Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

Website · #601 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:30 pm

THead wrote:
jpigott wrote:looks like there is some significant convection firing just north of the center

Yeah, I think you can really see the center of circ now, approaching the southern tip of Grand Bahama Island. Looks a tad north of west as NHC predicted...watching........

That would be Andros Island... :wink:

Grand Bahama is up with Palm Beach County.

hicksta · #602 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:30 pm

Rainband wrote:Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

Eh doubt it

#603 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:31 pm

Rainband wrote:Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

Where is it showing the short term landfall, if any?

Website · #604 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:32 pm

skysummit wrote:Well doesn't this have Galveston to Beaumont written all over it.

Yes it does... and that means another week of DRY weather here. No rain for 20 days and counting... I can hear the grass and flowers dying...

#605 Postby **THead** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:32 pm

Brent wrote:
THead wrote:
jpigott wrote:looks like there is some significant convection firing just north of the center

Yeah, I think you can really see the center of circ now, approaching the southern tip of Grand Bahama Island. Looks a tad north of west as NHC predicted...watching........

That would be Andros Island... Grand Bahama is up with Palm Beach County.

Doh, that would make slight difference wouldn't it........ :wink:

hicksta · #606 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:32 pm

Id stick to trusting GFDL UKMET GFS. When thoes converge along with other ones. Its a good chance itl eb there.
Especially when you got Joe B and NHC 25miles of each other

#607 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:34 pm

hicksta wrote:
Rainband wrote:Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

Eh doubt it

lol great analysis in youre rebuttal hicksta

#608 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:35 pm

Rainband wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Rainband wrote:Titan, a model abc news channel 11 uses..that mind you ,has pretty much nailed all the storms this year.. continues to shift east and now has landfall at lake charles. Dennis phillips said this is still early in the game and he said if a trend develops this may be a LA storm

That's what I say...Lake Charles, La.
Seems like that is the last thing I would be saying if I were you.

Why's that? I think the High will continue to retreat to the west and allow a trough to dig down and catch it prior to Texas. To me, it looks like a last minute recurve just east of the Texas line.

hicksta · #609 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:36 pm

One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

And 4, if it retreated west it wouldnt get to Texas without having to turn. The high it predicted to retreat east. allowing a turn at the end to Texas

Rainband · #610 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:36 pm

Unfortunately, I think anything is possible and if you look at all the storms that have hit this time of year, within 300 miles from where rita formed, None have hit Texas. There is a graphic in another thread. I guess Time will tell. I don't want anyone to get a Major, especially the states ravaged by Katrina.

Rainband · #611 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:37 pm

hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

And 4, if it retreated west it wouldnt get to Texas without having to turn. The high it predicted to retreat east. allowing a turn at the end to Texas

Same could be said for you :wink:

#612 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:37 pm

hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

1. Believe me, it has nothing to do where I live. A landfall just east of the Texas line is WELL west of me.

2. You think I care where J.B. has it going?

3. The models will continue to shift for the next 6 days.

hicksta · #613 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:38 pm

Exactly, but i am not defying the models. Nor the NHC nor Joe B

Stratosphere747 · #614 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:38 pm

hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

Hicsta...No offense but you have *not only with this storm* but others, only look at reasons on why it may hit Galsveston/Houston..

We are still 5 days away and not only will the models continue to change, but possibly the forecast track as well..

And this is coming from a fellow Texan.

Scott

mahmoo · #615 Postby **mahmoo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:39 pm

Where is Kemah, Texas hicksta?

hicksta · #616 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:39 pm

skysummit wrote:
hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

1. Believe me, it has nothing to do where I live. A landfall just east of the Texas line is WELL west of me.

2. You think I care where J.B. has it going?

3. The models will continue to shift for the next 6 days.

Sorry to burst your bubble. But i do recall Joe saying Fl watch out for some activity this week. BOOM there she is. He has done very well with storms this year.

hicksta · #617 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:39 pm

mahmoo wrote:Where is Kemah, Texas hicksta?

Galveston Bay

#618 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:40 pm

mahmoo wrote:Where is Kemah, Texas hicksta?

Right smack in the middle of Galveston and Houston :lol:

jkt21787 · #619 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:40 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
hicksta wrote:One because not many models agree with you, two the NHC AND joe b have it around galveston three you live where?

Hicsta...No offense but you have *not only with this storm* but others, only look at reasons on why it may hit Galsveston/Houston..

We are still 5 days away and not only will the models continue to change, but possibly the forecast track as well..

And this is coming from a fellow Texan.

Scott

Very true. Yet, this one looks like it could be a true problem for his area. I would hope he is not hoping or wishing for this.

BUT, as all others have said, we have seen a decent shift in the last few runs, so why not again?

Rainband · #620 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 5:41 pm

This is my point

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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