Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

southerngale · #421 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:08 am

cjrciadt wrote:Noon model runs.

Are all of those updated?

#422 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:09 am

boca_chris wrote:
Ok, we need to get solid confirmation that the high is sliding west. How can we do that.

I don't see it.

Look here, and put the animation on kinda fast. See that clockwise flow in the gulf retreating west?

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

sma10 · #423 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:10 am

Rita is already moving towards the west. Landfall later tonight in SFL starting to look less likely.

#424 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:10 am

southerngale wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:Noon model runs.

Are all of those updated?

Most them are different than the 0600 run. The LBAR is well I cant say without trouble. Only the Clipper saves us all.

#425 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:15 am

Rita is already moving towards the west. Landfall later tonight in SFL starting to look less likely.

yes I agree.

milankovitch · #426 Postby **milankovitch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:16 am

Bit shift to the north could be bad news for the Keys. GDFL takes the storm to a cat 3 just west of Grand Bahama in 24 hours, then right over Key West. Also a slight shift north again for the Gulf coast.

#427 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

based on the latest runs, the NHC may have to shift the track right for the latter portion of the forecast period. Thoughts?

dwg71 · #428 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 am

sma10 wrote:Rita is already moving towards the west. Landfall later tonight in SFL starting to look less likely.

agreed, its not gaining much lattitude at all. I would expect models to begin shifting west and south if path continues Due West.

Also, haven't the models been underestimating ridge strength all summer?

wxwonder12 · #429 Postby **wxwonder12** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:21 am

The majority of the convection looks to be to the N of Rita so I would say even up to Palm Beach County could be in for some heavy rains, ect. even if it dosen't go any further N at all.

#430 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:30 am

sma10 wrote:Rita is already moving towards the west. Landfall later tonight in SFL starting to look less likely.

I disagree, and it has nothing to do with where I live....I've been watching the news all morning, and even Max Mayfield was hinting at a northern shift to the track at 11am, as well as an extension of the watches/warnings further north. In my opinion, they wouldn't be doing those things if the danger wasn't there.

Wx - I bet you're right. I know most of Dade is already experiencing winds of 18mph....

As an aside, when TWC's Mike Sidell is somewhere, does the storm follow him or run away? :wink:

#431 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:31 am

Here is a WV Loop showing the high over LA. & TX. that appears to be moving west. :eek:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/satellite/noaaport_loop.cgi?/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SYS/WV/

#432 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:34 am

TampaFl wrote:Here is a WV Loop showing the high over LA. & TX. that appears to be moving west.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/satellite/noaaport_loop.cgi?/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SYS/WV/

Yup it is moving west.... :cry:

Flakeys · #433 Postby **Flakeys** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:36 am

Max Mayfield was just on the radio saying the track will probably be moved north. HEAVY traffic heading north on US1 but only about half the buildings are boarded up.

LaBreeze · #434 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:36 am

What impact would the high moving west cause for the future track of Rita?

#435 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:39 am

I don't understand how a high at these lattitudes can move west. They typically move east.

Please expound on the potential ramifications of this westerly shift and it's effects on the FL Keys and South Florida.

#436 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:43 am

boca_chris - go back, in this thread, one page (to pg. 16) and there are a couple of posts about the implication this would have on S. FL.

JTD · #437 Postby **JTD** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:45 am

milankovitch wrote:Bit shift to the north could be bad news for the Keys. GDFL takes the storm to a cat 3 just west of Grand Bahama in 24 hours, then right over Key West. Also a slight shift north again for the Gulf coast.

Wow!! Look at where CONU is. That's the model consensus BTW; track will be moved there at 11 by NHC.

boca · #438 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:47 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's hard to see the center but the whole mass is moving WNW to me atleast. Hey come to PBC its safe here,what a crock.

Website · #439 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:47 am

TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z MON SEP 19 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY AND WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF
GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER
INLET.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......125NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 75.2W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.4N 76.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 81.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.7N 84.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 75.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

#440 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:49 am

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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