Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[gatorcane]

Can I have a "B" for $5000 please? Nah, I'll just solve the puzzle: WOBBLE!

[CronkPSU]

Noticed last few frames on sat loop looks like Rita has taken a dramatic turn to the west, even south of west. Could be some good news for the Keys. The current path is way off the NHC projected path, will be an interesting 5pm disscusion. The ridge rules, lets just hope it holds all the way west and drives Rita into Mexico... sorry Mexico.

Tsk, tsk, tsk. What is a change in track over a few frames called? It starts with a "W"....

hmmmm.......


-removed-?
westward?
wonderful?
windy?
wobble????

[gatorcane]

hmmmm.......


-removed-?
westward?
wonderful?
windy?
wobble????

lol.

[mvtrucking]

No, Mayfield said if the High would persist where it is right now, then Rita would continue west into Mexico. Since the high is retreating westward, a trough will dig down and pull Rita northward at some point....but he did not say where.

That could be bad for somewhere on the coast. I was kind of hoping for, Mexico bound....

[soonertwister]

I honestly can't see any potential evidence of any turn to the left based on any of the sat loops. No evidence whatsoever of any eye in this possible category 1 storm, either.

In a short while we will have a recon fix, and then you can look at the 6-hour motion, which is still too short a period to determine if a direction change has occurred or not.

[gilbert88]

Models have Rita moving WNW now, not the W that it appears to me. Its not much, but 12 hours west throw everything off in the long run. Noticed last few frames on sat loop looks like Rita has taken a dramatic turn to the west, even south of west. Could be some good news for the Keys. The current path is way off the NHC projected path, will be an interesting 5pm disscusion. The ridge rules, lets just hope it holds all the way west and drives Rita into Mexico... sorry Mexico.

There are many ways to describe this type of malicious -removed-... I'll just leave it at "rude".

[dwg71]

I honestly can't see any potential evidence of any turn to the left based on any of the sat loops. No evidence whatsoever of any eye in this possible category 1 storm, either.

In a short while we will have a recon fix, and then you can look at the 6-hour motion, which is still too short a period to determine if a direction change has occurred or not.

I'm just calling what I see, from 11:00AM to 1PM Rita changed 1 latitude north and 7 west. thats not WNW thats just north of w for three hours. Your right though, lets look at 4PM fix or any vortexs and lets see where she's headed.

No denying that on this loop, the storm has been squashed from the NW.


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[truballer#1]

steve g thoughts on rapidly intensifing rita
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

[Canelaw99]

What makes you think it's being squashed on the NW? (Not asking to be rude, just asking to learn because I see a good outflow on the northern/northwestern side & don't see evidence of squishing or squashing )

[artist]

thanks for posting truballer-

Ship and surface reports indicate the wind field around the storm is increasing, especially in the northern semi-circle, and
this increases the chances of sustained gale force winds affecting southern Florida from near West Palm Beach southward,
with gusts to hurricane force likely from Ft. Lauderdale south across Dade county. Sustained hurricane force winds are
expected across the Keys with the peak storm conditions in SE Florida in about 24 hours, and across the Keys in the
24-36 hour time frame.

[deltadog03]

it did jog WSW..but, look at the warm spot in the IR.....its resuming a west or just north of west movement

[mtm4319]

What makes you think it's being squashed on the NW? (Not asking to be rude, just asking to learn because I see a good outflow on the northern/northwestern side & don't see evidence of squishing or squashing )

I can see it a bit here.

[FlSteel]

all I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Went to bed this morning after a midshift and it look like it was getting it's act collected, wake up 5 hrs later and it looks better than Philipee.

I don't see this "squashing" that has been mentioned. At least not like we saw with Katrina as it turned west into Fl after bumping into the high. What I do see is a storm that is definitly getting organized and trying to take on a much more symetrical shape. Slowly Rita has managed to wrap strong convection around her inner core and now it looks like she may be off to the races.

My prayers and thoughts go out to all those in the FL Keys, Cuba, and south Florida who will have a rough couple of days coming up.

[dwg71]

I honestly can't see any potential evidence of any turn to the left based on any of the sat loops. No evidence whatsoever of any eye in this possible category 1 storm, either.

In a short while we will have a recon fix, and then you can look at the 6-hour motion, which is still too short a period to determine if a direction change has occurred or not.

5 hour coordinate change 23.0N and 75.2W at 10:00AM 23.1 and 76.1W at latest vortex. That's just about as west as you can get without being due west.

[JPmia]

so it is moving generally wnw with a wobble here or there. Sounds normal to me.

[x-y-no]

The latest vortex message is 3 minutes north of the one from two hours ago.

The system is moving essentially due west for the last five hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

Rita is looking less organized than earlier on both infra-red and visible imagery, although Rita is trying to still organize.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

It appears that stronger shear from the north and weaker shear from the south is affecting Rita (which might explain the one millibar jump up). Although Rita still has very good convection and outflow and a good shape, she is starting to look raggedy. Also, conditions are expected to become less favorable over the Bahamas and Florida and eventually into several areas of the Gulf of Mexico, based on this Intensification Potential Chart in the bottom of the following link.
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

It looks like Rita may be somewhat limited in intensification.

Anyone else notice this?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Rita is looking less organized than earlier on both infra-red and visible imagery, although Rita is trying to still organize.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

It appears that stronger shear from the north and weaker shear from the south is affecting Rita (which might explain the one millibar jump up). Although Rita still has very good convection and outflow and a good shape, she is starting to look raggedy. Also, conditions are expected to become less favorable over the Bahamas and Florida and eventually into several areas of the Gulf of Mexico, based on this Intensification Potential Chart in the bottom of the following link.
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

It looks like Rita may be somewhat limited in intensification.

Anyone else notice this?

No...Rita is strengthing and doing it rapidly..

[artist]

seems before intensification this always happens as well doesn't it? not saying it is, but is that not true?

[corpusbreeze]

I honestly can't see any potential evidence of any turn to the left based on any of the sat loops. No evidence whatsoever of any eye in this possible category 1 storm, either.

In a short while we will have a recon fix, and then you can look at the 6-hour motion, which is still too short a period to determine if a direction change has occurred or not.

5 hour coordinate change 23.0N and 75.2W at 10:00AM 23.1 and 76.1W at latest vortex. That's just about as west as you can get without being due west.

Oh that according to Windy is just a word that starts with a W.