Our Local Met In Dallas Said..

[canegrl04]

Rita's track is pretty certain now.She going to Texas.Won't be Galveston but somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston.Will bring lots of rain to North Texas. (Fox affiliate)

[djtil]

i think the trend is pretty certain, but the exact timing of the nw turn is not....and that will mean a big difference as to who gets the much needed rain.......im hoping for dallas too....so sick of these 100 degree days.


it definitely looks that at the worse the trough that will eventually come will have extra tropical moisture to work with.....but a direct hit would be awesome.

[jasons2k]

Only DFW Met I trust is David Finfrock. Channel 4 is just echoing the NHC. He's not any more confident, he's just replaying the NHC discussion.

And it may or may not be Galveston this far out. I guess he didn't read the last part about the "little black line"...

[Mac]

I think it's way too early for anybody to be saying where Rita will make landfall, with any degree of certainty. I personally believe that Rita's path is going to be quite difficult to predict as she makes her northward turn. Remember, the edges of high pressure systems are not straight lines (like a paper cut), they are jagged (like a torn piece of paper). Assuming the high pressure system begins to subside, Rita is going to feel her way along this jagged edge, bouncing off of the high pressure system like a spinning top bounces off of a wall. She's going to want to go north, and the stronger she is the harder she'll push against that wall trying to turn towards the pole.

Further, the "when" and "how" of the ridge subsiding is going to have a dramatic impact on Rita's track. If she tracks further south into the Gulf and the ridge withdraws rather quickly, we would probably see a more northerly component to her track when she finally makes the turn. If she stays in the middle of the Gulf and the ridge withdraws slowly, we would probably see more of a gradual northwest motion once she turns. IMHO, I believe the more gradual NW turn would bode worse for the folks in Corpus to Galveston, and the risk of a Galveston/Houston hit increase if the ridge withdraws more quickly and Rita ends up heading more northerly after her turn.

[jasons2k]

I think it's way too early for anybody to be saying where Rita will make landfall, with any degree of certainty. I personally believe that Rita's path is going to be quite difficult to predict as she makes her northward turn. Remember, the edges of high pressure systems are not straight lines (like a paper cut), they are jagged (like a torn piece of paper). Assuming the high pressure system begins to subside, Rita is going to feel her way along this jagged edge, bouncing off of the high pressure system like a spinning top bounces off of a wall. She's going to want to go north, and the stronger she is the harder she'll push against that wall trying to turn towards the pole.

Further, the "when" and "how" of the ridge subsiding is going to have a dramatic impact on Rita's track. If she tracks further south into the Gulf and the ridge withdraws rather quickly, we would probably see a more northerly component to her track when she finally makes the turn. If she stays in the middle of the Gulf and the ridge withdraws slowly, we would probably see more of a gradual northwest motion once she turns. IMHO, I believe the more gradual NW turn would bode worse for the folks in Corpus to Galveston, and the risk of a Galveston/Houston hit increase if the ridge withdraws more quickly and Rita ends up heading more northerly after her turn.

Mac, you are exactly right IMO. We can get a general feel this far out but the timing and angle will mean everything come Friday, and any jog will make a huge difference in the ultimate landfall point.

[mchaney2028]

Port O'Connor.

Hurricane Claudette left Victoria w/o power for days and wiped out a bunch of old trees. It was only a CAT 1.

It's been a long time since Carla.

Let's all hope and pray soemhow the ridge stays intact and forces this thing to the King Ranch area or even Mexico.

[THead]

Let's all hope and pray soemhow the ridge stays intact and forces this thing to the King Ranch area or even Mexico.

Oh boy, Gilbert88 aint gonna like that one bit!

[Roxy]

Well I feel better, the Dallas met says it won't be Galveston.

/sarcasm off

Not aimed at the original poster, thanks for letting us know what they are saying.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Well I feel better, the Dallas met says it won't be Galveston.

/sarcasm off

Not aimed at the original poster, thanks for letting us know what they are saying.

I don't think any met would say that at this point.