Joe B.: cat 4 to galveston

jwayne · #1 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:57 pm

the guy is nuts sometimes, but I think he's got it nailed on this one.

KatDaddy · #2 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:00 pm

jwayne can you us more details on Joe B. Since I live 30 miles NW of Galveston I need all the info I can get.

truballer#1 · #3 Postby **truballer#1** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:00 pm

he was mostly right on katrina.

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:01 pm

Certainly plausible... NHC keeps slowly raising the intensity on their forecasts... now 120 mph... just west of Galveston Saturday AM.

canegrl04 · #5 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:03 pm

Makes since.Especially since there hasn't been any upwelling in that part of the GOM. Shes got fresh bath water to grow in :eek:

#6 Postby **loon** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:03 pm

just west...dang...hehehe, I guess my house on moses lake will be gone...=/

cheers
loon

jwayne · #7 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:09 pm

seems pretty confident in the forecast (I know, he always sounds like a "know it all"). Looks to be a Friday evening, early sat morning hit. 935 on the pressure.

tw861 · #8 Postby **tw861** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:13 pm

KatDaddy wrote:jwayne can you us more details on Joe B. Since I live 30 miles NW of Galveston I need all the info I can get.

12z Friday 28.5/95.0 935mb 115kts

Kat, I don't know if you noticed the other post but I think your luck has run out. That protecting cold front that you keep talking about...the AUS/SAT afd this afternoon says that they are looking for one the middle of next week. Sadly for us on the upper Texas coast, it's about a week too late. I guess this blows all of the "it's September the hurricane season in Texas is over" theories.

jwayne · #9 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:14 pm

I'll tell you this, with both the tpc and joe b within about 25 miles of each other on their strike points, I'd be pretty darn nervous on the upper texas coast.

Johnny · #10 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:16 pm

That's just freakin' great. I know this isn't written in stone but this doesn't look good at all.

jwayne · #11 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:21 pm

and don't everybody make the mistake mississippi made by comparing alicia to this (ie i didn't get water with alicia, so I'll be ok). alicia was obviously no camille, but this thing is supposed to be big in terms of the wind field and will be able to drive a lot of water in terms of surge. this is not something to screw around with.

InimanaChoogamaga · #12 Postby **InimanaChoogamaga** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:23 pm

Cat 4 anywhere up the Galveston area or TX/LA border is bad news. Not just because of lives and property but also because of the masses of oil rigs.

KatDaddy · #13 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:23 pm

Very scary indeed. We are in for crazy time. Lots of work from here on out.

jaxfladude · #14 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:39 pm

jwayne wrote:the guy is nuts sometimes, but I think he's got it nailed on this one.

He was bound to get it right some year... :eek:

jwayne · #15 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm

he did nail katrina down to almost the mile about 3 days out. that's pretty strong.

jwayne · #16 Postby **jwayne** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:36 pm

joe b. is on his game: said in his 4:00pm post on pro site that rapid deepening was about to commence. Based on sats, look like he's nailed that too.

soonertwister · #17 Postby **soonertwister** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:02 pm

Joe B sensationalizes storms for ratings, because they mean advertising dollars. If he matches or beats the predictions of the NHC on two really dramatic storm, his prestige jumps, and after all, Accuweather wants to have the NHC dismantled and privatized.

No big shock there. But when Joe B was telling me that the faster surface winds over the Florida Straits was sucking Katrina to the south, that was just further confirmation that Bastardi remains a giant windbag, although far less threatening than a actual hurricane.

jrod · #18 Postby **jrod** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:07 pm

jwayne wrote:joe b. is on his game: said in his 4:00pm post on pro site that rapid deepening was about to commence. Based on sats, look like he's nailed that too.

I wouldn't call it rapid deeping. As Ortt said a storm that is slowly becoming better organized. I dont think it is a hurricane yet, and the 70 mph was a bullish estimate at 8pm.

I do like Joe B's perspective but he it really seems like he puts the most populated areas in the bullseye for every storm. If he's right he be golden on this one.

I dont think anyone can argue that Rita will be a monster after she gets into the gulf.

NorthGaWeather · #19 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:11 pm

jrod wrote:
jwayne wrote:joe b. is on his game: said in his 4:00pm post on pro site that rapid deepening was about to commence. Based on sats, look like he's nailed that too.

I wouldn't call it rapid deeping. As Ortt said a storm that is slowly becoming better organized. I dont think it is a hurricane yet, and the 70 mph was a bullish estimate at 8pm.

70 mph bullish. Ok. :wink:

soonertwister · #20 Postby **soonertwister** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:23 pm

The NHC tropical weather glossary defines rapid and explosive deepening, and although their definitiions contain some maddening inconsistencies, everyone should read and memorize the general rules for those characterizations.

I hear people use the word "bombing" when there is a build-up of convection around the center of a storm. While it may look impressive, it doesn't necessarily translate into rapid or explosive intensification.

It's all in the pressure readings and how much they drop over what period of time. That's the test, not visual observations, or observations of artificially colored animations of images taken at wavelengths other than those of visible light.

Joe B.: cat 4 to galveston

Joe B.: cat 4 to galveston

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