New GFDL

[hicksta]

Is the new GFDL the only one showing Freeport? kinda makes you worry when the GFDL goes back and Joe B is still saying Galveston according to his maps.

[HouTXmetro]

Is the new GFDL the only one showing Freeport? kinda makes you worry when the GFDL goes back and Joe B is still saying Galveston according to his maps.

What did the previous GFDL run say?

[hicksta]

Matagorda.

[skysummit]

Is the new GFDL the only one showing Freeport? kinda makes you worry when the GFDL goes back and Joe B is still saying Galveston according to his maps.

Not making me worry! Good luck.

[hicksta]

Yea, but i like on clear lake which is connected to Galveston Bay[/u]

[HouTXmetro]

Yea, but i like on clear lake which is connected to Galveston Bay[/u]

Interesting Run... How many miles seperate Matagorda Bay and Freeport? Is that a big shift East?

[shawn67]

Yea, but i like on clear lake which is connected to Galveston Bay[/u]

Interesting Run... How many miles seperate Matagorda Bay and Freeport? Is that a big shift East?

About 41.5 miles

Shawn

[jasons2k]

GFDL nailed Katrina.

[HouTXmetro]

This is not good, considering the fact the GFS is allegedly back at Galveston.

[jasons2k]

This is not good, considering the fact the GFS is allegedly back at Galveston.

Well GFS and GFDL are in the same camp...but you are right this is not good news for Houston. I expect next NHC advisory will shift right.

[HouTXmetro]

So is there a consensus that Rita strike No further South than Matagorda Bay and No Further East then Beaumont?

[dwg71]

This is not good, considering the fact the GFS is allegedly back at Galveston.

Well GFS and GFDL are in the same camp...but you are right this is not good news for Houston. I expect next NHC advisory will shift right.

The GFS is notorious for eroding ridges too quickly. It all comes down to the High Pressure ridge, if it moves out then it will move more north, if it does not its further south. To me to my untrained eye, it appears that its actually still building west.

time will tell.

[jax]

So is there a consensus that Rita strike No further South than Matagorda Bay and No Further East then Beaumont.

is that a question or a statement?

if it's a question... the answer is no.

[HouTXmetro]

Oh ok, just wondering since the black line has consistantly showed landfall from Galveston to Matagorda TX.

[jax]

Oh ok, just wondering since the black line has consistantly showed landfall from Galveston to Matagorda TX.

it's just too soon to tell... that's all i'm saying.

[jax]

keep in mind that the Friday afternoon before Katrina hit,
less the 65 hours before impact... the NHC had her heading
to the Big Bend area of Florida. That's about 180 miles off
target. That is a HUGE swing inside of 72 hours...

[soonertwister]

Oh ok, just wondering since the black line has consistantly showed landfall from Galveston to Matagorda TX.

Forget the black line, it's merely an estimate of the most probable center track of the storm, based upon NHC best guidance, and it WILL CHANGE between today and tomorrow, and probably the day after that.

Focus on the cone that the forecast track graphic shows. If you are within that cone, you are in an area of risk. Look at all of the products at the National Hurricane Center site ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ ), check for local National Weather Service local hurricane statements, follow the advice of your local emergency preparedness officials.

If you don't know who your local emergency officials are, ask here and people can provide you with links to what you need.

Are you treating this hurricane like it could come directly over your house? You should, because you are well inside the cone. If you plan to evacuate, make sure you know what to do before you leave. Make sure your vehicle(s) are fully fueled now, and keep them topped up.

There is much advice available from the National Hurricane Center and on this site regarding what you need to do to be prepared for a hurricane. Read up and prepare now, so you won't delay if the moment arrives that you need to leave your home, or so that you understand and are prepared for what can happen should you decide to stay.

Don't make decisions based on what people here say, but upon the advice that your local officials give you, and the information provided by the National Hurricane Center and your local weather service office.

If you have any questions at all about anything, please ask. People here are quite willing to help you, but don't just take the first advice you read. If someone here gives you bad advice, someone else is likely to say something about it.

Good luck, stay safe, and I hope Rita goes away from you and your loved ones.

[Nimbus]

So what are the models keying on that results in this east shift?
The ridge is still quite strong and has retrograded northwest some but it does not look as though it will break down soon.
Seems too early for the rapid intensification trend to be in the model runs.
Would the larger high pressure dome over Rita once she gets to be a major cane weaken the westward steering and slow the track?

[Mac]

Yea, but i like on clear lake which is connected to Galveston Bay[/u]

I used to live in Seabrook, and I lived between Nasa Rd 1 and Clear Lake when Alicia hit. If this thing gets anywhere near Galveston you'd better get the hell out of Dodge. The tidal surge will push water into Galveston Bay, and then into Clear Lake. The further inland the water goes the more it is funneled. What you end up with is a tidal surge piling up on top of itself--much higher than what most of the area will get. When Alicia hit, parts of Nasa Rd 1 were covered. Many of the deaths from Alicia were located in the Seabrook area. And Alicia was barely a Cat 3 storm. I'm warning you, my friend, get the hell out of there if this thing gets anywhere near Galveston.

[LarryWx]

I was just told by a met. that the 12Z GFDL is further SW than its prior run, i.e., further away from Galveston.