Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#321 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:11 am

BTW, SeaBrzFL -- if you want to check out the sea condition forecast, go to the Navy site here:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/ww3_area.cgi?color=b&area=natl

Get ready for a rollercoaster!

artist · #322 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:16 am

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 7&tau=2520
quite a bit further north on the nogaps here, huh?

Recurve · #323 Postby **Recurve** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:35 am

karenfromheaven wrote:
Recurve wrote:Oh crap.

Am I right that nogaps is a reliable dynamic model, based off GFDN?

Looks like I might want to prepare for an intensifying hurricane being here Tuesday morning.

NOGAPS is a reliable global model supported and run by the Navy. Another reliable global model is the GFS model. The data from both these models are used as a basis in separate runs of the well-known dynamical hurricane model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The dynamical model run with the GFS data as its basis is known as the GFDL model solution. The dynamical model run with the NOGAPS data as its basis is known as the GFDN model solution. The GFDL is a more readily reported model run, although the NHC has access to both solutions. If anyone has a link to GFDN model runs, I would sure appreciate a post.

Thank you for the excellent explanation. I had it backward.

dwg71 · #324 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:35 am

If she doesnt pick up speed, i think the northern trend will continue. Thats not good for central gulf coast.

#325 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:12 am

The 0z GFDL is showing the rapid intesification again....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... l/slp6.png

remember that is not surface level winds... but it still is showing a cat3 at the surface prior to passing south of florida. If is has the intesification right, and track wrong... :eek:

that would catch all of south florida by surprise.

Earlier it dropped the intesification idea, and now its back...
Time to wait and see, how it verifies...
-Eric

superfly · #326 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:24 am

The economy would be devastated by major cane hit on Houston. New Orleans and Houston are (were) the country's top 2 ports and both are (were) top 10 in the world.

#327 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:42 am

Well, well, well. The models do shift. Even the globals. The UKmet sure has flipped around.

Thunder44 · #328 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:44 am

653
WHXX01 KWBC 190706
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM RITA (AL182005) ON 20050919 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050919 0600 050919 1800 050920 0600 050920 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.6N 73.9W 23.2N 75.9W 23.7N 78.2W 24.3N 80.6W
BAMM 22.6N 73.9W 23.0N 75.8W 23.4N 77.8W 24.1N 79.9W
A98E 22.6N 73.9W 22.8N 75.7W 23.1N 77.7W 23.5N 79.8W
LBAR 22.6N 73.9W 23.0N 75.6W 23.7N 77.4W 24.3N 79.2W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 72KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050921 0600 050922 0600 050923 0600 050924 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 82.9W 25.9N 86.8W 27.3N 90.4W 29.8N 94.4W
BAMM 24.8N 82.1W 26.3N 86.1W 27.8N 90.6W 29.8N 95.2W
A98E 24.2N 81.9W 25.3N 85.4W 27.4N 88.7W 30.9N 91.9W
LBAR 24.9N 80.7W 26.0N 82.8W 27.4N 84.0W 29.3N 85.6W
SHIP 90KTS 100KTS 99KTS 93KTS
DSHP 90KTS 100KTS 99KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.6N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 72.2W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 70.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

6z Models initialized at 50kts. So winds could be 60mph at 5am.

artist · #329 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:48 am

the models were initialized 22.6n 73.9w
and the vortex showed the center just recently at
22 deg 32 min N
073 deg 54 min W

dwg71 · #330 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:49 am

NHC has center at 23N 73.7W, models initialized SW of that.

artist · #331 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:51 am

so I'm reading this wrong? :oops:

Help me out here please. TIA

from above -
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.6N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
seriously here guys - please show me what I am doing wrong so I don't post it wrong again!

oneness · #332 Postby **oneness** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:03 am

Wow, a pass close to, or directly over the keys ... as an intensifying (possibly high) Cat 3 ... ?

