center reforming at 24.2 north? opinons??

CHRISTY · #1 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:36 pm

center reforming at 24.2 north opinons???

Derek Ortt · #2 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:37 pm

no,

convection is finally starting to wrap around as the SE shear abates

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:41 pm

looks like convection is wrapping around right into Miami-Dade :eek:

TheShrimper · #4 Postby **TheShrimper** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:44 pm

I agree, the center will reform north and traverse Andros. I have noticed that as well. The deep convection southerly will be asorbed into that point aforementioned.

jpigott · #5 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:55 pm

TheShrimper wrote:I agree, the center will reform north and traverse Andros. I have noticed that as well. The deep convection southerly will be asorbed into that point aforementioned.

Shirmper - do you think Rita will traverse Andros to the N or S

#6 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 7:56 pm

The center already looks north of the next forecast point according to radar.

rockyman · #7 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:02 pm

Aren't we above the intensity level for "reformations"? Anyone know how strong a storm/hurricane can be before the worry of reformations ends?

TheShrimper · #8 Postby **TheShrimper** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:10 pm

I feel Rita will cross Andros at it's southernmost point. I do not see it eluding that island completely. In an hours time, Miami long range should have the complete circulation depicted. I am really getting concerned about the Keys. we just got back from there and there is junk piled 6 feet high everywhere from Katrina.

bahamaswx · #9 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:12 pm

The center will not reform. Although it's hard to tell by night, I'd peg the center just south of Andros right now.

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:13 pm

sure looks to be reforming more north....

leonardo · #11 Postby **leonardo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:15 pm

storms this well organized usually don't just reform their centers...

especially when deep convection is EXPLODING over the current one

#12 Postby **THead** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:18 pm

Watching the WV loop, it looks like the center is right on the NW edge of the large ball of convection, and appears to be moving right on track, wnw.

bahamaswx · #13 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:22 pm

THead wrote:Watching the WV loop, it looks like the center is right on the NW edge of the large ball of convection, and appears to be moving right on track, wnw.

WV loop is a very poor choice for locating a low-level center. Of course, as shear recedes and the system becomes better stacked, the LLC will be vertically below any upper-level features, but Rita isn't quite there yet.

Bgator · #14 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:22 pm

Actually if you look at long range u will see the spin SE of Andros right about where they say it is! U can see it! may just be because it long range and that its not good quality, but Andros island is a bit far north!

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:32 pm

Storms that have a 993mb pressure do NOT reform their center. Not happening...never.

Also...never look to find a center using water vapor unless it has a clear eye...because that is the only way you will EVER see it.

Finally...recon 2 1/2 hours ago fixed it south of the track. It will not reform north or near Andros. The center will move south of andros.

NastyCat4 · #16 Postby **NastyCat4** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:33 pm

Time for a new glasses 'script. The storm is slightly South of track, and has been moving more West than WNW. Expect it to be SOUTH of the Keys.

center reforming at 24.2 north? opinons??

center reforming at 24.2 north? opinons??

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