Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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skysummit
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#101 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:45 pm

djtil wrote:you said "forget about the models".......i believe that the main implication here was a "what if" scenario in that all the models were incorrect.....and we have no other authority. i was pointing out that this is not the case.....to you...personally.


Ok, where does the NHC primarily stick their track? Right with the consensus of the models. The NHC has done an outstanding job this season. I was just wonder what else was your reasoning and you told me. Good enough.

To be honest, I hope this slowing does mean a change in direction...to the SW. That way Texas escapes it also. I feel sorry for Mexico, but I believe they're a little less populated than the mainland US?
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#102 Postby djtil » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:49 pm

yes..they do end up in the middle of the models...but i would say moreso towards the end of the forecast.....the current/very short term forecasts i think definitely use more real time analysis.

didnt mean to give you the feeling i was attacking personally..sorry....my main point is that there is no way the nhc could miss such a short term scenario of a disappearing ridge and instantaneous turn to the north......with or without models to help them.
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#103 Postby inotherwords » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:50 pm

Getting very dark here and I've just heard my first thunder of the day. Heavily overcast since noon. Winds not very brisk at all, though, surprisingly. Just occasional gusts. Looks like we have a band getting ready to move through.
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#104 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:52 pm

djtil wrote:yes..they do end up in the middle of the models...but i would say moreso towards the end of the forecast.....the current/very short term forecasts i think definitely use more real time analysis.

didnt mean to give you the feeling i was attacking personally..sorry....my main point is that there is no way the nhc could miss such a short term scenario of a disappearing ridge and instantaneous turn to the north......with or without models to help them.


Ok...we're cool :D Thanks for clarification.
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#105 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:53 pm

Storms can make turns seemingly out of the blue - remember what Katrina did here in S. FL. Granted, she was still within the cone of error, but the shift to the SW was not forecast or expected. At this time, as of the 11am advisory, there is room for her to be north or south of her current position and still in the cone. That's why it's a cone of error, and not an exact track. I agree that the NHC is very good at what they do, and Rita is most likely repositioning or something, but there's always a chance that she can shift and surprise us. Storms do that sometimes. :wink:
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#106 Postby lisa0825 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:53 pm

To be honest, I hope this slowing does mean a change in direction...to the SW. That way Texas escapes it also. I feel sorry for Mexico, but I believe they're a little less populated than the mainland US?


Northeastern Mexico is not very populated. There are a few cities, but the majority of the coast is very sparsely populated from Tampico on up to Matamoros.
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#107 Postby djtil » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:56 pm

the shift to the SW was not forecast or expected.


the funny part about this was that the nhc actually tried to outthink the models which insisted on a sw motion.......they were discounted.
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#108 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:58 pm

Interesting dj....we were out of town when Kat came through here so I was not able to see the models on S2K...I could only rely on the cones I received on my phone. Didn't know the models were showing it.
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#109 Postby djtil » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:03 pm

im trying to find it..but if i remember right the ukmet started the sw shift and the gfdl grabbed onto it also.....
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#110 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:04 pm

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#111 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:18 pm

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#112 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:58 pm

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#113 Postby Coredesat » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:07 pm

Hmm...

2 PM: 23.4N 81.7W
5 PM: 24.0N 82.2W

That's not west.
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#114 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:10 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Hmm...

2 PM: 23.4N 81.7W
5 PM: 24.0N 82.2W

That's not west.


Wrong.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

THAT is west.
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#115 Postby truballer#1 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:10 pm

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#116 Postby Dave C » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:18 pm

Also, a storm doesn't have to be moving 270 deg. to be considered west. If it were moving 280 or 285 as well as 260 or 265 it would still be considered west.
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#117 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:23 pm

Western eyewall building.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... owlabels=1
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#118 Postby azskyman » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:46 pm

Oops. Sorry for the duplicate post!
Last edited by azskyman on Tue Sep 20, 2005 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#119 Postby azskyman » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:46 pm

Still too early to determine how much more north of west that Rita will turn before making landfall, but one of the concerns I heard was that a tidal surge of 4-6 feet plus rainfall of 3" or more in a 6-hour period on the affected areas of New Orleans might be enough to weaken the levy walls and cause more flooding.

A hurricane Rita that enters from the southeast to the northwest into Texas could have a significant rain and surge well west of her center and cause those kinds of numbers to occur.

I heard those at noon today while someone (not sure who) was being interviewed by ABC News.

NO doesn't need a direct hit to have all kinds of problems. Landfall well west, if combined with surge and heavy convection on the northeast quadrant could be just as much trouble.

All eyes on Rita tomorrow, that's for sure!
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#120 Postby Meso » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:59 pm

More pressure drops... I am out for the next 10 hours or so... Wonder what suprise Rita is going to give when I awake.
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