Rita and the Upper Texas Coast

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:38 am

Normally would not do this but here is the Houston-Galveston AFD. All of us along the Upper TX Coast need to take this very seriously and start thinking about preparing for a major hurricane

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE ON TROPICAL STORM RITA AND THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
AN IMPACT ON THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE 500 MB HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK MAINTAINING THE HOT DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM THE LAST FEW
DAYS SO UNDERCUT IT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HOWEVER...THINK OUR
HOTTEST DAY MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE STORM HELPS TO BUMP OUR TEMPS UP
A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMP RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN IN GALVESTON THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND AT ALL THREE MAJOR
SITES WEDNESDAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM RITA IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL MADE MAJOR SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH IN THEIR TRACKS OF RITA...INCLUDING THE CANADIAN (UPPER TX
COAST)...THE GFDL AND UKMET (MIDDLE TX COAST)...AND THE ECMWF (NEAR
BRO). MEANWHILE THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS
SHOWING THE STORM RECURVING TO THE NORTH INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY.
THE OFFICIAL TPC 120 HOUR FORECAST FOR THE STORM HAS IT CENTERED 140
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON AT 1AM SATURDAY AS A BORDERLINE CAT 2/
CAT 3 HURRICANE.

HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD TO CLOSELY FOLLOW TPC FORECAST AND THE EXPECTATION
THAT THE STORM WILL LIFT NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THU NIGHT...
THEN CHANCE POPS SPREADING INLAND FRIDAY. WILL FORECAST HIGHEST POPS
ON SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY THIS PERIOD.

FURTHER CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST FOR RITA WILL OCCUR AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...AND WE WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES. PERSONS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR LATEST TPC ADVISORIES ON RITA...AND FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FROM THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE AND LOCAL MEDIA.

35

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE PRODUCTS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR FCST TRACK OF TS...AND EVENTUALLY HUR...RITA. COULD SEE TS
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRI AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT & EARLY SATURDAY. OF COURSE THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CHANGE A FEW TIMES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FIRST SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE COAST
THURS AFTN...AND CONTINUE INCREASING IN SIZE THRU FRI NIGHT OR EARLY
SAT. WILL ALSO BEGIN PLAYING UP WATER LEVELS IN THE TIDE FORECAST AS
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY. DON'T
ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY AT THE EARLIEST WHEN WINDS
BECOME MORE NE OR EAST AS THE STORM APPROACHES. (WINDS SHOULD HAVE A
MORE NRLY COMPONENT ON THURS). MARINERS NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST FCST TRACK FOR RITA. 47

#2 Postby **Roxy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:26 am

Maybe we could use this thread for info for those of us on the upper texas coast...closures, weather statements etc...

I've not heard anything official, but at work this morning people sure are jumpy. Those who live on the island won't be here starting tomorrow to load up their homes and get out....and everyone else says wednesday (I work in Clear Lake, so many will have to leave)...but we've still no official word from work about closing but I suspect if this track persists, it won't be long.

Any other information from the Houston/Galveston area?

HouTXmetro · #3 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:35 am

Could this be the real thing after 22 years?

KatDaddy · #4 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:50 am

Good idea Roxy. I work at South Shore in League City. We will need this type thread for the Houston-Galveston Area.

#5 Postby **Roxy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:52 am

HouTxMetro: the general concesus here, is YES..but that could just be panic setting in.

Katdaddy, we aren't far from you...on Bay Area Blvd, in the old IBM building.

I think if the track persists, they order evactuations early. Thoughts?

HouTXmetro · #6 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:03 am

I live off of Beltway 8 and Beamer. There is a Bayou 3 blocks away from my house which is apart of the Clear Creek water shed. I really hope I don't have to evacuate.

perk · #7 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 am

Roxy i also think that is a great idea. I'm also shocked that we are even talking a thread for the upper Texas coast, this is reality sitting in.

#8 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 am

Expect a shift towards the upper Texas coast at the 10am advisory...looks like they are going to adjust right as needed.

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:29 am

Air Force Met wrote:Expect a shift towards the upper Texas coast at the 10am advisory...looks like they are going to adjust right as needed.

Well, the only good thing about that (for us) is that they're usually not right on target 4-5 days out.

#10 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:31 am

Judge Eckels already on talk radio this morning talking about Rita. They are definitely on guard.

#11 Postby **Roxy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:36 am

southerngale wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Expect a shift towards the upper Texas coast at the 10am advisory...looks like they are going to adjust right as needed.

Well, the only good thing about that (for us) is that they're usually not right on target 4-5 days out.

I agree with that thinking.

But eitherway after Katrina.... if we are in the cone, I anticipate evacs and closings.

LaBreeze · #12 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:40 am

Just wondering how soon would evacs and closure occur in Texas or LA.? How soon are those plans made by officials?

#13 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:45 am

I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Houston (and where I evacuated to for Kat) and she had NO CLUE there was even a storm out there...much less one threatening to make 2nd landfall along the Gulf Coast somewhere...

GalvestonDuck · #14 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:46 am

LaBreeze wrote:Just wondering how soon would evacs and closure occur in Texas or LA.? How soon are those plans made by officials?

My guess (and hope) is that we would get the word here on Wednesday. If it usually takes 36 hours to evac Galveston and now we have to take into consideration the fact that Houston is more crowded than usual and there will be more people north of us who will have to leave also (is "re-evacuate" a word?), then I would hope we'll be making a move on Thursday if the track continues to point in our direction.

CajunMama · #15 Postby **CajunMama** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:52 am

LAwxrgal wrote:I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Houston (and where I evacuated to for Kat) and she had NO CLUE there was even a storm out there...much less one threatening to make 2nd landfall along the Gulf Coast somewhere...

She was clueless with Katrina too wasn't she? Watching the weather on the news should be mandatory for those living along the gulf coast. :wink:

#16 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:53 am

And the new path as of now puts it in Galveston Bay. :cry:

#17 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:54 am

CajunMama wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:I just got off the phone with my sister who lives in Houston (and where I evacuated to for Kat) and she had NO CLUE there was even a storm out there...much less one threatening to make 2nd landfall along the Gulf Coast somewhere...

She was clueless with Katrina too wasn't she? Watching the weather on the news should be mandatory for those living along the gulf coast.

Yep she was...she was clueless until I drummed it into her that I had to pay her an impromptu visit.

DJJordan · #18 Postby **DJJordan** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:54 am

And that is why it's very important to spread the word even mouth to mouth. Tell your neighbors and relatives of the impending storm that possibly could hit later this week. Just give people a heads up. Just my two cents. [/quote]

#19 Postby **Houstonia** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:57 am

LAwxrgal wrote:And the new path as of now puts it in Galveston Bay.

and as a cat 2/3 or as Jeff Masters puts it on his Wunderground blog:

There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

BLHutch · #20 Postby **BLHutch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:52 am

Greetings fellow Texans. All I can say is :eek:

I live in League City (in the Landing). Naturally I will be keeping an eye on this one.

Brady H.

Rita and the Upper Texas Coast

Rita and the Upper Texas Coast

Who is online