Has Rita slowed? Significance?

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feederband
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#21 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:50 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Could it be just a wobble or that she is repositioning herself?



HMMMMMMM??????
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cajungal
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#22 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:55 pm

We will just have to keep watching and wait for the next advisory to see if she slowed. Because slowing will be bad news because it will bring SW Louisiana back into play. Because the slower she goes, it will give the High time to turn east and bring her north. Timing is everything. 2 of the models shifted just a tad east at 2 p.m. to Beaumont. Not that big of a deal for us on the Louisiana coast. But, we will just have to see if the trend continues. My dad gave me the new nickname Nash Roberts. :D
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#23 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:56 pm

loon wrote:You stick with your thoughts, I'll stick with mine. I say radar is not good as you have no way for a real center fix. Sat is just as bad with no eye to focus on. I will wait for Vortex fix and then let them decide for me. I have no doubt it could have slowed, however she is changing overall shape and to say for sure an exact amount she slowed, I think is a hard call. But, have your crow or look like an internet board hero for 10 minutes, either way is fine with me

=]


But Loon what do you think the NHC uses in luew of flights.Sat pics.
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#24 Postby loon » Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:59 pm

I don't believe that have exact numbers until recon starts going in. Would you notice if she was moving at 15mph vs 13mph coming off the CV? I doubt it. And they say themselves, winds, speed, and position is "estimated" not "exact" which was my only concern with this entire thread.

edit: I could be wrong, maybe putting a ruler up on your monitor on a tilted radar image or on a 1km res sat image is all it takes..I just had a higher respect for the met profession, and imagined they had a few tools we don't have access to...sorry
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#25 Postby rainstorm » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:09 pm

i cant find a radar loop of her
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#26 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:11 pm

rainstorm wrote:i cant find a radar loop of her

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kbyx.shtml
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#27 Postby chrisnnavarre » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:12 pm

All Engines Back One Third... Right Standard Rudder.... I don't like Texas in September.

One word.... Climatology....

:wink:
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#28 Postby hicksta » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:13 pm

cajungal wrote:We will just have to keep watching and wait for the next advisory to see if she slowed. Because slowing will be bad news because it will bring SW Louisiana back into play. Because the slower she goes, it will give the High time to turn east and bring her north. Timing is everything. 2 of the models shifted just a tad east at 2 p.m. to Beaumont. Not that big of a deal for us on the Louisiana coast. But, we will just have to see if the trend continues. My dad gave me the new nickname Nash Roberts. :D


what models
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#29 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:15 pm

hicksta wrote:
cajungal wrote:We will just have to keep watching and wait for the next advisory to see if she slowed. Because slowing will be bad news because it will bring SW Louisiana back into play. Because the slower she goes, it will give the High time to turn east and bring her north. Timing is everything. 2 of the models shifted just a tad east at 2 p.m. to Beaumont. Not that big of a deal for us on the Louisiana coast. But, we will just have to see if the trend continues. My dad gave me the new nickname Nash Roberts. :D


what models
Go to http://www.wunderground.com I never can remember the names of all the models.
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#30 Postby loon » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:15 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:All Engines Back One Third... Right Standard Rudder.... I don't like Texas in September.

One word.... Climatology....

:wink:


I have thought about this myself...should be interesting.
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#31 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:19 pm

GFS and BAMM shifted ever so slightly east.
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#32 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:19 pm

Using super scientific methods I put a piece of of paper on the bottom of the eyewall while it was in a radar loop it looks like it pulled nnw a little...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml
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#33 Postby BayouVenteux » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:19 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:All Engines Back One Third... Right Standard Rudder.... I don't like Texas in September.

One word.... Climatology....

:wink:


Climatology...like no major hurricanes in the Caribbean and Gulf in early July?

That book got tossed out the window on its tush months ago. :wink:
Last edited by BayouVenteux on Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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#34 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:19 pm

According to my fixes using GRLevel 3, she is moving 280 degrees at 10MPH.
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#35 Postby chrisnnavarre » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:19 pm

loon wrote:
chrisnnavarre wrote:All Engines Back One Third... Right Standard Rudder.... I don't like Texas in September.

One word.... Climatology....

:wink:


I have thought about this myself...should be interesting.


If it hits us I'm in for it...if it hits you in Galveston I'm still in for it...

I have to drive 38 miles one-way to work everyday.

:x
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#36 Postby raynpa » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:21 pm

Once again if this hurricane visits Texas...this will be a first....This time of the year, coming from the straits of Florida!
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#37 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:24 pm

First time for everything. If it does hit Texas, that means that every one of the gulf states got impacted this hurricane season. Not meaning your exact town, but just part of the state in general.
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feederband
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#38 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:26 pm

raynpa wrote:Once again if this hurricane visits Texas...this will be a first....This time of the year, coming from the straits of Florida!



The cane Gods are trying to spread out the devastaion this year.... :(
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#39 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:28 pm

In regard to speed, its moved 0N and 1.3W since 2PM advisory. I don't know how to convert that into knots. 1.3W in 2.5 hours. Anyone? Anyone?
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#40 Postby loon » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:36 pm

http://pollux.nss.nima.mil/calc/degree.html

According to that, 1.3 degrees would be 24mph but I know thats not right, so maybe if you could figure out how to add the data...
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