If it does NOT hit Galveston...

[Houstonia]

I'm worried about New Orleans and already damaged areas of Lousiana. Personally, I don't think Houston will be hit. I just don't "feel it in my bones", so to speak. I worry about already saturated areas in La., and people coming back to their homes, and refusing to leave (once again). I worry about Houma...

These days, I'm generally... worrying...

As a point of reference, I quote Jeff Masters from Wunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Where will Rita hit?
Take your pick of today's models runs:

GFDL: Central Louisiana (Houma)
GFS: Western Louisiana (Lake Charles)
UKMET: Eastern Texas (Galveston)
NOGAPS: South Texas (Corpus Christi)

Each set of model runs has moved the track of Rita progressively further east. The official NHC forecast has been following along, but staying further back. What we've seen so far this hurricane season is that when the models start trending this way, that's where the storm eventually winds up going. So my best guess is that Rita will hit Louisiana Friday as a Category 3 hurricane. What's the average error for a 5-day forecast? 270 miles. So, everyone from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican border is still at risk.

[skysummit]

Didn't the GFDL shift back to Texas though? I'm in Houma, and I'm not really worried right now.

[jasons2k]

Didn't the GFDL shift back to Texas though? I'm in Houma, and I'm not really worried right now.

Yes it most certainly did. Not expecting the 5PM track to change much at all.

[SamSagnella]

From a forecasting POV, every tropical cyclone is a learning experience - especially one in the Gulf. The models flip and the models flop, eventually coming to a concrete and unwavering consensus around 48hrs out. With Katrina the models shifter further and further east (eventually to near the FL big bend) before moving back to the west. Until Rita enters the Gulf (at the earliest), we can't really jump to any conclusions as to how fast the high will break down and retrograde back to the west.

We all have been using Katrina as an example of why we should begin evacuations earlier, but we also need to use Katrina as an example of how inaccurate the forecast models are 72+ hours out. IMO, Corpus Christi to Mobile should be watching Rita like a hawk.

[beachbum_al]

This storm could go anywhere when it gets in the GOM. It is watch and see and be prepare if the unfortunate happens. I really hate to see any of the areas on the Gulf Coast~TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL be hit by this storm.