shortly after leaving Nassau, and considering our route, they have become progressively worse all night. The ship has an information board and gale force winds were posted about 2 hours ago. Sea state is not posting now for some reason, but I was just out on the balcony and it has to be 15-18. I'm on the 10th deck and waves are hitting up to the 5th or 6th.

I started asking yesterday if the captain was considering a different itinerary but I was given the whole "you are on vacation, leave the worry to us" speech in a variety of words and smiles. Ironically, tonight EVERYONE on the crew (bartenders, dealers, servers) is talking about the "storm". In fact, the main show (a Vegas style dance revue) had to be cancelled because the seas are too rough for the dancers to perform. Paper puke bags are hanging everywhere, and buckets and mops are stationed by the elevators on every deck.

Anyway, we still have an awesome satellite internet connection and I'll post again when I can, hopefully with some great pics of the sea conditions.

Keep the good info coming because this is the ONLY true source we have out here; the crew doesn't want to "worry us" so tells us NOTHING.

Thanks much!

[Windy]

Lol, SeaBrz_FL, nice to see Storm2K has their very own recon!

As you can see from



Things are about to get quite hilariously fun for you. Something tells me your cap' is going to turn that bad boy around. Can cruise ships take a good Cat 1/2 storm? Probably, but if I were you I'd tell the cap that if I wanted to ride out hurricanes on big ships, I'd have joined the Navy!

[fci]

Here's a little twist on a realtime observation: I'm in the Caribbean on a Carnival cruise ship just northeast of San Salvador. We left Nassau at 2 pm this afternoon, looped north around Eluthera, and are heading south toward the Virgin Islands.

We started hitting rolling seas shortly after leaving Nassau, and considering our route, they have become progressively worse all night. The ship has an information board and gale force winds were posted about 2 hours ago. Sea state is not posting now for some reason, but I was just out on the balcony and it has to be 15-18. I'm on the 10th deck and waves are hitting up to the 5th or 6th.

I started asking yesterday if the captain was considering a different itinerary but I was given the whole "you are on vacation, leave the worry to us" speech in a variety of words and smiles. Ironically, tonight EVERYONE on the crew (bartenders, dealers, servers) is talking about the "storm". In fact, the main show (a Vegas style dance revue) had to be cancelled because the seas are too rough for the dancers to perform. Paper puke bags are hanging everywhere, and buckets and mops are stationed by the elevators on every deck.

Anyway, we still have an awesome satellite internet connection and I'll post again when I can, hopefully with some great pics of the sea conditions.

Keep the good info coming because this is the ONLY true source we have out here; the crew doesn't want to "worry us" so tells us NOTHING.

Thanks much!

Which ship are you on?
Took one a few months ago; The Valor.

I thought that they were so careful and can't imagine that they are willing to brave any of Rita.

Good luck on the rest of your cruise.
Say hi to Gilligan.(sorry, couldn't resist.....)

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND FOR GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE
SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 445 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 73.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[karenfromheaven]

Oh crap.

Am I right that nogaps is a reliable dynamic model, based off GFDN?

Looks like I might want to prepare for an intensifying hurricane being here Tuesday morning.

NOGAPS is a reliable global model supported and run by the Navy. Another reliable global model is the GFS model. The data from both these models are used as a basis in separate runs of the well-known dynamical hurricane model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The dynamical model run with the GFS data as its basis is known as the GFDL model solution. The dynamical model run with the NOGAPS data as its basis is known as the GFDN model solution. The GFDL is a more readily reported model run, although the NHC has access to both solutions. If anyone has a link to GFDN model runs, I would sure appreciate a post.

[deltadog03]

well, look at the new run of the UKMET....i know it hasn't been the best this year...but, alarming if that is the path....goes right over me...

[artist]

[HouTXmetro]

I see that, no way model consensus could be that good this far out.

Houston may be under the gun.