ANYONE GOT 12Z MODELS YET

[jwayne]

i know we already have models thread, but didn't see anything and time is getting short (ortt says late thursday landfall possible)

[HouTXmetro]

I'm waiting also. Should we expect the models to continue to trend south?

[cjrciadt]

i know we already have models thread, but didn't see anything and time is getting short (ortt says late thursday landfall possible)

I put the model pic in the offical Rita thread.

[Stratosphere747]

The speed is now becoming the key...

Plus the new models will have the NOAA flight info from last night.

[loon]

Won't the 12Z have the Gulfstream info also?

[LaBreeze]

Speaking of speed, anyone know if she's picking up speed or slowing down some?

[tw861]

12z models here...

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

most clustered between Corpus and Galveston

[HouTXmetro]

Bases on the satelite presentation, doesn't look like she is slowing at all.

[loon]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

[HouTXmetro]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

What gives you that impression? I thought the models are trending south?

[dwg71]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

Really of all those models, only one has it as far east as Freeport.

I think the GFS has underestimated the ridge again. Time will tell. Forward speed pickup is a good sign that it will be further south. Lets hope the continues.

[jwayne]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

freeport does seem to have a bullseye on it. storm headed north at 15 hitting freeport as cat 4 would be absolute disaster for houston/galveston. analogy from katrina: houston/galveston geographically would be like mississippi coast (not saying that kind of damage)

[jwayne]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

Really of all those models, only one has it as far east as Freeport.

I think the GFS has underestimated the ridge again. Time will tell. Forward speed pickup is a good sign that it will be further south. Lets hope the continues.

two models are dead on freeport and one on galveston.

[loon]

jeez, its just my thoughts on calling a landfall. Matagorda bay to freeport isnt THAT large a distance, and I think that area will see the eye. However that puts Houston in the NE quad. The models swung from border to border of Texas in the last 2 days (various models have) so I'm just saying, my interpretation would be freeport area.

cheers
loon

[deltadog03]

models shifted a little east or north....gfdl is just south of galveston again...we will play this game for 4 days...lol 00z Euro is just south of galveston again...

[BamaMan]

I think we will see shifts as far East as NOLA and back in the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out

[HouTXmetro]

models shifted a little east or north....gfdl is just south of galveston again...we will play this game for 4 days...lol 00z Euro is just south of galveston again...

You are right, I don't want people to get to complacent here in Houston. It does appear we can breath a slight sigh of releif based on morning discussions that Rita is moving pretty fast therefore giving here less time to turn North into Galveston. That's why we will be watching the models closely. In this situation, 50-100 miles will make a HUGE difference.

[x-y-no]

The whole cluster on the right are models based on the GFS grid, so if the GFS has overplayed the strength of the trough, that whole set of guidance is suspect.

I note that the CMC, which isn't the greatest at tropical systems but does handle mid-latitude dynamics pretty well, is more in line with the NOGAPS in taking Rita further south.

[Stratosphere747]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

freeport does seem to have a bullseye on it. storm headed north at 15 hitting freeport as cat 4 would be absolute disaster for houston/galveston. analogy from katrina: houston/galveston geographically would be like mississippi coast (not saying that kind of damage)

Sometimes I get a bit upset of all the Galveston/Houston talk...

People forget that there is a fairly significant amount of people in the Brazoria area. And a cat4 into Freeport would be nothing less of a disaster for those of us that live down here..

Not picking at you jwayne, but don't forget about us down here..

Scott

[loon]

I think we will see shifts as far East as NOLA and back in the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out

You could be right, but with her forward speed not seeming to budge, I think your eastern shifts might be overwith. Southern movement and back is highly possible as the models get a grasp on her speed. We are about to enter into the 3 day out area which we can all agree the models do pretty well with.

cheers,
loon