Is anyone else concerned for the Keys?

[charley]

This was the 5:30pm local statement issued by the NWS. It sounds like things are going to be pretty bad for the Keys, yet the majority of threads seem to focus on the GOM landfall only. My best friend lives in Key Largo (in a mobile home ~ her husband works for the national park service & they live in park housing), so I'm feeling concern for her. It'd be nice to see some discussion about the Keys, as well as the final landfall for Rita.

TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998...
...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS UPDATED.
ADDED TORNADO IMPACT INFORMATION.
WIND PROBABILITY INFORMATION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
TROPICAL STORM RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 994 MB...OR 29.35 INCHES
OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE GOLDEN
PANTHER ARENA AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY WILL BE USED AS A
STAGING AREA FOR GENERAL POPULATION ONLY...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO
THE CHARLES E. PERRY BUILDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS BEEN FULLY ACTIVATED. ALL
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND SECURE LOOSE
OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER WILL BE OUT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME
PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE OBTAINED.
CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY
OFFICES ARE CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE
COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD
SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND
MARATHON AIRPORT WILL CLOSE AT 600 PM MONDAY. GREYHOUND REPORTS THAT
THE LAST SCHEDULED BUS OUT OF KEY WEST WILL DEPART AT 545 PM TODAY.
CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT
1-800-955-5504.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE
MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE
OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES
ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE
COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT
AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR
ARE AT 230 PM ON TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT ROOF AND MODERATE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES
AND POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE
UPPER KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS. CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN
POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO PIERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30
FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA.

...TORNADO IMPACT...
ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MOST STREETS WILL BE
IMPASSABLE FROM WATER AND DEBRIS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS 90 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 89 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 38 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND
40 PERCENT AT KEY WEST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT...OR SOONER
IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU
MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

$$
SD/CB/AF/MP/AD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ076&warncounty=FLC087&local_place1=Monroe%2FUpper+Keys&product1=Special+Weather+Statement Link for the info posted above.

[jkt21787]

I am. Though the focus is on TX, I am watching the trends now for implications on the Keys. Its not good with a new flare up now.

I am surprised by the lack of threads about the NOW with Rita, not the later. Maybe that will change soon.

[Scorpion]

Yes quite so. I believe this will be 100 kt at Key West. Could be devastating.

[deltadog03]

i am VERY concerned about the keys.....

[dixiebreeze]

I'm sure we're all extremely concerned. Floridians know, however, that preparedness and recovery are top notch in the Sunshine State, which is probably why there is more focus on other areas of the GOM.

[Canelaw99]

I'm, for obvious reasons, very concerned about the effects on the Keys. I have a step-brother that is staying in Islamorada at his home. We aren't that far north of there, and we may very well feel effects from it. Most of all, though, we enjoy going down there so I hope my favorite places aren't affected.

[LAwxrgal]

Is your friend still in that mobile home in the Keys? Tell her to leave. NOW. I'm serious. If she can...

[mahmoo]

Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

[wxmann_91]

With the low elevation of the Keys, a Cat 3 at high tide could definately do some damage.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its kinda weird how this thing hasnt even made a potential landfall in Florida and already all the talk is towards the Gulf. But ofcourse that is where the major impacts are expected so.

<RICKY>

[HurricaneQueen]

Well said, Dixie. Charley, of course, we are all worried especially since there is still much debris left lying around from Katrina.

That said, the people in the Keys have been through this many times, know the drill and how to prepare. Unfortunately, they are also some of the most stubborn when it comes to tropical systems.

Reading the synopsis was chilling (I had read it earlier, as well) so I hope that everyone is prepared for some serious weather.

Lynn

PS I hope you friends are OK.

[jkt21787]

Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

I doubt it. I saw several people being interviewed today that they wouldn't leave unless it was a 4. One person even said that they would have been fine in Katrina, so they're definitely not leaving for this one.

[Brent]

Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

I doubt it. I saw several people being interviewed today that they wouldn't leave unless it was a 4. One person even said that they would have been fine in Katrina, so they're definitely not leaving for this one.

Oh yeah... if Katrina had hit the Keys as a 4 or 5, there would be no Keys right now.

I saw the same comment about someone not leaving unless it was a 4. Aren't they in for a surprise if this bursts like it seems to be doing...

[mahmoo]

Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

I doubt it. I saw several people being interviewed today that they wouldn't leave unless it was a 4. One person even said that they would have been fine in Katrina, so they're definitely not leaving for this one.

That's scary........sometimes unexpected "things" happen that even the "veterans" aren't prepared for!!

[inotherwords]

I'm very worried about Key West. If we lost both NO and Key West the same year it would be a huge loss for our country. These are much beloved cities with such unique character.

[gatorcane]

Key West may see winds up to 130mph+ gusts IMHO. Rita is undergoing rapid strengthening and I believe will continue to do so over the warm FL straits later tonight

[jrod]

The Conchs for the most part are well prepared for hurricanes. I think they will do just fine if Rita does as forecasted. I believe their biggest threat is for Rita to undergo RAPID intensification before she gets there and we all know that is very possible.

[Brent]

Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

I doubt it. I saw several people being interviewed today that they wouldn't leave unless it was a 4. One person even said that they would have been fine in Katrina, so they're definitely not leaving for this one.

That's scary........sometimes unexpected "things" happen that even the "veterans" aren't prepared for!!

I suspect some people said "Only leave if it's a 4" for Charley... and of course, by the time it became a 4, it was far too late to leave.

[mahmoo]

wouldn't 130 mph put the keys underwater

[gatorcane]

so many hurricanes rapidly intensify where Rita is now....how about Camille or the FL Keys storm of 1935 ?