Eeney - Meeney - Miney - Moe

[SamSagnella]

Posted this to another thread, but I guess I feel this topic warrants its own:

From a forecasting POV, every tropical cyclone is a learning experience - especially one in the Gulf. The models flip and the models flop, eventually coming to a concrete and unwavering consensus around 48hrs out. With Katrina the models shifter further and further east (eventually to near the FL big bend) before moving back to the west. Until Rita enters the Gulf (at the very earliest), we can't really jump to any conclusions as to how fast the high will break down and retrograde back to the west.

We've been using Katrina as an example of why we should begin evacuations earlier, but we also need to use Katrina as an example of how inaccurate the forecast models are 72+ hours out. False evacuations lead to complacency and raise the potential for future catastrophes (sp?). IMO, Corpus Christi to Mobile should be watching Rita like a hawk.

[inotherwords]

Amen. Not a very popular POV on this forum right now, but I agree with you 100%.

[beachbum_al]

Like I said on that other thread too it is something that we need to watch, be prepare, and don't panic.

[SamSagnella]

I just wanted to clarify something I said earlier, so instead of creating another thread...

I don't mean to sound insensitive to those who are in the Galveston area and are rightfully worried about potential impacts, its just a very fine line that EM officials walk. If it turns out that Rita moves ashore elsewhere, thats great for the HGX area, but once a diverted storm or unnecessary evacuation order becomes engrained into John Q. Public's memory, it takes a lot for him to forget it. Hindsight is, of course, always 20/20.

[aOl]

I just wanted to clarify something I said earlier, so instead of creating another thread...

I don't mean to sound insensitive to those who are in the Galveston area and are rightfully worried about potential impacts, its just a very fine line that EM officials walk. If it turns out that Rita moves ashore elsewhere, thats great for the HGX area, but once a diverted storm or unnecessary evacuation order becomes engrained into John Q. Public's memory, it takes a lot for him to forget it. Hindsight is, of course, always 20/20.

Exactly, and it looks to me Rita tracks will continue to track to the east. The high over the north central GOM just isn't strong enough.