UNOFFICIAL..Rita #5; 95KTS peak; same general track

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

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Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /rita.html

The intensity forecast doesn't quite allow for a Category 3 now, but still brings it to 95kts in 36 hours. The track forecast is a bit uncertain, since we've yet to see the steering currents set. This forecast is on the right side of the guidance envelope after 72 hours, but is down the center beforehand. I do turn the storm more sharply northwestward than does the concensus; however, since guidance solutions have been moving around a bit, I will only shift slightly left for now, which is now just on the west side of Galveston. Still, anyone along the Texas, and even Louisians coasts should keep an eye on this.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Track graphic available; I had some issues with the software, but they are fixed, so I will release another map in a few more minutes.

Scott

[DESTRUCTION5]

I always read your posts but never post but now i have to...Track OK But strength? No way! This storm will be a Cat 3 at some point in its life most likely a Cat 4...Where the heck do you get that reasoning?

[ncweatherwizard]

New track graphic available.

[ncweatherwizard]

I always read your posts but never post but now i have to...Track OK But strength? No way! This storm will be a Cat 3 at some point in its life most likely a Cat 4...Where the heck do you get that reasoning?

Actually, I would say just the opposite--strength ok; and track er..I don't know about that. I'm basing the intensity on a mass of dry air over the GOM. If some moister air enters the gulf with Rita, then some more intensification is possible; this is how it get to 95kts in 36 hours however. Intensity guidance, which I grant is often enough wrong, peaks at 95kts or 100kts.
As for the track, Rita has remained on track, but is now moving quicker than anticipated, which could mean a pull to the south in later forecasts. Ironically, model guidance is slowing the storm down through 72 hours, so I will be very interested in seeing the 18Z run.

Scott

[DESTRUCTION5]

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[DESTRUCTION5]

I always read your posts but never post but now i have to...Track OK But strength? No way! This storm will be a Cat 3 at some point in its life most likely a Cat 4...Where the heck do you get that reasoning?

Actually, I would say just the opposite--strength ok; and track er..I don't know about that. I'm basing the intensity on a mass of dry air over the GOM. If some moister air enters the gulf with Rita, then some more intensification is possible; this is how it get to 95kts in 36 hours however. Intensity guidance, which I grant is often enough wrong, peaks at 95kts or 100kts.
As for the track, Rita has remained on track, but is now moving quicker than anticipated, which could mean a pull to the south in later forecasts. Ironically, model guidance is slowing the storm down through 72 hours, so I will be very interested in seeing the 18Z run.

Scott

Wanna Reneg?