Joe B.: cat 4 to galveston

[arcticfire]

The NHC tropical weather glossary defines rapid and explosive deepening, and although their definitiions contain some maddening inconsistencies, everyone should read and memorize the general rules for those characterizations.

I hear people use the word "bombing" when there is a build-up of convection around the center of a storm. While it may look impressive, it doesn't necessarily translate into rapid or explosive intensification.

It's all in the pressure readings and how much they drop over what period of time. That's the test, not visual observations, or observations of artificially colored animations of images taken at wavelengths other than those of visible light.

No need to split hairs. A really impressive explosion (to quote jim on TWC) of convection at the center is grounds imo to call it bombing. We are not talking about latin identifiers here , this is just some discriptive terminology.

[curtadams]

jwayne can you us more details on Joe B. Since I live 30 miles NW of Galveston I need all the info I can get.

JB is the lead forecaster for Accuweather. He consistently makes sensationalistic forecasts, presumably to pump up their subscriptions. Note he predicts "into Galveston" - the most memorable hurricane location in TX - rather than a range or a place *near* Galveston. For example, Ophelia was going to go into NO and Philippe was going to hit the East Coast. Occasionally his sensationalism is correct, as in Katrina, when he shifted to the NO hit 12 hours before the models and the NHC did. These successes are hyped to the skies, presumably to pump up their subscriptions.

He does seem a capable meteorologist. My impression is the Accuweather does do better than the NHC at predicting which tropical disturbances will progress to cyclones. However, he also has a big ego and so it's hard to tell when it's his meterological skills talking, when it's his ego, and when it's shilling for Accuweather.

Truthfully nobody can place Rita's landfall yet with any precision. Watch the NHC cone - it's pretty honest. When Rita is within 3 days, you can get probabilities of a near pass from their site and those are honest too.

[temujin]

The NHC is more calm and reasonable, and in a very real sense more honest. It's more responsible to just say "Rita could hit anywhere along the Texas cast." Because the simple fact is, that's all we know right now and everyone in that area needs to keep their eyes on this thing.

[jasons2k]

jwayne can you us more details on Joe B. Since I live 30 miles NW of Galveston I need all the info I can get.

JB is the lead forecaster for Accuweather. He consistently makes sensationalistic forecasts, presumably to pump up their subscriptions. Note he predicts "into Galveston" - the most memorable hurricane location in TX - rather than a range or a place *near* Galveston. For example, Ophelia was going to go into NO and Philippe was going to hit the East Coast. Occasionally his sensationalism is correct, as in Katrina, when he shifted to the NO hit 12 hours before the models and the NHC did. These successes are hyped to the skies, presumably to pump up their subscriptions.

He does seem a capable meteorologist. My impression is the Accuweather does do better than the NHC at predicting which tropical disturbances will progress to cyclones. However, he also has a big ego and so it's hard to tell when it's his meterological skills talking, when it's his ego, and when it's shilling for Accuweather.

Truthfully nobody can place Rita's landfall yet with any precision. Watch the NHC cone - it's pretty honest. When Rita is within 3 days, you can get probabilities of a near pass from their site and those are honest too.

Actually here is what he said in his discussion:

"In any case, the idea of the hit between Corpus and lake Charles friday night, centered on Galveston is where I am now, so here is the position forecast."

That looks like a range to me.

[curtadams]

Actually here is what he said in his discussion:

"In any case, the idea of the hit between Corpus and lake Charles friday night, centered on Galveston is where I am now, so here is the position forecast."

That looks like a range to me.

Fair enough. That's a fair forecast, and only sensationlization is the choice of Galveston as the reference. Since it's reasonably accurate, and given that his job is to sell subscriptions, I don't see anything wrong with it. I assumed from the original poster's panic that he'd been more specific - which he sometimes is.

[wolfmmiii]

Actually here is what he said in his discussion:

"In any case, the idea of the hit between Corpus and lake Charles friday night, centered on Galveston is where I am now, so here is the position forecast."

That looks like a range to me.

Fair enough. That's a fair forecast, and only sensationlization is the choice of Galveston as the reference. Since it's reasonably accurate, and given that his job is to sell subscriptions, I don't see anything wrong with it. I assumed from the original poster's panic that he'd been more specific - which he sometimes is.

That's the problem around here. Too many people just assume when bashing Joe B. I'm willing to bet over 70% of those JB bashers NEVER even read his statements before blasting them. Look, he's a professional. It's about time we give him credit. He doesn't seem to be all that less (or more) accurate than all the other outlets.

[Roxy]

I am not a JB fan, mainly cus I see him on Fox News and he is a DORK.

I hope he's wrong on this one, but I know he knows his stuff.

[x-y-no]

I understand that JB has begun posting forecast positions and intensities for storms recently. Could someone who subscribes to the accuweather pro site do us the favor of posting those numbers here so we can do verifications on them?

I think that would fall within fair use, as long as you don't post big chunks of his column.

[tw861]

JB is near Freeport with his landfall. (which is not all that far from the NHC's 11am, probably 40-50 miles) 935mb 120 ks.

In fact his track, which he put out earlier is never very far from the TPC's. The last 24 hours JB has more of a turn to the NNW and the TPC moves NW.

[Johnny]

So as of Tuesday (today), Joe B. is thinking a Freeport, Texas hit? The time and dates are always wrong on whoever is posting so that is why I am asking.

[superfly]

No need to split hairs. A really impressive explosion (to quote jim on TWC) of convection at the center is grounds imo to call it bombing. We are not talking about latin identifiers here , this is just some discriptive terminology.

Bombing i.e. rapid intensification is classified as an increase of 35+ MPH in max sustained winds in 24 hours. An impressive burst of convection is not bombing. Pressure-wise, deepening is defined as a drop in pressure of 24mb in 24 hours and rapid deepening is a drop of 42mb in 24 hours.