Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Jevo]

I am seeing way to many secondary landfall predictions.. I know this is somewhat exciting, but there is going to be a signifigant event in the keys, which has not seen an event like this since Georges.... We have about 4-5 days to watch this for a secondary landfall

There is one school of thought though..... In some parts of the US the maps look like this

[Ivanhater]

Dido on that. If you look at the satlitte imagery, you can see the center of circulation just north of the convection. It also looks as if it is taking a just north of west track.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET.
THE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...
BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND
INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR.
THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DATA FROM THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62
KT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.

RITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT
OR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF
GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE
RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA
BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED
THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

EVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
AND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE
SURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105
KT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER
THE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.7N 78.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.2N 80.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.6N 83.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 24.9N 85.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 93.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 96.0W 70 KT...INLAND

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

looks like wnw

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

my movement guess was correct. it is moving wnw.

[rockyman]

"There's always a first time"

[Nimbus]

The convection is wrapping around a point near 23.3 on my Java grid but I would be prone to believe the accuracy of the GPS in the recon plane 2 hours ago at 23 degrees 06 minutes.

[dwg71]

HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE
IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
MIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE
RITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
FORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA
BORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED
THAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

It seems like the NHC is making a compromise. I would trust the NOGAPS over the GFS. I think its an either or situation. It either Ridge moves out east or it does not. If it moves out east than LA is a probability, if it remains intact then Southern TX is a possibility.

The 72 Hour window is when to be concerned.

Where did they have Katrina 5 days out.

[deltadog03]

calm down DWG....its cool...we are all a little nervous...I would trust the Euro over any of them...the nogaps has continued to shift north every run.....

also, the Gfdl is pretty darn good most of the time

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the center is moving wnw and is beginning to fire thunderstorms on the northern side.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[southerngale]

calm down DWG....its cool...we are all a little nervous...I would trust the Euro over any of them...the nogaps has continued to shift north every run.....

also, the Gfdl is pretty darn good most of the time

I don't know, but I hope they're all wrong. A U-turn back to Africa would be nice. Look at that climo map posted above. This just doesn't happen!

[InimanaChoogamaga]

It looks more and more like a large major hurricane into Texas. Where exactly in Texas is still the question.

[dwg71]

Can someone help me understand why the last two vortex messages, 1 prior to advisory and 1 after, both show the storm at 23.1N. Not 23.3N.

The last vortex message had center at 23.1N and 76.4W at 994MB. That point is .1N and 1.2W of 11:00AM points, or 275*.

I dont get it..

[txwatcher91]

Can someone help me understand why the last two vortex messages, 1 prior to advisory and 1 after, both show the storm at 23.1N. Not 23.3N.

The last vortex message had center at 23.1N and 76.4W at 994MB. That point is .1N and 1.2W of 11:00AM points, or 275*.

I dont get it..

The NHC is just tired from all of the Pacific storms and now the two Atlantic storms. Maybe they are just moving the center farther north so people will evacuate. Maybe they read the vortex messages If someone could explain it I would greatly appreciate it also.

[jpigott]

looks like there is some significant convection firing just north of the center

[skysummit]

Well doesn't this have Galveston to Beaumont written all over it.

[THead]

looks like there is some significant convection firing just north of the center

Yeah, I think you can really see the center of circ now, approaching the southern tip of Grand Bahama Island. Looks a tad north of west as NHC predicted...watching........

[Rainband]

Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

[skysummit]

Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

That's what I say...Lake Charles, La.

[Rainband]

Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

That's what I say...Lake Charles, La.

Seems like that is the last thing I would be saying if I were you.