ANYONE GOT 12Z MODELS YET

[djtil]

PLEASE models, bring remnants to Dallas!! Lets not forget the beauty of tropical systems and their water moving brilliance....DFW needs the rain.

[raynpa]

Dont relax anywhere in Texas or La. yet, Rita is not even in the gom yet......models will probally change again.

[skysummit]

Dont relax anywhere in Texas or La. yet, Rita is not even in the gom yet......models will probally change again.

She would need to start a more NW track soon to afffect La. and there is nothing there right now to help her go to the north. So, unless she slows down, I think SELa is ok, but I would still be nervous if I was in SWLa.

[tw861]

Zack says:

"Loon enjoy the storm. If you get a Cat 4, it is No Fun Afterwards. No Power, No Water, House Damage, Mold.. Uhhh just thinking about it makes me sick. Stay Away From New Orleans!!!"

I doubt anybody here in SE Texas will enjoy the storm, but it is time to prepare for the possiblity. Avila said confidence is high in the current (11am) forecast track. And as I said before a hit around Matagorda moving NW or NNW puts Houston on the bad side no matter how you try to spin it.

No wishing here, my family and I are booked on a flight out of Hobby airport at 8am Saturday morning. If this forecast is even close to verifying, the center will only be about 50 miles west of there at that time. So I doubt I am going anywhere.

[djtil]

i think a "miss" would be a miss further south/west than currently predicted....just dont see much chance of a LA "miss".

[cajungal]

Dont relax anywhere in Texas or La. yet, Rita is not even in the gom yet......models will probally change again.

She would need to start a more NW track soon to afffect La. and there is nothing there right now to help her go to the north. So, unless she slows down, I think SELa is ok, but I would still be nervous if I was in SWLa.

I agree, skysummit. She would have to slow down or something. Then, the trough could have time to pick her up before hitting TX. But, I don't see anything that would suggest that right now. Even a hit in SW Louisiana, we would get a lot of rain here in Terrebonne Parish. But, I don't think I see a LA hit at this time. Galveston to Corpus Christi seems like the best bet for landfall right now.

[TS Zack]

Thats what I am trying to say. Scare You! Get out if your in an evacuation zone and prepare for that!

Like Dr. Oliver would say, RUNNNNNNNNN!

[dwg71]

When is next UKMET available?

[deltadog03]

here is the 12z GFS...shifted a tad north...maybe 20-30 miles...pretty much near or just south of galveston....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114m.gif

i would expect the gfdl and bams to be very close to this

[raynpa]

this might be the start of another northward trend.

[corpusbreeze]

Aside from looking at the models, Ive been looking at the water vapor loop. The ridge looks strong, and does not seem to be shifting. Hey lets not write Rita off as a N. Mexico srtike. Ill wait untill tomorrow to think about supplies and boarding up, nobody wants to put up the first board as to not look like an idiot on my street, but there is still plenty of time.

[corpusbreeze]

Aside from looking at the models, Ive been looking at the water vapor loop. The ridge looks strong, and does not seem to be shifting. Hey lets not write Rita off as a N. Mexico srtike. Ill wait untill tomorrow to think about supplies and boarding up, nobody wants to put up the first board as to not look like an idiot on my street, but there is still plenty of time.