Is anyone else concerned for the Keys?

Website · #21 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:24 pm

mahmoo wrote:wouldn't 130 mph put the keys underwater

No... the surge would. :wink:

jrod · #22 Postby **jrod** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:24 pm

boca_chris wrote:so many hurricanes rapidly intensify where Rita is now....how about Camille or the FL Keys storm of 1935 ?

I was wondering when someone would bring up the '35 storm.

wxmann_91 · #23 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:30 pm

Brent wrote:
mahmoo wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
mahmoo wrote:Does anybody know.......have the majority of people evacuated the Keys? I really hope they have......looks like it's gonna get very, very nasty there.........soon

I doubt it. I saw several people being interviewed today that they wouldn't leave unless it was a 4. One person even said that they would have been fine in Katrina, so they're definitely not leaving for this one.

That's scary........sometimes unexpected "things" happen that even the "veterans" aren't prepared for!!

I suspect some people said "Only leave if it's a 4" for Charley... and of course, by the time it became a 4, it was far too late to leave.

Before Dennis there was the person who said something about Key West being immune because there was a structure or something there that was built, and ever since then there hasn't been a direct hit. And Dennis missed Key West.

I hope that after Katrina some of those people will change their minds and I sincerely hope that they will heed the warnings, as Rita will be no walk in the park (heck even Dennis brought strong surge to Key West).

#24 Postby **baygirl_1** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:36 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Before Dennis there was the person who said something about Key West being immune because there was a structure or something there that was built, and ever since then there hasn't been a direct hit. And Dennis missed Key West.

I hope that after Katrina some of those people will change their minds and I sincerely hope that they will heed the warnings, as Rita will be no walk in the park (heck even Dennis brought strong surge to Key West).

Ironically, Dr. Jeff Master's mentions the Hurricane Grotto you're alluding to here in the last entry of his blog at Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
I am very concerned about the Keys. My sister and her husband have a mobile home down there, but they don't live there. They button her up for hurricane season and stay away! She spent much of today checking in with folks that live on the mobile home park. None are staying in the park and only one is even staying in the Keys. So, she feels a little better, but is still quite worried for her friends. Prayers will definitely be needed for all those folks.
EDIT: Sorry! URL was a mistake. Fixed now!

seannymac · #25 Postby **seannymac** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:43 pm

I am hunkered down in big pine key. We are waiting for this storm to pass. Wish me luck.

SouthernWx · #26 Postby **SouthernWx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:44 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i am VERY concerned about the keys.....

I'm EXTREMELY worried about anyone unwise enough to stay in the Keys and not leave. Rita could easily bomb to 120 mph or more before impacting the Keys.....in fact, given the atmospheric and oceanic parameters in place, I wouldn't be surprised if Rita is a cat-4 hurricane s it passes over/ near the lower Keys (and a cat-5 CANNOT be ruled out :eek:

In 1935, the infamous "Labor Day" hurricane bombed from a 60-70 mph tropical storm near Andros Island to a 190-200 mph cat-5 monster before reaching the middle Keys. While the forward speed of Rita will likely prevent a repeat of 1935.....we could still have a very intense and strengthening monster hurricane plowing across Key West and the lower Keys. When the GFDL proggs central pressures in the 926-930 mb range, it is most disconcerting to me....and I suppose to anyone with a knowledge of what carnage past bombing hurricanes have done in that area.

PW
(in St Augustine Beach Florida this evening)

jkt21787 · #27 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:45 pm

Yikes Perry, I'm not sure I've ever seen you so aggressive on a storm's potential. Lets hope it doesn't happen.

Flakeys · #28 Postby **Flakeys** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:45 pm

I'm sticking it out in Tavernier. Maybe half my neighbors took off. I have a little Cuban Grocery down the street so I can still get my cafe con leche fix in the morning. (Hopefully)

Website · #29 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:46 pm

SouthernWx wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i am VERY concerned about the keys.....

I'm EXTREMELY worried about anyone unwise enough to stay in the Keys and not leave. Rita could easily bomb to 120 mph or more before impacting the Keys.....in fact, given the atmospheric and oceanic parameters in place, I wouldn't be surprised if Rita is a cat-4 hurricane s it passes over/ near the lower Keys (and a cat-5 CANNOT be ruled out

Maybe the GFDL wasn't so insanely crazy afterall...

:shocked!:

ronjon · #30 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:51 pm

seannymac wrote:I am hunkered down in big pine key. We are waiting for this storm to pass. Wish me luck.

