Help-Rita size/impact 116 miles NE of Projected Landfall?

[Jagno]

I need some cane/evac for dummies assistance here. I live exactly 116 miles NE of the current projected landfall in Galveston. I have a bed ridden Mother-in-law, a child with a broken right leg, 2 of my sons have been given emergency clearance but will be on lock-down in the city due to their jobs, a home and a business to prepare and a husband who cannot help due to the fact that he's still cooking 90,000 meals per day for the N.O. evacuees. What would the projected impact be for my area? I'm 20 miles from the gulf coast in SW Louisiana. This is just a best guestimate that I am asking for to decide whether to get out while I still can instead of waiting for the mass evacuation. Our only road north is under very heavy construction so the earlier the better if I should leave.

[Brent]

Actually the 5am track has a landfall near Matagorda... which is 80 miles southwest of Galveston... if that verifies, probably not seeing much other than a few squalls and a threat of tornadoes.

Hitting Galveston would probably give you some tropical storm force winds... don't think the hurricane force winds would be that wide, but you never know.

Are you in a flood plain??? That would be the main concern...

[mvtrucking]

Thats a tough one Jagno. With Louisiana still in the cone I would seriously keep a close eye on this storm. If you have the means to take a few days and someone to help you(And a place to go) maybe it would be smart. With a family member that is not ambulatory it is a hard decision. Good luck and God Bless.

[soonertwister]

It sounds like to me that you are in an area where the NHC is currently estimating only about a 5-10% chance of experiencing any hurricane force winds.

Probably of greater concern than wind is what your chances are of experiencing significant storm surge effects. If you are in, for example, Hackberry, that town is very near sea level, right next to a significant body of water, and being to the right of the projected path is not the side to be on in a large storm, particularly if it gets strong, or becomes a major category 3 or higher storm.

In another 24-36 hours your situation should become much clearer, and you will still have plenty of time to get out if you make your preparations now. Because you are in a low-population area, you shouldn't have the kind of gridlock that can be seen in large metro areas if you evacuate.

Most of all, pay close attention to what your local authorities and National Weather Service office have to say. It goes without saying that what they advise you to do should be followed before anything that we can tell you on this board.

[curtadams]

20 miles inland you won't see any surge and winds will be greatly weakened. If you are in a sturdy house and are not subject to rain-induced flooding you are very, very unlikely to be killed even with a direct hit by a major hurricane. If you live in a trailer or in a floodplain then local evacuation to a shelter will suffice. So evacuation, for you, is mostly a convenience issue (ie, is evacuating easier than spending 1 week without power, etc.) and it sounds like it would be a tremendous burden to evacuate. So, I think you're best off laying in nonperishable food and drinking water and locating a sturdy non-flooding building to stay in if necessary. Also remember that your chance of being hit is not that great and you do have several days.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Curtadams, I beg to differ regarding your comment about winds being lower 20 miles from shore. Especially with a large storm, this may be completely false. If the eye is say 20 miles wide, guess what? -that 20 miles inland means nothing. Also, being inland on steepening ground can have the effect of increased winds. Now, if you were 100 miles inland, you should expect weakening winds, but 20 not necessarily at all.

[jes]

I feel so bad for you---the decision to leave with disabled people is so hard. One thing that worked for me during Dennis was a respite room at a local strong nursing home. The home will admit for one or two days and you can stay with your mother in law if you wish to. The NH will have a generator. Plus, there's RN's, LPN's and CNA's to help and 9/11 will respond first to a NH before a private home. Good luck

[soonertwister]

20 miles inland you won't see any surge and winds will be greatly weakened. If you are in a sturdy house and are not subject to rain-induced flooding you are very, very unlikely to be killed even with a direct hit by a major hurricane. If you live in a trailer or in a floodplain then local evacuation to a shelter will suffice. So evacuation, for you, is mostly a convenience issue (ie, is evacuating easier than spending 1 week without power, etc.) and it sounds like it would be a tremendous burden to evacuate. So, I think you're best off laying in nonperishable food and drinking water and locating a sturdy non-flooding building to stay in if necessary. Also remember that your chance of being hit is not that great and you do have several days.

I have a big problem with that statement. If you are to the right side of a large major hurricane, you can be at a significant distance from the center, never experience hurricane force winds, and still suffer catastrophic storm surge, even 20 miles inland. Perhaps you don't remember an old hurricane named Katrina?

Take a look at the area we are talking about here. Hackberry and Grand Lake, LA, both seem to be about 20 miles inland. Would you guarantee the safety of people there?

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?se ... a&zipcode=

Just click on the map in far southwest Louisiana a couple of times, and you'll see what area we are dealing with.

Don't give that kind of advice to people. Let the local emergency officials be their guide. They know a heck of a lot more what the situation is than you do.