Will Rita be Upgraded to A Hurricane at 11PM Tonight?

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Will Rita become a Hurricane by 11PM?

Poll ended at Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:32 pm

Yes
61
80%
No
15
20%
 
Total votes: 76
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MiamiensisWx

Will Rita be Upgraded to A Hurricane at 11PM Tonight?

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:32 pm

This will be a short poll, so pump up your muscles! Do you think Rita will be upgraded to a minimal hurricane by the time the 11PM advisory comes out? It now has better convection; however, RECON flight winds are continually being shown to be below hurricane strength and, in fact, possibly below the supposed current strength of 70MPH.

What do you think? Will there be an upgrade to a hurricane tonight by 11PM?
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truballer#1

#2 Postby truballer#1 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:34 pm

Image
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Brent
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#3 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:36 pm

Is recon still out??? Because if not, and the next flight isn't til after the 11pm advisory, then they may do like earlier(at 11am) and upgrade because the storm looks better(in this case, a LOT better).
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:36 pm

The recon data only supports 57 mph at the surface...Hardly 60 mph. So no this will not be a hurricane at 11pm. In if organizion doe's not take place it might not be at 5am.
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fasterdisaster
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#5 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:36 pm

YES!!!!! The convection now exploding and becoming concentrated. Has another 2 and a half hours to intensify before this coming advisory, and I am 90% sure it will be a 'cane.
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jkt21787
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#6 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:38 pm

Unless recon is there before and finds it, then no. Models still initialized at 70 mph.

So, we'll need to see recon first, then upgrade.
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fasterdisaster
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#7 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:41 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Unless recon is there before and finds it, then no. Models still initialized at 70 mph.

So, we'll need to see recon first, then upgrade.


When is the next recon scheduled?
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jkt21787
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#8 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:43 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:Unless recon is there before and finds it, then no. Models still initialized at 70 mph.

So, we'll need to see recon first, then upgrade.


When is the next recon scheduled?

Looks like another one is headed in now actually, according to Cylconeye's posts.

So, we could get a hurricane at 11. However, still I'm not convinced were there yet, though we are certainly on the way. So, I'm undecided I guess on whether it will be at 11 or not.

I'll wait for the recon reports :D
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MiamiensisWx

#9 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:48 pm

*BUMP*
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mtm4319
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#10 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:49 pm

There's no need to bump a thread after 5 minutes of inactivity.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:50 pm

If they don't find stronger then 62 knots this time. To go by the data they will have to down grade her to 60 mph. Thats if the system is not strengthing...
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MiamiensisWx

#12 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:51 pm

mtm4319 wrote:There's no need to bump a thread after 5 minutes of inactivity.


Sorry...
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#13 Postby Lifesgud2 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:00 pm

85KNTS
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#14 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If they don't find stronger then 62 knots this time. To go by the data they will have to down grade her to 60 mph. Thats if the system is not strengthing...


Image

Tell me that is a 60 mph storm...
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mtm4319
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#15 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:03 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:There's no need to bump a thread after 5 minutes of inactivity.


Sorry...


I didn't mean to sound rude. But hopefully you can see what I mean. :)
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#16 Postby jimbo » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:16 pm

Brent wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If they don't find stronger then 62 knots this time. To go by the data they will have to down grade her to 60 mph. Thats if the system is not strengthing...


Image

Tell me that is a 60 mph storm...


Certainly looks a lot better than Phillipe........
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canegrl04
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#17 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:31 pm

I think 80mph by 11pm,and then she is really going to bomb once she crosses into the GOM
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#18 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:34 pm

No way it's not one... if recon doesn't find it, then they need their instruments looked at. :lol:
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#19 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:37 pm

I won't wait for recon now, we obviously have hurricane Rita.
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jhamps10

#20 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:42 pm

Yeah, no need for recon here, rita looks like a cane to me.
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