You could be making a mistake. I saw what Georges did to Big Pine Key and Rita could potentially be stronger. Once winds reach tropical storm force, they close the 7-mile bridge. Hope u found some higher ground with a stronger built shelter. Good Luck! :eek:

seannymac · #31 Postby **seannymac** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:03 pm

I stayed for Georges in 98. It was not really that bad. I do not live on the water. My house is on stilts. I should be fine.

jpigott · #32 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:11 pm

SouthernWx wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i am VERY concerned about the keys.....

I'm EXTREMELY worried about anyone unwise enough to stay in the Keys and not leave. Rita could easily bomb to 120 mph or more before impacting the Keys.....in fact, given the atmospheric and oceanic parameters in place, I wouldn't be surprised if Rita is a cat-4 hurricane s it passes over/ near the lower Keys (and a cat-5 CANNOT be ruled out

In 1935, the infamous "Labor Day" hurricane bombed from a 60-70 mph tropical storm near Andros Island to a 190-200 mph cat-5 monster before reaching the middle Keys. While the forward speed of Rita will likely prevent a repeat of 1935.....we could still have a very intense and strengthening monster hurricane plowing across Key West and the lower Keys. When the GFDL proggs central pressures in the 926-930 mb range, it is most disconcerting to me....and I suppose to anyone with a knowledge of what carnage past bombing hurricanes have done in that area.

PW
(in St Augustine Beach Florida this evening)

wow - coming from you i am now going to watch this baby closely. I am up here in palm beach county - what is the worst case scenario for us up here. I'm thinking worst case Rita comes in to South Dade and we get 45-55mph with gusts to 65-70

charley · #33 Postby **charley** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:58 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Is your friend still in that mobile home in the Keys? Tell her to leave. NOW. I'm serious. If she can...

Oh heck yeah she's gone! She, her spouse and their kids left early this afternoon. She's not stupid enough to hang around with a hurricane and them living in a mobile home!

She told me that when they were evacuating, there were still people coming IN to the Keys and that while the evacuation took longer than it ever has (lots of people were leaving), she was surprised by how many people were ignoring the mandatory evac order and appeared to be staying. Also, she said that water was already spraying up onto the overseas highway while they were leaving and that has NEVER happened during one of their many evacuations.

#34 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:06 pm

charley wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:Is your friend still in that mobile home in the Keys? Tell her to leave. NOW. I'm serious. If she can...

Oh heck yeah she's gone! She, her spouse and their kids left early this afternoon. She's not stupid enough to hang around with a hurricane and them living in a mobile home!

She told me that when they were evacuating, there were still people coming IN to the Keys and that while the evacuation took longer than it ever has (lots of people were leaving), she was surprised by how many people were ignoring the mandatory evac order and appeared to be staying. Also, she said that water was already spraying up onto the overseas highway while they were leaving and that has NEVER happened during one of their many evacuations.

I'm glad she's gone...and hope everybody else in the Keys has done the same.

#35 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:08 pm

Against my advice, my father is staying in Big Pine. He's a stubborn conch and won't listen.

kempshark · #36 Postby **kempshark** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 12:29 am

Yeah, I have quite a few friends in the Lower Keys. In fact, I just got back from there last week. I know my best friend evacuated and is here in St. Pete. I'm not sure about my other friends down there. Hopefully they got out or make it through okay.

I'm supposed to be going back down at the end of this month, and the end of October, and the end of November, and the end of December.......you get the idea. I hope there isn't too much damage, its obviously my favorite place to go :wink:

olddude · #37 Postby **olddude** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:10 am

So far just a breezy morning on Big Pine. No wonder Seannymac is comfortable staying, you should see the shutters that guy has. Would take a RPG to penetrate 'em. The obligatory "Riders on the Stom" song on the radio, as I write.

wxwatcher2 · #38 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:26 am

So far so good with Rita. Seems content to be a strong tropical storm.

olddude · #39 Postby **olddude** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:50 am

Lost the first tree of the storm. A buttonwood that took a hit in Georges. Most of the wind in Dennis and Katrina came from the south, so far all wind is from the north in this one.

#40 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:51 am

olddude wrote:Lost the first tree of the storm. A buttonwood that took a hit in Georges. Most of the wind in Dennis and Katrina came from the south, so far all wind is from the north in this one.

Thanks for the update!! My father is also in Big Pine on Ave. B.

Is anyone else concerned for the Keys?

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