Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[mtm4319]

Generally the same TX landfall location, but at an angle closer to north (i.e., closer to Houston -- a super-zoom in Google Earth shows the forecast path crossing on the SW edge of the I-610 corridor).

[Brent]

Ok, is it just me or does this moving the track to the south not seem right? When I look at the sat pics, I still see her moving towards the Keys, not south of them....I don't know, it might just be my eyeballs tired of looking at it all.....

Track didn't move south... the Tuesday 8pm position is very close to Key West.

[LaBreeze]

If and when that high begins to break down or move is the key to any northward movement. Any one want to guess on that one?

[EDR1222]

The NHC 11 PM discussion talks about some easterly shear and an upper level low that might be inhibiting Rita somewhat from developing a strong inner-core. Hopefully the trend continues.

It would be good news for the Keys at least, but obviously, as we have seen many times this year, things can change rapidly.

Looks like her movement is remaining steady between west and wnw.

[NCHurricane]

Key West HLS

Code: Select all

714
WTUS82 KEYW 200322
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-200630-

TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1125 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998...
...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.
STORM SURGE INFORMATION UPDATED.
WIND INFORMATION UPDATED.
TORNADO INFORMATION UPDATED.
RAINFALL INFORMATION UPDATED.
WIND PROBABILITY INFORMATION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS...WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE
FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST. TROPICAL STORM RITA IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS. THE
SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY IS OPEN FOR GENERAL
POPULATION. THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER IS FULLY
ACTIVATED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD RUSH HURRICANE
PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION. INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND
SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. POWER
WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY A WEEK OR MORE
IN SOME PLACES. AT LEAST THREE DAYS OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE
OBTAINED. CITY AND COUNTY OFFICES...AND CITY AND COUNTY PARKS ARE
CLOSED. ALL HOSPITALS IN THE KEYS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS
ARE CLOSED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE
SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND MARATHON AIRPORT ARE
CLOSED. GREYHOUND BUS LINES IN KEY WEST WILL BE CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. CONTACT THE KEYS SHUTTLE AT 1-800-410-KEYS. THE MONROE
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS AVAILABLE AT
1-800-955-5504.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE
MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE
OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES
ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. THE HIGHEST FORECASTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR
SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON
TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS CAN EXPECT EXTENSIVE ROOF DAMAGE TO
HOMES AND BUSINESSES...INCLUDING PEELING OFF OF ROOF MATERIAL AND
IN SOME CASES...THE ROOF LIFTING OFF. MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE.
MANY WILL BE DAMAGED...HUNDREDS MAY BE DESTROYED. LARGE TREES AND
POWER POLES WILL BE TOPPLED. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER
KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 96 TO 110 MPH ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
JEWFISH CREEK AND SNAKE CREEK BRIDGES ARE LOCKED IN THE DOWN
POSITION. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO PIERS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINAS WILL BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN
UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. BY TUESDAY...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30
FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY
TO ACCUMULATE AND ENTER HOMES...AND MOST STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE
FROM WATER AND DEBRIS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS 93 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 92 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 35 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND
41 PERCENT AT KEY WEST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU
MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

$$

SD/CB/AF/MP/AD

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[NCHurricane]

Tampa Bay HLS

Code: Select all

WTUS82 KTBW 200258
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-200530-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST TO STRIKE THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A
HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO
ENGLEWOOD FOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND LEE
COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONITA BEACH NORTH TO
ENGLEWOOD.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT MYERS.  THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE TAMPA BAY REGION.

...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BECOMING EAST 25 TO 35 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER BANDS THAT ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RITA.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF RITA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.

STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IF PERSISTENT BANDS DEVELOP.  ALL RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO RIVER FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
AS RITA MOVES FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE EAST GULF MAKING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES EXISTS IN RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
RITA IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY STORM SURGE
IMPACTS FROM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OFFSHORE UNTIL RITA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SEAS TO RISE ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS COUPLE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES COULD CAUSE MINOR PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

...NEXT STATEMENT...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN RUSKIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 230 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

CP

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[jopatura]

Generally the same TX landfall location, but at an angle closer to north (i.e., closer to Houston -- a super-zoom in Google Earth shows the forecast path crossing on the SW edge of the I-610 corridor).

Of course it would. Because my house is on the SW edge of the I-610 corridor.

[corpusbreeze]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

[ROCK]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

Middle TX coast can have her....let me tell you something Kat freaked people out here. Bottled water gone, plywood dwindling, my wife is freaking out.....even me with all knowledge I have about these things, I am getting stressed. AND this is 5 days out.

let the cows have her is all I can say....

