Houston, Miami, Tampa!

[StormFury]

I believe that these cities are extremely vulnerable to hurricances and that it will be only a matter of time before they take a direct hit by a major hurricane. I remember seeing a lot of indifferent posts from New Orleans last year on storm2k with the attitude that "No storm will ever get that close to me here in New Orleans. They usually hit the panhandle of Florida/Alabama (Ivan, Dennis) or veer towards Southern Texas/Mexico border."(Emily) Well this year changed that and made it known to the world that hurricanes are not merciful...they do not care where they strike, whether its a large city or a nursing home near the sea!

Anyways, I think that Houston, Miami, and especially Tampa are very overdue for major hurricanes. Climatologically, South Florida/Miami is supposed to see a major hurricane every 9 years. Tampa has not see one since Donna, which occured nearly 40 years ago! And Houston hasn't seen one since the 1950s.

We could see another New Orleans event materialize when the center of a major hurricane finally decides to come within 50 miles of the downtown Houston, Tampa, and Miami metro areas. I'm sure many people in Tampa have been placed in a deadly lull, especially after seeing Georges and Charley and countless other storms miss them. Miamians have been placed into some reality with Category 1 Katrina. Houston residents may have the same false sense of security that Tampa residents share with them. Either way, these cities are in for a future rude awakening! Rita might be eying Houston as I type, and late September/October storms might eye Miami and/or Tampa as cold fronts steer southern Gulf of Mexico storms ENE from the Yucatan straits to the Florida peninsula. This last track is especially common in October according to The Weather Channel's typical storm paths.

[inotherwords]

Nature runs on her own schedule though. Just because some city is overdue doesn't mean it will be hit soon.

Jacksonville and Savannah are overdue also, along with the northeastern cities.

[HurricaneGirl]

Hey!

SF! Good to see you back.

[StormFury]

Jacksonville and Savannah are not climatologically favored as storm targets, especially since they jut inwards with the curvature of the East Coast. However, since Southern Florida and the Outer Banks of NC jut outwards from the rest of the East Coast, they have seen the most Atlantic storms. And Northeastern cities like NYC, Atlantic City, and Boston are also not favored for the same reason. If there is going to be any landfall in the Northeast, it will be near Martha's vineyard/Cap Cod. If you follow the typical storm paths (courtesy of The Weather Channel), you will see that NC, Florida (southern and panhandle), northern Gulf Coast, and southern Texas are the most favored areas. And since Tampa, Miami, and Houston are overdue for a direct impact with a major hurricane, it DOES mean that it will happen soon according to the laws of probability.

[gtalum]

...it DOES mean that it will happen soon according to the laws of probability.

I think you misunderstand the laws of probability.

The odds of a hurricane strike in any given year on a given location are exactly the same regardless of whether that place has been hit recently or not.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Here in Tampa, "Donna" was not considered a hit at all. It came nearby, but not any more of a direct impact than last years storms that blew through after crossing the state.
In fact, it is well known locally that our last big storm to hit the area was in fact the 1926 storm. That CAT3 went into FL just north of Clearwater, near Tarpon Springs I believe. That caused a lot fo damage, but luckily occurred before any real development and the population was small.
So it has been nearly 80 years since our area got a direct hit from a big storm. We have however been impacted indirectly from big ones or had tropical storms blow through more recently.
Also, although a big storm would cause incredible storm surge and flooding, unlike New Orleans, the flooding would be a temporary condition and not a residual one.
Pinellas county would become 2 islands during the surge. Downtown Tampa could be under as much as 28 feet of water during a surge from a storm coming from the SW because of the Bay's shallow structure. But again, the water would come and go.
It is the population of folks here, none of which were probably even alive and lived here during 1926, that have become so complacent thinking that they have experienced a true hurricane when they really haven't ever experienced anythign more than hurricane force gusts.

[inotherwords]

...it DOES mean that it will happen soon according to the laws of probability.

I think you misunderstand the laws of probability.

The odds of a hurricane strike in any given year on a given location are exactly the same regardless of whether that place has been hit recently or not.

Exactly right.

I believe that these cities are extremely vulnerable to hurricances and that it will be only a matter of time before they take a direct hit by a major hurricane.

Given that this is pretty much conventional wisdom, I doubt that anyone here would disagree with this statement.

[TampaFl]

Here in Tampa, "Donna" was not considered a hit at all. It came nearby, but not any more of a direct impact than last years storms that blew through after crossing the state.
In fact, it is well known locally that our last big storm to hit the area was in fact the 1926 storm. That CAT3 went into FL just north of Clearwater, near Tarpon Springs I believe. That caused a lot fo damage, but luckily occurred before any real development and the population was small.
So it has been nearly 80 years since our area got a direct hit from a big storm. We have however been impacted indirectly from big ones or had tropical storms blow through more recently.
Also, although a big storm would cause incredible storm surge and flooding, unlike New Orleans, the flooding would be a temporary condition and not a residual one.
Pinellas county would become 2 islands during the surge. Downtown Tampa could be under as much as 28 feet of water during a surge from a storm coming from the SW because of the Bay's shallow structure. But again, the water would come and go.
It is the population of folks here, none of which were probably even alive and lived here during 1926, that have become so complacent thinking that they have experienced a true hurricane when they really haven't ever experienced anythign more than hurricane force gusts.

That should read October 1921

Robert

[vbhoutex]

First of all this poster is not Stormsfury. He/she is a new member.


2nd of all it would be good if you get your facts correct before you post them Stormfury. Houston had Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and it was called a CAT3 at landfall. Reanalysis may change that, but we have had Alicia and that little ole TS Allison(2001-5B damage) since the 50's besides many other lesser ones.

