Could Rita reach 175 mph

[DAVE440]

Do you work for FOX? No mention of this thread BEYOND THIS FORUM!

That's how rumors get started...

[arcticfire]

I'm not too sure why people think that just because Katrina got incredibly strong, it means that this cane will as well...The NHC as well as the Tropical update earlier both mentioned the dry air in the gulf being the only thing from allowing it to get too strong.... I'm not too sure why people are discounting this. Yes, it will get strong, and probably stronger than currently forecasted, but Katrina is a rarity getting as strong as she did and as the NHC said several times, conditions had to be absolutely PERFECT, which they were for that to happen...

Yeah, I'm seeing this in the "lowest pressure" poll. Some people might have Katrina in mind and are trying to compare Rita to it, not knowing/remembering that Katrina was a once-in-a-generation hurricane. I'm not saying it can't happen again, but it's really, really unlikely.

I don't consider Katrina a once in a generation storm. Granted I doubt Rita is gonna get to 175 , but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened. There is a great big puddle in the Wgulf of fuel , and by that time the dry air should be out of the way , and if there is no sheer *shrug*. I think expecting it to be 10-20 years before another katrina is just as bad as expecting every storm to be cat5.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, I find this interesting, which is from the latest TWO just posted a few minutes ago. I still think it will be a major cane in spite of what this says, still thinking a mid to strong cat 3


<<<It should be noted that
the GFDL calls for Rita to peak in 24 hours and then slowly weakens
the storm for the rest of the next five days. This is likely due
to the sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content of the
Gulf of Mexico being less than those in the Florida>>>

[wxmann_91]

For reference, look at the latest NHC disco to see why Rita probably won't be as strong as Katrina (or even a Cat 5 for that matter).

EDIT: Never mind, the poster above me already posted it.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, you might want to read this (from the Hurricane FAQ):

With all other factors being equal, being "off" by a mere 0.5°C (1°F) can be the difference between a storm that rapidly intensifies to one that falls apart!

[NastyCat4]

I am normally conservative about storms, but this one has me shaken, like Katrina. I have a bad feeling that this one's gonna get bigger, nastier, and more ferocious than any we've seen so far. Cat 5, and 175 is a definite possibility--this could be one of the strongest storms of all time. What is there to weaken her, during her 400+ mile passage across the Gulf?

[mtm4319]

Less than 1% chance.

Looks like I won't have to fix dinner tonight... I'll probably have a fresh plate of crow ready for me.

[cjrciadt]

The GOM can support it? Yes
Will it happen? Guessing NO
Will it reach Cat4 strength? Without a doubt.

Guessing Yes now.

[ChaserUK]

well she has got this far very easily and very quickly so I say yes - probably tonight (this afternoon and evening for you guys). Whether this type of intensity could be maintained? Not sure on that one but would guess no.

[Scorpion]

Time for some crow guys. I called it .

[MGC]

At this point I'd say yes. And, Rita has an excellent possibility to exceed Katrina winds. Here is why. Rita has a smaller eye than Katrina. Rita currently has a 20 NM wide eye. A smaller eye can support greater winds. Once Rita passes 90 degree west will move over virgin waters, that is water that Katrina didn't upwell. Those 30C waters will support a Cat4-5 all the way to Texas. Only thing that will kill Rita at this point is dry air entrainment.......MGC

[rockst0ne]

Could it reach this level?

Maybe 880 mB/230MPH wind.


- Rockst0ne

[f5]

For reference, look at the latest NHC disco to see why Rita probably won't be as strong as Katrina (or even a Cat 5 for that matter).

EDIT: Never mind, the poster above me already posted it.

say that again

[NCHurricane]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[HouTXmetro]

Yes, she just has!

[canegrl04]

Serve me up some with alittle salt,please

[wxmann_91]

Oh dear who knew?

Guess I will take my crow now.

[EverythingIsEverything]

Look, we are in a very active cycle. NOBODY thought Emily would hit 135 kts in the same stretch of water as Dennis just a week earlier. Rita will be hitting a stretch of untouched GOM water. An anticyclone is forecast to develop over it. NOBODY thought Katrina would hit Cat 5 strength after emerging from FL.

Scorpion,
Tou are right that it's an active time and what not, but don't ya think 175 is a bit of a stretch?? I know you aren't one of them, but sometimes -removed- gets the better of people's predictions.

please help thy unbelief you didn't believe it and Rita Acheived it

[jaxfladude]

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:47 pm Post subject: Could Rita reach 175 mph
she has plenty of warm water ahead of her also plenty of time for a couple of eyewall replacement cycles?

You just had to post this thread

Just a harmless rant release that is all

[deltadog03]

I said yes.....most said no....crow time