[Brent]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

I think they consider the landfall point which is near Freeport to be Middle Texas(barely).

[Stratosphere747]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

I think they consider the landfall point which is near Freeport to be Middle Texas(barely).

Technically Sargent is the northern most point of the middle Texas coast...If that makes any sense...

Freeport/Surfside is one of those "in between" waypoints...

Either way...Matagorda and Brazoria are the targets as of now...But being this far out I still feel a bit of a subtle change in the track.

[corpusbreeze]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

Middle TX coast can have her....let me tell you something Kat freaked people out here. Bottled water gone, plywood dwindling, my wife is freaking out.....even me with all knowledge I have about these things, I am getting stressed. AND this is 5 days out.

let the cows have her is all I can say....

I hate to say this but people here in Corpus is buisness as ussual. Yeah we make mention about it but it is pretty muth written off as a Houston landfall. Hey I have to admit the NHC has done a great job these last two years forecasting landfall. Sorry Galveston and Houston but Rita looks like your baby. Let just hope for your sake she weakens.

[jasons2k]

What does the NHC mean in their 11pm discussion when they will compromise between the sputh models and north ones and make landfall on the middle Texas coast? Then you look at the forecast map and shows an upper Texas coast hit.

Middle TX coast can have her....let me tell you something Kat freaked people out here. Bottled water gone, plywood dwindling, my wife is freaking out.....even me with all knowledge I have about these things, I am getting stressed. AND this is 5 days out.

let the cows have her is all I can say....

I hate to say this but people here in Corpus is buisness as ussual. Yeah we make mention about it but it is pretty muth written off as a Houston landfall. Hey I have to admit the NHC has done a great job these last two years forecasting landfall. Sorry Galveston and Houston but Rita looks like your baby. Let just hope for your sake she weakens.

That's what they thought in Punta Gorda last year.......

[CronkPSU]

recon seems to have found hurricane force winds

[tw861]

FWIW, the new 00z GFS is coming out and through 90 hours is much further west. However at 96 hours she appears to be moving northwest. Still waiting on the rest of it to see if that northwest motion continues to landfall or a turn due north occurs as in previous runs.

Well, as I am typing this it is now out to 120 hours and the net result is about the same. Looks like after 96 hours she turns NNW and lanfalls between Matagorda and Freeport Texas. But the trek further west in the GOM delays the landfall about 18 hours or so until Saturday evening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

[Dmetal81]

recon seems to have found hurricane force winds

Saw that post in the recon thread... shes starting to wind up, satellite presentation is looking improved on a frame-by-frame basis. The expansion of convection coverage has been amazing to watch, both on satellite and radar.


Base Velocity really shows that wind starting to increase near the keys:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx.shtml

Wont be long before sustained tropical storm force winds are going to be felt.

[SamSagnella]

I think we'll be in for a nasty surprise after the satellite eclipse.

[vaffie]

FWIW, the new 00z GFS is coming out and through 90 hours is much further west. However at 96 hours she appears to be moving northwest. Still waiting on the rest of it to see if that northwest motion continues to landfall or a turn due north occurs as in previous runs.

Well, as I am typing this it is now out to 120 hours and the net result is about the same. Looks like after 96 hours she turns NNW and lanfalls between Matagorda and Freeport Texas. But the trek further west in the GOM delays the landfall about 18 hours or so until Saturday evening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ex_l.shtml

Thanks tw861, this is valuable info. It has moved more in line with the other models then--a Matagorda Bay to Galveston Bay hit. The only major global model that is far away from this area is NOGAPS--still near Brownsville--it will be interesting to see where it ends up. Also, note that there are studies of how the models do for each storm. For instance, for Ophelia, the two best performing models (that I recognize) were the CONU--Consensus and the Official Forecast--they were by far the best (and that was for 120 hour forecasts too). So, the fact that they're over the same place, and the AVN has finally moved there too is reason enough to be concerned in Houston tonight.

[flyingphish]

Rita is close to vertical. The evacuation of the very warm water temp. is mega evident from imagery. She may be quite a force by morning time.

[MWatkins]

Just watching the mid-level radar returns...there are couple of things to note.

1. The mid-level signature looks to be ellipitical shaped so far.

2. The northern extent of the center has made a little poleward progress in the last couple of hours.

Looks like the upper keys are going to get an outer band in the next hour or so. This bad weather should begin to propogate northward along the coast by 3AM EDT.

MW