Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[audioslave8]

the nhc track has adjusted to the left a little now looking better for new orleans we will have to see if this is a continued trend back to the original forecast in a couple of more days

[dwg71]

As long as high pressure sits over tx, expect track to be pushed further and further south...

[Lori]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 200851
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005



the radar presentation of Rita is slowly becoming better defined...
but the cyclone still lacks a clear and persistent eyewall
signature. Flight-level and dropsonde observations from the Air
Force reconaissance aircraft still do not quite support upgrading
Rita to a hurricane. A peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 72 kt winds
would correspond to 65 kt in an eyewall...but Rita does not have a
true eyewall and dropsonde data indicate that 90 percent is not the
appropriate adjustment with this storm at this time. The intensity
will be held at 60 kt at this time.
Rita remains basically on track...with an initial motion of 285/13.
Little change has been made to the official forecast in the early
going...as Rita moves south of mid-level high pressure through the
Florida Straits. Late in the forecast period...the GFS...UKMET...
and GFDL models have shifted westward toward the middle Texas
coast...while the NOGAPS is still on the south end of the guidance
envelope in extreme south Texas. The official forecast is adjusted
a little westward toward the dynamical model consensus. At this
point it is way to early to specify where the Gulf landfall might
occur.
Rita is still expected to reach hurricane strength very soon. The
upper-level flow pattern is favorable for strengthening but not
overly so...with outflow a little squashed to the north and
non-existent to the south...and the upper anticyclone located well
to the east of the center. Even the radar presentation looks
elongated. Steady...but not explosive development is likely during
the next 12 to 24 hours. The upper pattern could improve somewhat
in the Gulf of Mexico and Rita is still forecast to become a major
hurricane. The most recent SHIPS guidance...however...does not
quite get Rita there...and I would not be shocked if Rita ends up
falling just short of that threshold.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 23.7n 79.5w 60 kt
12hr VT 20/1800z 24.1n 81.7w 70 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 24.4n 84.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 24.6n 87.0w 90 kt
48hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 89.3w 95 kt
72hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 93.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 24/0600z 28.5n 96.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 97.5w 35 kt...inland

[oneness]

Banding looking much better all around the storm on radar now, and the shape of the eye a bit less elongated.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[Stratosphere747]

As long as high pressure sits over tx, expect track to be pushed further and further south...

The High was always supposed to sit over Texas for the next few days...

It's a matter of when it moves east and the weakness begins to take effect..

[arlwx]

It's darn simple if you take a look at old maps of the West Indies. For the past 18 hours or so, Rita has been going over the banks of the Bahamas where the deepest water depth has been 50 feet or so, interspersed with islands. A very wet Everglades. Like Katrina, it didn't gain but it didn't lose much either. Now that Rita is about to plunge into some deeper water (at least for a bit), that may aid intensification.

[oneness]

She's looking better and better on radar now, especially to the south. Shouldn't be too far from an upgrade.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[Thunder44]

It also looks like it's slowing down.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Holy Crap!

[O Town]

Seems to me that she is taking a more northernly approach. Instead of going south of Key West it looks like she will be going over Marathon, or between Marathon and Key Largo. The upper keys. Closer to main land.

[fci]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Holy Crap!

HEY; great to see you this morning.
I have not had my "Holy Crap" dose for a while and missed it!!!!!

[mf_dolphin]

Seems to me that she is taking a more northernly approach. Instead of going south of Key West it looks like she will be going over Marathon, or between Marathon and Key Largo. The upper keys. Closer to main land.

I don't know what you're looking at but it appears to be on track to go south of Key West. Maybe another cup of coffee for you

[Jevo]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Holy Crap!

If you keep bugging your eyes like that.. they might pop out

[chrisnnavarre]

Really...I think she will eventually clip the mainland....you can see erosion of the ridge through Miss./Ala border from Georgia..Rita is being pulled directly toward it if what I'm seeing is correct.. Look for models to adjust at 11:00am.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... us&type=wv

Hey I'm a tropical low now!

[Mac]

I think some people are being tricked by the convection. Rita's center is on the southwest side of the strong convection. If you click on the forecast points and look carefully for the eye (you can see it best on the last frame of the loop), you can clearly see that Rita's center is still on track to go across the southern-most Keys. Don't be fooled by the area of deep convection to the northeast of her center.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT TO REACH RITA...WILL DETERMINE IF IT
IS A HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
BETWEEN...WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[skysummit]

The way she's moving now, I wouldn't be surprised for her to go just south of Key West.

[Air Force Met]

Guys...it going SOUTH of the keys. Key West may get clipped by the northern part of the eye. It's not going to the mainland...and it's going west as long as the high stays there. That's always been the forecast. The trick is timing WHEN the high will receede. It will receede...it's just a matter of when. The latest GFS solution is reasonable to me. As most here know...my point for the last 2 days has been somewhere b/w port lavaca and Sargent/Freeport area. That point is centered on Matagorda. I think the GFS was overplaying the trough, which it always does in the early part of fall...as all of you in Texas and LA know by the fact it advertises a NICE cold front (usually by this time) only to materialize into a windshift.

So careful attention needs to be paid...starting later today...on how well the models are initializing the trough and how well they are handling it.

[skysummit]

Good post AFM. Thanks for the clarification. It is going south of Key West.