Yes we are vulnerable to a major cane-every city along the GOM coast is every year. We are not vulnerable in the same way as NO was due to our topography and the fact there are only a few areas that have levees around them near Galveston Bay. In comparison to the MS coast some areas along our coast could suffer the same fate as our friends in MS did with a CAT5 size surge(not saying this is what is coming). Storm surge could be a major problem for large areas of Eastern Houston due to Glaveston Bay and the rivers and bayous coming into it funneling the surge higher as it moves up the bay.

Just a few tidbits there that needed some correction.

[JPmia]

I believe that these cities are extremely vulnerable to hurricances and that it will be only a matter of time before they take a direct hit by a major hurricane. I remember seeing a lot of indifferent posts from New Orleans last year on storm2k with the attitude that "No storm will ever get that close to me here in New Orleans. They usually hit the panhandle of Florida/Alabama (Ivan, Dennis) or veer towards Southern Texas/Mexico border."(Emily) Well this year changed that and made it known to the world that hurricanes are not merciful...they do not care where they strike, whether its a large city or a nursing home near the sea!

Anyways, I think that Houston, Miami, and especially Tampa are very overdue for major hurricanes. Climatologically, South Florida/Miami is supposed to see a major hurricane every 9 years. Tampa has not see one since Donna, which occured nearly 40 years ago! And Houston hasn't seen one since the 1950s.

We could see another New Orleans event materialize when the center of a major hurricane finally decides to come within 50 miles of the downtown Houston, Tampa, and Miami metro areas. I'm sure many people in Tampa have been placed in a deadly lull, especially after seeing Georges and Charley and countless other storms miss them. Miamians have been placed into some reality with Category 1 Katrina. Houston residents may have the same false sense of security that Tampa residents share with them. Either way, these cities are in for a future rude awakening! Rita might be eying Houston as I type, and late September/October storms might eye Miami and/or Tampa as cold fronts steer southern Gulf of Mexico storms ENE from the Yucatan straits to the Florida peninsula. This last track is especially common in October according to The Weather Channel's typical storm paths.

Stormfury, we have hashed the "most vulnerable" cities many times on this board. In fact, go look back to early this season when there was nothing to talk about and we discussed this a lot. I appreciate your thoughts though. I have thought about many times considering where I live and especially knowing what happened in New Orleans this year. I know it will happen sometime and when it does I will just have to deal with it. There is nothing I can do about it but have my house and family prepared!.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

oops, yup! I saw that I had my date wrong as soon as I posted!
so its been more like 85 years!

-guess we are way overdue

[Tri-State_1925]

I believe that these cities are extremely vulnerable to hurricances and that it will be only a matter of time before they take a direct hit by a major hurricane. I remember seeing a lot of indifferent posts from New Orleans last year on storm2k with the attitude that "No storm will ever get that close to me here in New Orleans. They usually hit the panhandle of Florida/Alabama (Ivan, Dennis) or veer towards Southern Texas/Mexico border."(Emily) Well this year changed that and made it known to the world that hurricanes are not merciful...they do not care where they strike, whether its a large city or a nursing home near the sea!

Anyways, I think that Houston, Miami, and especially Tampa are very overdue for major hurricanes. Climatologically, South Florida/Miami is supposed to see a major hurricane every 9 years. Tampa has not see one since Donna, which occured nearly 40 years ago! And Houston hasn't seen one since the 1950s.

We could see another New Orleans event materialize when the center of a major hurricane finally decides to come within 50 miles of the downtown Houston, Tampa, and Miami metro areas. I'm sure many people in Tampa have been placed in a deadly lull, especially after seeing Georges and Charley and countless other storms miss them. Miamians have been placed into some reality with Category 1 Katrina. Houston residents may have the same false sense of security that Tampa residents share with them. Either way, these cities are in for a future rude awakening! Rita might be eying Houston as I type, and late September/October storms might eye Miami and/or Tampa as cold fronts steer southern Gulf of Mexico storms ENE from the Yucatan straits to the Florida peninsula. This last track is especially common in October according to The Weather Channel's typical storm paths.

First off, this stuff you are saying about Tampa and Miami is hardly original, and passing it off like some breakthrough revelation is scandalous indeed.

Secondly, who from NO was saying it will never get hit by a hurricane? That's ridiculous...

[BocaGirl]

And since Tampa, Miami, and Houston are overdue for a direct impact with a major hurricane, it DOES mean that it will happen soon according to the laws of probability.

The overdue topic has been dicussed to death year after year. Maybe the poster is new here and hasn't seen the original posts? Whenever I see a statement like the quote above, I always think somethink like Yeah, So?

First, it's not like most of the folks who live in those cities are going to pick up and move because they think their days are numbered. Hurricanes are fickle. Miami's "overdue" storm could zap West Palm Beach and Houston's intended storm could skirt down the Texas coast.

Also, this overdue business seems silly in the context of other life events. Can someone tell me , seriously please, is a person who drives daily on a highway like I-95 or I-10 overdue for a car crash? Or how about the flu? If you haven't had it for a while, are you "overdue" for catching a bad case this year? I just don't see the difference.

Maybe waiting for the effects of Rita here in Boca Raton has made me peevish. Except for a few brief rain squalls, we've seen nothing and the sun is trying to peep out at this moment. Talk about overdue.....never mind......

BocaGirl
Barbara

[temujin]

And since Tampa, Miami, and Houston are overdue for a direct impact with a major hurricane, it DOES mean that it will happen soon according to the laws of probability.

Nope. Statistics 101- if you flip a coin 15 times and it lands on "heads", then your next flip still has a 50% chance of being heads (unless it's a weighted coin).