My Perspective on Rita 1

[Jim Hughes]

The following post is NOT an offiial forecast and should NOT be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by professional institution including strom2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I had wanted to post something over the weekend but family obligations did not allow me to do much research. I actually knew that I would not have to do much research but I still wanted to check over a few things a little more closely.

As many of you know there has been plenty of increased space weather the prior 1-2 weeks and I believe we are starting to see the effects of this now. The solar wind has weakned considerably and it is wlll below the 500 km/sec level. It has been at this level or slightly below since 18/21z

Look under solar wind bulk speed heading.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

SOHO's graphs show that the solar wind has been diminishing consistently for the past 3-4 days or more...Top of each chart...solar wind values on left.


http://umtof.umd.edu/pm


Geomagnetic activity is also very quiet compared to last week so the magnetic field is in a more relaxed state. I believe this is important in the overall scheme of things.


Look under "A" for the daily value readings at the three different areas...Mid & high latitude and planetary. The lower the number the weaker the geomagnetic activity.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt

Everything I have pointed out above, along with the increased ionization in the ionosphere during the past week or more, strongly suggests to me that we have a tropical storm that is going to develop rather quickly into a very strong hurricane.

I am going to be a little more bullish than most although I have NOT read all the forecasts so do not be offended if you also have called for this type of development.

I sincerely believe that TS Rita will strengthen continually over the next two days and that she will be a major hurricane by late Wednesday. I am forecasting Rita to have winds between 100-110 mph and a barometric pressure of around 945mb by 21/21z.

This level could even be reached sooner. Remember I am in the early stages of this possible forecasting mechanism. It is a little tough to try and figure out the possible feedback time between the ionopshere and these tropical systems along with the standard meteorological environment.

(Of course a temporary landfall would reduce the above numbers)

I feel confident , in the 80% range, that the above numbers will come true. I feel less confident about a storm track. I have heard many people mention Texas. I could easily see that occurring but my methodolgy does not do well in the GOM this far out. It seems to work better in the Atlantic . So I will pass on a forecast track.

One other note. Here is a URL to a research article discussing the ionosphere and lightening. I will hopefully add it to a longer discussion one day in reference to how this all could work...space weather...tropical effect.

It describes how the earth get's rid of particles ...which can be caused by increased space weather...in the Van Allan belt ...to make what is called a safe zone. This may be a natural reaction of the earth's electrical environment after increased space weather.

Tropical systems develop from increased thunderstorm activity in the tropics. So this may be why I have seen that TD's have a tendency to form after certain types of space weather conditions. Just a thought.


http://sev.prnewswire.com/aerospace-def ... 005-1.html


Jim

[SamSagnella]

Jim,
Fascinating as always. The 500km/sec 'threshold' for solar winds you have created seems to hold true and as of 19/1700z it is below 420km/sec. Rapid intensification seems to be underway and also seems to agree with your forecasting methods. Fascinating.
Sam

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,
Fascinating as always. The 500km/sec 'threshold' for solar winds you have created seems to hold true and as of 19/1700z it is below 420km/sec. Rapid intensification seems to be underway and also seems to agree with your forecasting methods. Fascinating.
Sam

Yes she has and this was one of my biggest fears. I mentioned in my developmental forecast thread a couple for days ago to watch out for the 20th...not knowing when the solar winds would get this low because of all of the recent flaring/eruptions.

I knew last night that they were low enough but I did not feel like posting a thread...saying she is going to strengthen. I wanted to give a hard number... and I have. Do I wish I had posted this forecast this morning? Yes but this was the quickest that I could put somethig together.

Everyone knows my feelings/ rules so anyone could have made this forecast by now if you understand what I am talking about. The potential was there. We just needed the other ingredients. We now have them. So here comes the results...I hope she does not strengthen beyond this scope in the long run .....but it is possible.



Jim

[Terrell]

That's a very interesting way to look at it. It makes sense that Solar winds, as well as any of Sol's other activity affecting Earth's weather.

[Jim Hughes]

That's a very interesting way to look at it. It makes sense that Solar winds, as well as any of Sol's other activity affecting Earth's weather.

What is going on now with Hurircane Rita, is exactly what has been going on with all the major hurricanes this year and last year. I have gone back over historical data even further back and noticed similar patterns but the space weather data is limited the further you go back.

The 20th was an obvious day for strengthening with my methodology and everyone is now talking about how she is either bombing out now or she is going to overnight and into tomorrow. I mentioned the 20th time frame more than 36 hours ago here.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20

I did not mention today because allot of this stuff is cyclical in nature. Some pople are going to have to seriously consider what I am talking about sooner or later.

So I am supposed to believe that for the past 7-10 days , when the solar wind speed was very high ...... way above the 500 km/sec level...and the geomagnetic activity was also very high high.... that this was just a coincidence again and not only were no major hurricanes able to form ...since there were some hurricanes around... but no TD's could form either.

Then it all calms down and we have two TD's form instantly, around the time frame I specified on August 29th and now one of them is forecasted to be a major in maybe 24-48 hours. Right as the solar wind has fallen below the 500 km/sec threshold once again.

Space weather does have an effect upon the tropics and you are not going to have these majors without certain conditions present...on both sides..... The current way of thinking.... and my way.


Jim

[Terrell]

Jim, I was agreeing with you, maybe I could have worded it better. Given that Sol is the biggest source of energy in the Solar System, and Earth isn't very far away 1AU I thought Solar Wind is a very interesting addition to the equation. Not to mention my love of everything Space related.

[Deb321]

Thanks Jim, very interesting and I enjoy reading your posts. Look forward to more in the future

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, I was agreeing with you, maybe I could have worded it better. Given that Sol is the biggest source of energy in the Solar System, and Earth isn't very far away 1AU I thought Solar Wind is a very interesting addition to the equation. Not to mention my love of everything Space related.

No problem Terrel. I knew that. I was just pointing some things out...blowing steam. In my opinion all of the variables are coming together and we are seeing Rita getting her act together even more now. She should continue strengthening into this evening and it would not surprise me at all if she's up to 100 mph by 11pm tonight.

I'd be shocked if this does not occur by tomorrow morning. The variables that I am referring to were around for all of the majors....Some hurricanes had pressures way lower than my original outlook of 945 mb and much stronger winds.

My forecast was a conservative estimate because I did not think that the MJO was as favorable as it had been during the prior occasions. We had been in phase 5 before yesterday.....Left column shows phase relationships and if you click on latest 40 day diagram you can see where it has been.

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/

You can also get the daily RMM hard numbers if you click on MJO Website

I know people question this relationship. My answer would be that we are basically talking about the chicken and the egg here . Which came first? Warm gulf waters do not matter if you have no system. No system will form unless certain parameters are in place. Of course warm waters help but so do the right space weather variables.

The atmospheric conditons that meteorologists montior for development are coming together because of space weather influences. The upcoming steering current change that is to bring Rita to the north is going to coincide with a sector boundary change. So we are going to see a directional change in the magnetic field component around the time that the high weakens...trough dips.


Many people have written about the possible effect that the a sector boundary change can have upon the atmosphere. If you look at the ACE2 MAG data you can see the solar wind directional / longtitude component all the way to the right. It has been centered the past few days around 135 degrees ...positive....It will be changing to 315 degrees...negative ... in the upcoming days . Rita will follow it's beat.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... mag_1h.txt


Jim