Politics with the Black line?

[HouTXmetro]

Do you all think the NHC may purposley move the black dotted line around to get peoples attention so they won't be complacent just in case the storm does hit there?

[Roxy]

yes I do.

I think it's called, CYA.

[jax]

i have been saying that for years...

the black line likes the bigger cities...

[HouTXmetro]

i have been saying that for years...

the black line likes the bigger cities...

Hmmm... It kinda makes sense to me. Despite numerous warnings, people will still only pay attention to the black line.

[inotherwords]

I kind of get the feeling they'd like to remove the black line altogether.

[Roxy]

I kind of get the feeling they'd like to remove the black line altogether.

I do too, in fact I noticed The Weather Channel doesn't even use a line anymore...just a cone.

[Brent]

They should have a cone with the forecast points... no more lines.

[djtil]

if the black line didnt correlate so nicely with the middle of the ukmet and gfdl in most cases i might buy into this conspiracy....but in reality...the black line is not much more than a split the difference of the reliable models.

now maybe the conspiracy runs deeper than we all can imagine and is actually built into the models..

the truth is out there.

[Derecho]

if the black line didnt correlate so nicely with the middle of the ukmet and gfdl in most cases i might buy into this conspiracy

Actually the majority of the time it's basically identical or very near the GUNA or CONU consensus model track.

The idea of a conspiracy is a complete crock.

There are considerations other than the models, such as the "path of least regret" issue with Floyd. The models showed it turning barely offshore, but they kept the forecast track on the left edge of the envelope so people didn't get complacent.

But it's not deliberately "waved around"...if anything they bend over backwards not to move the track quickly. And they certainly don't try to put it over major cities.

[RichG]

Derecho

I think you just proved the point. If they did as you say with Floyd then they do in fact do so. My perspective from experience is that they absolutly do and Floyd being one of the best examples.

[dwg71]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... etype=move

here's a great example. Cone from La to Mexico, line doesnt go in the middle it goes straight to Galveston.

[djtil]

of course inaccuweather is all about hype.......the nhc track has the line down the middle of the cone.

not that i think a true cone of error would necessarily have to be symetrical......and i would have a very small right extent of my cone in this instance.

[soonertwister]

There was a big discussion of this subject about the line last year, after a hurricane headed toward Tampa made a slight veer to the right and struck completely shocked residents who were not expecting to get hit.

They had been staring at the line, but they were well within the cone. The line is there to give you a general indication of the NHC's best guess. But the cone is to let you know that if you are in it and don't prepare, don't say you weren't warned.

Because you were.

[NastyCat4]

So, get rid of the black line, and the cone would tell people to be vigilant---you're in the cone, you may get hit.

[SkeetoBite]

of course inaccuweather is all about hype.......the nhc track has the line down the middle of the cone.

not that i think a true cone of error would necessarily have to be symetrical......and i would have a very small right extent of my cone in this instance.

Uh... Regarding the NHC: 1)The cone is built around the line, not the other way around. 2)The cone is always exactly symetrical with regard to the forecast plots that create the "line" The cone of error is draw automatically by a computer program based on historical forecast errors in nautical miles from the forecast plot at that point in time.

Somewhere on the NHC website is the formula used for the cone. I believe they are using the average error for the past 10 years for the 2005 cone. If I find the reference, I'll post it here.

It appears that the AccuWeather "cone thing" they use is drawn by hand or at least manipulated manually in some way.

[tndefender]

Instead of a black line or cone how about a giant fist

[inotherwords]

Instead of a black line or cone how about a giant fist

Or a big middle finger.

[mtm4319]

There are considerations other than the models, such as the "path of least regret" issue with Floyd. The models showed it turning barely offshore, but they kept the forecast track on the left edge of the envelope so people didn't get complacent.

Does anyone have a picture of this NHC cone they had with Floyd? That would be interesting to look at.

(Did they even have a cone then?)

[gatorcane]

the line has nothing to do with a "city's" location. The NHC is not trying to alarm anybody. It's all based on probability

[soonertwister]

The cone is absolutely not drawn symmetrically around the projected path, it has to do with probabilities of hurricane impact.

To assert that the cone is merely some computer calculation of distances to each side of the center of the hurricane's path is an insult to the intelligence of those people who are working for us.

Yes, working to save lives. Show some respect for what they do. I've seen asymmetrical "cones" around projected tracks more times than I can count.