I hope everyone can get out

artist · #333 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:10 am

report from Turks and Caicos -

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/tci.shtml

Rita.
From: "Ger and Joan" <gerandjoan at tciway.tc>
Date: Mon, 19 Sep 2005 01:06:12 -0400

Ok, well now we are in the throes of Rita. All day nothing but cloud cover and then by 9pm some lightning activity. By midnight the wind and rain picked up and it's going full force now. Thankfully for us it is early days for Rita. Good luck Bahamas, Cuba etc! Take care.

Thunder44 · #334 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:23 am

artist wrote:so I'm reading this wrong? Help me out here please. TIA

from above -
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.6N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
seriously here guys - please show me what I am doing wrong so I don't post it wrong again!

You're reading right. The motion is also just north of due west now.

artist · #335 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:30 am

thanks Thunder - I'm not real good at this stuff and want to be corrected when I'm wrong!

artist · #336 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:33 am

latest from Miami - (as well as others)

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

#337 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:46 am

Tropical Storm Rita Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 19, 2005

...Rita gathering strength in the Bahamas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys
from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northwest Bahamas...
excluding Grand Bahama and the Abacos.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
Deerfield Beach southward to Florida City and continuing westward
to East Cape Sable.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...for the southeast and central Bahamas...and for Grand
Bahama and the Abacos.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Villa
Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del
Rio. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from west of East Cape
Sable to Chokoloskee Florida.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was located
near latitude 22.7 north...longitude 74.3 west or about 250
miles... 405 km... southeast of Nassau and about 490 miles... 790
km...east-southeast of Key West Florida.

Rita is moving toward the west near 9 mph ...15 km/hr. A motion
just a little north of due west is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected...and Rita could become
a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconaissance
aircraft was 998 mb...29.47 inches.

Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over the southeastern and central Bahamas...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Storm totals of 6 to 10
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches will be
possible in the Florida Keys and northwestern Cuba...with 3 to 5
inches possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the
Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet are possible along the extreme southeastern
Florida coast...and in the northwestern Bahamas.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...22.7 N... 74.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

$$

#338 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:46 am

Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 19, 2005

the new reconaissance aircraft in the system at 07z found that the
pressure had fallen to 999 mb...and first satellite images after
the eclipse show that convection is now wrapping around to the
northwest of the center and has taken a more banded appearance. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant had 44 kt at the surface...with
flight level winds in this quadrant of 57 kt. The northeast
quadrant has not yet been sampled...and I presume that higher winds
will be found there during the next hour or so. The initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt.
The last two aircraft fixes indicate an almost due west motion...but
with all the center reformations that have occurred it is difficult
to ascertain a representative motion. My best judgement is 280/8.
Rita has already passed the longitude of the break in the
subtropical ridge...and will come under increasing pressure to have
the track nudge to the left. Furthermore...now that the convection
is becoming a little more symmetric...there should be less
likelihood of additional northward reformations of the center.
Model guidance adjusted to the current location is very tightly
clustered on a path through the Florida Straits south of Key
West...and I have adjusted the official forecast slightly south of
the previous advisory. There has been a fairly significant shift
in the guidance late in the forecast period...with the global
models abruptly weakening the mid-level high over the western Gulf
and allowing Rita to begin a sharper recurvature track. While I
have adjusted the 120-hr point about 120 nm north of the previous
advisory...I am still well to the left of most of the 120-hr
guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low in the northwest
Caribbean is shifting eastward...and as it does so the southerly
shear over Rita will continue to decrease. This should allow for a
faster development rate. The official forecast is very close to
the SHIPS guidance.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/0900z 22.7n 74.3w 50 kt
12hr VT 19/1800z 23.1n 76.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 20/0600z 23.6n 78.5w 70 kt
36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt
48hr VT 21/0600z 24.2n 84.0w 90 kt
72hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 24/0600z 27.5n 96.0w 95 kt

$$

oneness · #339 Postby **oneness** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:47 am

I get the impression from the discussion that the projected intensity forecast and rate of strengthening has not quite sunk in yet.

Meso · #340 Postby **Meso** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:50 am

Arg duplicate :S

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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