Rita to 921 mb in 36 hours - GFDL

#2 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:55 am

that's for you GFDL

Solaris · #3 Postby **Solaris** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:57 am

Rita speedin up: here comes the eye:

#4 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:57 am

That's a predictor of rapid intensification...

canegrl04 · #5 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:58 am

Rita

JTD · #6 Postby **JTD** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:00 am

Hope it's not a repeat of 1935 :eek:

:

The storm formed east of the Bahamas in late August and traveled due west through the islands. It then began a gentle turn to the northwest and headed straight for Islamorada in the Upper Keys, where it struck on Labor Day, Monday, September 2 around 8 p.m. The winds at landfall are thought to have reached 200 mph, but later estimates are now at around 160 mph. and the central pressure was reported as low as 26.35 inches of mercury (892 hPa). This was the record low pressure for the Western Hemisphere until it was surpassed by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_Day_ ... ne_of_1935

#7 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:00 am

That pic that just got posted...looks like Rita is a cane NOW! :eek:

DESTRUCTION5 · #8 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:00 am

Very possible...not 921 but VCat 3 is not out od the question in 36 Hrs

cajungal · #9 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:01 am

And that is the same model that is the furthest east bringing into the central Louisiana coast. Very close to where Lili came ashore. The NHC is not just mentioning Texas anymore. They are saying Louisiana has to watch it closely. :cry:

#10 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:02 am

CG....what are our local fearless leaders saying. I'm not near a TV. Are they still downplaying Rita?

#11 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:02 am

jason0509 wrote:Hope it's not a repeat of 1935 :

The storm formed east of the Bahamas in late August and traveled due west through the islands. It then began a gentle turn to the northwest and headed straight for Islamorada in the Upper Keys, where it struck on Labor Day, Monday, September 2 around 8 p.m. The winds at landfall are thought to have reached 200 mph, but later estimates are now at around 160 mph. and the central pressure was reported as low as 26.35 inches of mercury (892 hPa). This was the record low pressure for the Western Hemisphere until it was surpassed by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_Day_ ... ne_of_1935

Rapid instensity benchmark.
0 GMT 9/ 1/35 23.7N 75.3W 70 -999 Tropical Storm
0 GMT 9/ 3/35 24.5N 80.1W 160 892 Category 5 Hurricane

#12 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:03 am

And it seems a smidge north - more like landfall in the mid-upper Keys, or is that just my eyes? :eek:

HurricaneGirl · #13 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:03 am

Solaris wrote:Rita speedin up: here comes the eye:

Holy Crap! There's an eye! :eek:

#14 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:04 am

cajungal wrote:And that is the same model that is the furthest east bringing into the central Louisiana coast. Very close to where Lili came ashore. The NHC is not just mentioning Texas anymore. They are saying Louisiana has to watch it closely.

And this is the same model that nailed Kat unfortunately, and the conditions surrounding Rita, I'm told, are very similar.

djtil · #15 Postby **djtil** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:09 am

actually an eye is warmer than the surrounding cdo....the "eye" that people want to see is actually a cold blowup of convection that happens to be circular right now.....

Solaris · #16 Postby **Solaris** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:12 am

hurricane hunters should find rita as cat 2 in the next hours

djtil · #17 Postby **djtil** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:14 am

hurricane hunters should find rita as cat 2 in the next hours

ill bet 100 paychecks against this...

milankovitch · #18 Postby **milankovitch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:23 am

Well the GFDL has the storm at 975mb at 18Z or in and hour and a half. The 6Z GFDL is just a tad generous with this storm so take what the model puts out at 36 hours with a heaping bowl of salt.

Also, I agree with poster above this hurricane won't be a cat 2 at next recon (afternoon) maybe a minimal hurricane let's not get carried away here people.

cajungal · #19 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:27 am

skysummit wrote:CG....what are our local fearless leaders saying. I'm not near a TV. Are they still downplaying Rita?

Yes. But, they got to know that not all their viewers are in New Orleans. We are West of New Orleans. And a Lili like track would put Terrebonne Parish very close to the NE side. I would hate to see it make landfall anywhere in St. Mary Parish like Morgan City.

#20 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 11:33 am

Oh definately CG. They need to remember that all of SE La and south MS watch them. I'm by the TV now so I'm looking forward to WWL's noon broadcast, however, I know they'll be talking puppets like they always are.

Rita to 921 mb in 36 hours - GFDL

Rita to 921 mb in 36 hours - GFDL

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