Local Baton Rouge Met Said...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That the high centered over LA/TX will move east due to a trough dropping in from the northwest US. Therefore that will allow Rita to turn NW. Sounds reasonable, but I have not heard anyone talk about that solution. All the posts I have read says the high is moving westward and its western edge will erode due to a trough. Nothing about it moving eastward. He said the only thing to determine if she hits LA or not will be how fast the high moves to the east. Nothing about weakening. Any thoughts?

[hicksta]

Same thing everyone else is saying.

[Ixolib]

Our local met (Reader - WLOX) just said the approaching front may leave a weakness in the ridge in its wake, offering the possibility for a more northerly trend. He also said A LOT can change over the next few days... As with every other storm, it continues to be a wait-and-see kinda thing.

[TampaFl]

See this post

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... b843edd808

[jkt21787]

That the high centered over LA/TX will move east due to a trough dropping in from the northwest US. Therefore that will allow Rita to turn NW. Sounds reasonable, but I have not heard anyone talk about that solution. All the posts I have read says the high is moving westward and its western edge will erode due to a trough. Nothing about it moving eastward. He said the only thing to determine if she hits LA or not will be how fast the high moves to the east. Nothing about weakening. Any thoughts?

In general, this has been what we are discussing. The high will erode and will in turn shift some eastward slightly. But, most of the models are currently accounting for this.

I still am concerned though about how much further east we'll go. As expressed in another thread, I'm very confident its not further east than the MS/AL border, but LA better be keeping a close eye on this. Hopefully this trend ends soon.

The last thing I want to see is this storm, even its fringe affects, move into the Katrina ravaged areas. Unfortunately, I have concern it could happen, though the TX scneario seems much more likely at this point.

Everyone continue to watch this, but strongly urge TX and LA residents to pay the most attention, and quite honestly, you better start getting prepared now. We've seen Katrina and its after affects. That should motivate everyony.

[PTrackerLA]

If Rita strikes east of the TX/LA border the surge from Lake Ponchitrain could be enough to break the levees again. I still feel very under the gun in Lousiana, but if at this time tomorrow the models are still showing south of Houston I'll start feeling much better. Just remember what the models showed before Katrina crossed Florida...

[alousteau]

As big as the storm is getting a hit on NE TX will probably give us some pretty good rain in BR. That does put us on the dirty (east) side of the storm. Another question is what is she going to do once inland, N, NE, NNE. We could get if from her passing by us twice. Not to mention either way she is still going to push some water up around NO, how much I don't know but tides on the coast and the lake should be higher than normal.

If I have leanred anything from Katrina it is this. Get gas now if you need it. Don't wait until everyone freaks out in a day or two. I filled up my truck , my wife's car, all our gas cans, and our generator a week before Katrina. We didn't have a gas problem at all, we needed gas when stations were thinning out again!!! We didn't use all that gas, but it was nice dumping 5 gallon cans into my truck in the weeks after that were filled up at the pre Katrina prices!!!

[HoumaLa]

We kept all the extra gas we bought for katrina in case there was another storm will fill empty ones tomorrow.

[grphcdsgn6]

You freaked out before everyone else and hoarded the gas from people who needed it, hey I guess it is every man for himself anymore huh buddy? Well i hope you do not need help from a neighbor when you are in need.

[gatorcane]

it's nearing October. Tropical models have a more difficult time predicting the dynamics of the westerlies in this transition period from summer to fall. Often times a trough that shows up only gets picked up at the last minute and the models react to it...so if this trough is indeed forecasted to move down and erode the ridge it may take a little for the models to pick up on it.

[Jagno]

You freaked out before everyone else and hoarded the gas from people who needed it, hey I guess it is every man for himself anymore huh buddy? Well i hope you do not need help from a neighbor when you are in need.

This post was totally out of line. You have the audacity to critisize someone for being prepared yet you also critisize those who failed to be prepared. I'm a neighbor and I'd darn sure help my neighbor who has sense enough to help himself and his family in a heartbeat rather than someone whose laziness and complacency put himself and his family in danger.