This is going to get ugly...

[jwayne]

look for wind predictions to start ramping up. Hope panic does not set in.

[cjrciadt]

look for wind predictions to start ramping up. Hope panic does not set in.

IF she reaches major status at 5pm expect all the news orgs. and cable to ramp up greatly. She is knocking on the high side of the wind prob right now.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084912.shtml?chart

[skysummit]

look for wind predictions to start ramping up. Hope panic does not set in.

Where ever she does head, panic would be a good thing as long as it does not get out of hand. The lack of panic was the problem here from Katrina. There were thousands that didn't take her seriously and decided to stay.

[aOl]

Um, GDFL and FSU Superensemble called for cat 4 DAYS ago... why does this surprise people?

[soonertwister]

Um, GDFL and FSU Superensemble called for cat 4 DAYS ago... why does this surprise people?

Because people go by NHC guidance, not ensembles or single models.

At 11AM NHC was still forecasting 100 knots at near landfall. They were forecasting 85 knots winds 24 hours from now. I'm not too surprised, other than seeing dry air entrainment in a strengthening storm.

That's hardly normal. But hurricane intensity forecasting is in it's infancy stage right now. It's extremely hard to get intensity within 10 knots 24 hours from any given moment. If you do, it's more luck than science.

[jax]

look for wind predictions to start ramping up. Hope panic does not set in.

Where ever she does head, panic would be a good thing as long as it does not get out of hand. The lack of panic was the problem here from Katrina. There were thousands that didn't take her seriously and decided to stay.

panic is never a good idea...
keep your head about you...
Listen to the officials and
follow directions. panic creates
caos...

[skysummit]

look for wind predictions to start ramping up. Hope panic does not set in.

Where ever she does head, panic would be a good thing as long as it does not get out of hand. The lack of panic was the problem here from Katrina. There were thousands that didn't take her seriously and decided to stay.

panic is never a good idea...
keep your head about you...
Listen to the officials and
follow directions. panic creates
caos...

There's 2 types of panic....taking things extremely serious and knowing the outcome of disaster, or just going nuts not knowing what you're doing. I'm referring to the first. In New Orleans, we were told Katrina was nothing to get concerned about when it was 175mph heading right for southeast La.

But this is not about Katrina, so back on to Rita.

[Mac]

...chaos, even.

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

[canegrl04]

Forecasting a cane's strength is still pretty tricky.I remember initial forecasts by NHC for Katrina said she would make lanfall as a cat 3.She at one time had winds of 175mph It would not surprise me if Rita juiced up to near cat 5

[Windy]

Um, GDFL and FSU Superensemble called for cat 4 DAYS ago... why does this surprise people?

Because neither of these models are highly accurate about intensity four days out?

[BayouVenteux]

Forecastin a cane's strength is still pretty tricky.I remeber initial forecasts by NHC for Katrina said she would make lanfall as a cat 3.She at one time had winds of 175mph It would not surprise me if Rita juiced up to near cat 5

Very tricky indeed...throw in a lot of climatologically ever-present dry TexMex air to the south and west of the projected landfall area in contrast to the bathwater in the western Gulf and it only complicates an intensity forecast.

[soonertwister]

Speaking of ugly, I have a hunch that some of those people in Key West are wondering if their decision not to leave was such a smart idea.

I don't know how nasty the winds are there right now, but I bet the key is getting pounded by storm surge and large battering waves.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0R_lp.shtml


Temp fate, fate answers the call.

[no advance]

Good observation Bayou Good luck.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is all a mute point folks the modeling is unanimous in a 75mile area..Those in that area need to prepare thier lives and property for a major hurricane becust there is no turning back now...Natrual Disaster # 3 of 2005 is on its way....

[Florida_TSR]

Dennis - CAT 4
Emily - CAT 4
Katrina - CAT 5
Rita - Forecasted CAT 3 (Cat 4 very possible)

The Gulf has never seen this type of activity over the past 150 years.

[ColdWaterConch]

KW looks fine at this point. This is not a Katrina-type of situation.

[jhamps10]

Dennis - CAT 4
Emily - CAT 4
Katrina - CAT 5
Rita - CAT 3 (CAT 4 very possible)

Umm no offense, Rita's not a CAT 3 yet. Still a CAT 2 at 100 MPH. But the Gulf has not seen 4 major hurricanes in 1 season ever that I know of. May be wrong here, but I think this is correct

[Florida_TSR]

And how is this not a Katrina situation? Correct me if I'm wrong but Katrina had hot water with a strong high pressure over her. Rita has very warm water with an extremely strong ridge in place. The pressue is down to 976 and continues to drop.

[ColdWaterConch]

And how is this not a Katrina situation? Correct me if I'm wrong but Katrina had hot water with a strong high pressure over her. Rita had very warm water with an extremely strong ridge in place. The pressue is down to 976 and continues to drop.

I was referring to KW and storm surge.