5 AM track shifted further north...very possible

[StormFury]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I have observed a few satellite loops and a surface map from weather.com. I have found a few interesting things to note...

First of all, in case none of you have seen Mr. Derek Ortt's updated track, here it is...http://www.nwhhc.com/atl182005graphics.html. His track is north of the NHC track. Interestingly, he had the track near the NHC's 11 PM track earlier today. Now he has once again shifted the track because of the new center near 23 N.

Next, please visit the weather channel home page (http://www.weather.com/index.html) and take note of a trough or funnel boundary extending from New England to Louisiana. I believe this trough is responsible for causing a weakness in the ridge. This is evident if you pay particular attention to the last frames of the WV loop imagery. From this loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html), you can clearly see signs of the ridge weakening as the dry air has begun to show signs of fading away from the northern half of Florida and across the Atantic up to North Carolina as clouds and moisture associated with the trough nudge there way south from Georgia. Furthermore, the storm is still moving west northwest and not due west. A continued west northwest movement takes the storm in the general direction of Homestead. Furthermore, an ULL near Cuba's southern coast, has been responsible for influencing the track of Rita.

Last, it is interesting to see some of the computer models (about 3) shift north.

If I was in the NHC, I would have argued for a track through the Middle Keys. Tomorrow morning, it will be interesting and shocking to see a 50 or 100 mile shift to the north. I wonder if the computer models have correctly initialized the center of Rita in the correct position in the latest runs? If not, expect an even more northern shift. I just don't see the ridge holding up that great, especially since this is late September. Remember what happened to Frances and Jeanne? They were never pulled wsw and hardly maintained a due west movement towards the coast until they were within 50 miles of the coast. For most of the time, these September systems of last years maintained a WNW direction. Because of this, I predict Rita to make landfall near Homestead.

As for intensity, I do not understand why the NHC keep Rita a tropical storm until Andros Island. Think back to the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane which ravaged the Keys with 180+ mph winds. It developed near where Rita formed and was also a tropical storm around the SE Bahama islands. Unlike Katrina, Rita has formed slightly to the east, will face less shear, and will have slightly more time to rapidly intensify. As a result, I anticipate at least a category 2 storm near Homestead. Remember how quickly Charley intensified in just a few hours. I remember its strenghtened from 115 mph winds to 145 mph winds in between the 11 AM and 2 PM advisory!

I believe Miami and the Keys are in imminent danger.

PS. Here is the NOAA page where you can find all the satellite loops. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[Canelaw99]

A well reasoned and well explained forecast IMO, although you could have it making landfall elsewhere

[NastyCat4]

Because of this, I predict Rita to make landfall near Homestead.

Nah---too far North. You're overestimating the previous history. It is a Keys storm, as it will turn W, and possibly even South of West.

[artist]

nastycat - what do you mean?

[Bocadude85]

I agree I think the track will be adjusted farther north at the 5am advisory a long with atleast some kind of ts watch for palm beach county, still cant quite figure out how there is a hurricane watch and ts warning in deerfeild beach which is 3 miles from me and yet not even a ts watch here

[StormFury]

Tropical Storm Rita's movement can be clearly detected from observing the Dvorak Floater Loop. In order to see the storm's general movement, use your peripheral vision and concentrate only on the Central Dense Canopy (the blob of thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation). You should be able to clearly see a WNW direction...in the direction of the extreme southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Also check out the visible loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[bahamaswx]

Excellent post.

[StormFury]

In the tropical analysis section, I found this recent post quite similar to mine but with more details and analysis. NEXRAD, the author of this post, is a college student (that's what I picked up from his last lines) and probably has much more knowledge than me in regards to forecasting hurricanes. Although a rather long read, it is absolutely worth the time! Here is the link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74641

[Windtalker1]

Windtalker1
Tropical Wave



Joined: 31 Jul 2005
Posts: 61

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:43 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. My take on the direction of Rita...............If you look at the larger scale of the Water Vapor Loop, you will see that the High just off the Coast of Georgia is beginning to retreat alittle North. This is why I think we are getting a more NW movement at this time. (look at the moisture forming off the Georgia Coast...the High is losing it's grip) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html This will only be Temporary but until then, how far North will she go. Will she get as Far North as the Central Bahamas? If she does, Hurricane Warnings are sure to go up for Miami Dade up through Palm Beach County. I feel she will cross through Broward County as a Cat 1 Storm almost like Katrina did but head straight West without the SW movement like Katrina did. Just my opinion.
Just a small statement I made last night....seems I am not the only one who saw this.

[Javlin]

Because of this, I predict Rita to make landfall near Homestead.

Nah---too far North. You're overestimating the previous history. It is a Keys storm, as it will turn W, and possibly even South of West.

I lisetened to Max Mayfiels last night on FNC and he said NO and the NGOM where not out of the woods yet.My jaw about dropped for I figured a TX or MX threat.Center relocation now the troph go figure I would like for it to go poof.I live in the middle of the W end of Biloxi just the thought makes me want to run and I have stayed for all of them since Camille.

[Amanzi]

Good to see you posting again SF... I have missed your input

[OtherHD]

Good to see you posting again SF... I have missed your input

This is a different SF..