Model Agreement: Houston Metro Area (UKMET, BAM, GFS, GDFL)

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HouTXmetro
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Model Agreement: Houston Metro Area (UKMET, BAM, GFS, GDFL)

#1 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:46 pm

http://maps.wunderground.com/tropical/t ... model.html
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Roxy
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#2 Postby Roxy » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:50 pm

I just noticed the same thing and I find it shocking to see them all agreeing so far out.

Or, would you call this "agreement"? Or am I just assuming it's "agreement"....they all take a little different route but end up in the same spot...

very odd.
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#3 Postby alicia-w » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:51 pm

some of those model runs are pretty old.....
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#4 Postby milankovitch » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:55 pm

alicia-w wrote:some of those model runs are pretty old.....


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Much better site for model runs.
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#5 Postby gtalum » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:55 pm

12z (8 AM EDT) is not that old...
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#6 Postby loon » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:55 pm

The four models in his subject line all agree....and are from 8am
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#7 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:56 pm

Which means that at this point Houson/Galvestion will be fine. :wink: Because you know that this far out they are bound to change, happens every time. :P
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#8 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:00 pm

I believe the GFDL is new.

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#9 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:08 pm

The GFDL now takes aim at the upper TX/Coast.
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#10 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:14 pm

If Rita hits the upper Texas coast that will mean us Dallas area residents will get some much needed rain
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#11 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:20 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:The GFDL now takes aim at the upper TX/Coast.


Yes it does for this run. I thought that was the new model plot, but it seemed to have gone back to an older run. Hmm....I don't know what's the problem with that site.
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mvtrucking
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#12 Postby mvtrucking » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:30 pm

gtalum wrote:12z (8 AM EDT) is not that old...


Link to the actual 12Z run? I have the 6Z but would like the 12Z. Thanks.
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#13 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:35 pm

Image
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#14 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:37 pm

*duplicate post*
Last edited by Windy on Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby mvtrucking » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:40 pm

Thank you Windy
Last edited by mvtrucking on Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#16 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:42 pm

No....I believe the site actually flipped back to the old runs. That map is an old map.
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#17 Postby f5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:47 pm

Remember with Katrina most of the models had it centered on the Flordia Panhandle but as Katrina moved west the moved moved west then just sat over N.O
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#18 Postby f5 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:47 pm

Remember with Katrina most of the models had it centered on the Flordia Panhandle but as Katrina moved west the moved moved west then just sat over N.O
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#19 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:00 pm

Yeah, but the models are far from just sitting over Houston for the next week. We are still five days out. The major model shift will happen once Rita gets into the Gulf and then everything can be interpreted and everyone will have a much better idea of where she will go. We can only wait and guess for now.
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#20 Postby raynpa » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:09 pm

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
BRINGS RITA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A HURRICANE...THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FORECAST WILL BE REVISED TO BRING
THE CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH...SO RESIDENTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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