Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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gatorcane
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#701 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:44 pm

The feature is moving nw, but it does not look right. The storm is clearly west. 265-280. If that is the eye and it is indeed moving nw, watch out.


the center may be trying to relocate as the convection is clearing exploding tonight...
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#702 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:44 pm

hmmm...NHC may have to put out a supplimental message since recon is still no where near getting a definitive fix on center and speed yet
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#703 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:45 pm

if that is not the center than I am fooled. It is clearly wobbling NNW unless the radar is not accurate out that far.
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#704 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES ANDROS
ISLAND...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA WEST COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM
GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#705 Postby vaffie » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:48 pm

Look how concentric it's become on satellite! Wow, it's a monster, and I don't think it's going NW at all.
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#706 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:48 pm

vortex says 992

new advisory says 990

take your pick
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#707 Postby StormFury » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:50 pm

I also see a slight NW movement. Another good radar image can be found at intellicast...http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmia&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=JavaLoop&prodnav=none. By the way, speaking of the NW movement, hasn't the latest GFS model shifted north? This IR satellite loop really shows a good WNW movement as opposed to due West...http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalStd.asp?loc=kmia&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=SatelliteLoop&prodnav=none
By the way, here is something surprising...that meteorologist for WSVN, Ferrel or whatever his name, said that a northward shift may occur with fluctuations in the positions of the ULL south of Cuba and if the ridge over Florida moves slightly to the north.

Last, the stronger a storm, the more likely it will exhibit a poleward motion, regardless of high pressure systems. High Pressure Smigh Pressure!

Now is the time we all need to shift attention to the radar, since it is more reliable than satellite imagery when tracking the center of a storm. I remember this especially for Katrina, before it made landfall in extreme northern Dade county. I remember seeing a large blob of convection near Grand Bahama Isle and I thought that Katrina would make landfall near Boca Raton after seeing the IR satellite. However, the radar indicated a WSW jog, which was later confirmed by the huge blob of convection also moving WSW.
Last edited by StormFury on Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#708 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:50 pm

vortex- B. 23 deg 18 min N
077 deg 44 min W

advisory- latitude 23.3 north...longitude 77.8 west
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#709 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z TUE SEP 20 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM
GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 77.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 77.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#710 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:53 pm

yea possible wobble nnw on radar...
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#711 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:55 pm

Wow....she's looking like Katrina did when Katrina hit the gulf....convection just blew up!
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#712 Postby fci » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:55 pm

I love S2K!!!!

Threads contain comments like "It's bombing", "Moving NW"....
all kinds of theories; many making total sense.

And then the advisory comes out and basically says........
NOTHING HAS CHANGED
Same strength ( little closer to Hurricane strength)
Same path (WNW).

You gotta love it!!!

It's what makes S2K fun :coaster:
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#713 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:55 pm

Image
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#714 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:56 pm

Yup...family fun!
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#715 Postby SamSagnella » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:03 pm

Drastic change in satellite presentation over the past hour or so...areal coverage has decreased significantly and is taking on a more consolodated appearance - good news for those in the nrn portions of watch/warning area on FL east coast. I really can't believe that this isn't a hurricane...anyone else thinking the NHC will pull one of their classic 30-minutes-since-the-last-advisory-but-new-advisory-based-on-new-information shenanegans?
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#716 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:04 pm

SamSagnella wrote:anyone else thinking the NHC will pull one of their classic 30-minutes-since-the-last-advisory-but-new-advisory-based-on-new-information shenanegans


*raises hand*

LOL... I remember Dennis... 5pm came, winds actually went DOWN. Everyone was saying "storm cancel". An hour later, we had a hurricane.
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#717 Postby vaffie » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:05 pm

skysummit wrote:Yup...family fun!


Yeah, this is an awesome forum--I love hearing every theory all of you have--it produces ultimately a very balanced view--constant clashes of opinion create that balance. Half the time I don't know what to say to them, but I value the opinion nevertheless. Also, for those of the opinion it will hit Louisiana vs. Texas, the latest model runs based on the TAOS website (http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/map ... query=true)
show 10 runs ending up east of the Texas-Louisiana border, and 26 west of the border. And of the Global Dynamic models, all of them are west. So, of course, as we all know, these things can change in time, but these runs have all been internally consistent over time, with only fifty to hundred mile variations on average between runs, so with each passing hour, the odds are looking strong that Texas will be hit. I wouldn't be crazy to think it worth betting on right now, but give it another day, and it might be. All the best to everyone, and thank you for all of your insights and opinions. -vaffie
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#718 Postby caneseddy » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:06 pm

Local mets are saying that this might be upgraded to a hurricane before midnight and Rappaport also stated that the recon planes are starting to enter the center of the storm and he wouldnt be surprised if they find hurricane force winds
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#719 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:08 pm

TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

RITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STORM PRODUCED A
MASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
EVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING.
HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI
NORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH
33 KT SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
RIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME. THE GFDL AND
GFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE FORECAST
TRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
CALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE TRACK AFTER
72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO
THE MODEL SPREAD.

UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 23.3N 77.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 23.7N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 82.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 84.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 24.8N 87.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 25.5N 91.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 27.5N 94.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.0W 60 KT...INLAND
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#720 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 10:12 pm

Ok, is it just me or does this moving the track to the south not seem right? When I look at the sat pics, I still see her moving towards the Keys, not south of them....I don't know, it might just be my eyeballs tired of looking at it all.....
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