Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#641 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:14 pm

Here are the Cuban radars.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... B1=RADARES

#642 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:14 pm

the chances are not small, its not even in the gulf and error is very high

jkt21787 · #643 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:17 pm

ivanhater wrote:the chances are not small, its not even in the gulf and error is very high

Yes they are. If you look at the pattern, any person with experience will tell you that the chances are small given the pattern in place. Again, this is where you have to disregard climo some. It can be very helpful, but its far from foolproof, and this time I think that will hold true.

Don Sutherland, who does an EXCELLENT job of forecasting using climo as well as the overall pattern in place, is even saying this does not follow it, as he is forecasting a TX storm

Rainband · #644 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:18 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Rainband wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
hicksta wrote:Your map of showing the Hits for this month. There are NO cold fronts to sweep it up

I have to agree. There is no current projection of a MAJOR AND MEGA cold front/trough moving in and sweeping south enough to recurve this east of AL/MS. Just don't see it.

You can't just look at climo and say thats where its going. You have to interpret what the atmospheric conditions are and how the pattern will set up to steer this storm. If you do that, you see the chances of working with climo and moving east of AL/MS border is very, very small.

We are not in a climo pattern. Normally by now I've seen many cold fronts sweep through here. Yet today its 96 degrees here in Memphis, an indication of the strong ridge, which is not the climo norm.
I guess my point is ,we are six days out and things change fast when it comes to weather. I am trying to explain that everyone needs to watch, I guess so others don't let their guard down. TRUST me the last thing I want is any area in the US to get another major storm.

I understand your concern and I certainly hope you and all others along the coast do continue to watch it. Things do change fast, and although it seems very small now, the chance is not zero.

As far as I'm concerned, even if the chance is very small, if its not zero, then at least keep one eye on it.

I agree

and BTW I am happy your stayed at S2K

dwg71 · #645 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:18 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:the chances are not small, its not even in the gulf and error is very high

Yes they are. If you look at the pattern, any person with experience will tell you that the chances are small given the pattern in place. Again, this is where you have to disregard climo some. It can be very helpful, but its far from foolproof, and this time I think that will hold true.

Don Sutherland, who does an EXCELLENT job of forecasting using climo as well as the overall pattern in place, is even saying this does not follow it, as he is forecasting a TX storm

A southern TX storm, correct??

jkt21787 · #646 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:20 pm

dwg71 wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:the chances are not small, its not even in the gulf and error is very high

Yes they are. If you look at the pattern, any person with experience will tell you that the chances are small given the pattern in place. Again, this is where you have to disregard climo some. It can be very helpful, but its far from foolproof, and this time I think that will hold true.

Don Sutherland, who does an EXCELLENT job of forecasting using climo as well as the overall pattern in place, is even saying this does not follow it, as he is forecasting a TX storm

A southern TX storm, correct??

He is saying either nothern Mexico or Southern TX at this point. I would agree though I am definitely leaning towards a TX storm now.

MiamiensisWx · #647 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:21 pm

I think one thing we all agree on is that two states at least have a large possibility of being threatened by Rita: Texas and Louisiana. However, things can change.

#648 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:23 pm

I agree with that. Why can't she just go right up the state line just to make everyone happy!

dwg71 · #649 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:24 pm

Latest vortex: 22.9N and 76.9W. Thats .1S and 1.4W since 11AM.

That is definately not WNW. its 265* over 8 hours.

#650 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:25 pm

im sorry but the chances are not small, and you can just read the nhc disco to see, very uncertain is the term they used and chances were small for katrina to hit new orleans too when it was going for the eastern florida panhandle :wink:

vaffie · #651 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:27 pm

dwg71 wrote:Latest vortex: 22.9N and 76.9W. Thats .1S and 1.4W since 11AM.

That is definately not WNW. its 265* over 8 hours.

The center might have reformed to the south due to all the convection that's been down there.

dwg71 · #652 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:29 pm

vaffie wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Latest vortex: 22.9N and 76.9W. Thats .1S and 1.4W since 11AM.

That is definately not WNW. its 265* over 8 hours.

The center might have reformed to the south due to all the convection that's been down there.

I'd believe that if recon had found the center around 23N all day. The ridge is in place and I expect a southern trend in models and forecasts, imo.

jkt21787 · #653 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:34 pm

ivanhater wrote:im sorry but the chances are not small, and you can just read the nhc disco to see, very uncertain is the term they used and chances were small for katrina to hit new orleans too when it was going for the eastern florida panhandle

Just for the record, I always strongly believed that Katrina would not hit the FL Panhandle. Again, the ridge was way too strong, it wasn't going to erode that fast, and it didn't which is why it hit where it it.

I personally had always believed around the MS/AL border would be its hit area. I never posted it here because I knew people would jump all on me. Thats why I was always first to discredit Bob Breck's statements he made early on which have proved to have been idiotic. I never thought it would be far enough west for NOLA to see what it saw though.

Back on subject, it is a very uncertain situation. However, I ask you to look closely at the pattern, notice the ridge and everything else in place over the United States and Gulf (its not just the ridge that factors in mind you), look at the model data and how they are depicting the current pattern to evolve, and tell me that the chance of this recurving into FL or AL is higher or even the same than a hit on TX or LA. I would be shocked if you said yes.

The chance is smaller, much smaller. Not zero, but you have to weigh these issues and the weigh lies heavily further west.

If this hits AL or FL, I will gladly eat my crow. It would be the biggest model shift though I have ever seen, yes, even bigger than Katrina's. It would have to be an unprecenented pattern shift being depicted on the models, especially for not having seen it earlier.

caneseddy · #654 Postby **caneseddy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:37 pm

now its at 23.1 North so it took a dip to tje south but the NHC says it is a wobble only and that the average motion is WNW and the motion is expected to resume WNW

According to Norcross on CBS 4 who was reading the 8pm advisory

vaffie · #655 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:39 pm

dwg71 wrote:
vaffie wrote:
dwg71 wrote:Latest vortex: 22.9N and 76.9W. Thats .1S and 1.4W since 11AM.

That is definately not WNW. its 265* over 8 hours.

The center might have reformed to the south due to all the convection that's been down there.

I'd believe that if recon had found the center around 23N all day. The ridge is in place and I expect a southern trend in models and forecasts, imo.

Regardless, dwg71, the center is now directly under what is growing to be the coldest-topped convection we've seen so far...

MiamiensisWx · #656 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:40 pm

*IMPORTANT NOTICE - 8PM ADVISORY SOON*

The 8PM advisory will be posted shortly in about 15 minutes.

MiamiensisWx · #657 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:44 pm

Here is the 8PM NHC advisory.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 192334
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA WOBBLES A LITTLE WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT...

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE....AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

milankovitch · #658 Postby **milankovitch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:47 pm

Nice little increase of convection Rita's got going; almost increasing as fast as the number of Rita topics on this board.

rockyman · #659 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:48 pm

GFDL shifts even further west (pink line)--now coming in well SW of Houston. Hit refresh if the GFDL time doesn't show 2328Z.

hicksta · #660 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:52 pm

Near matagorda

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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