Bam joins Ukmet and gfs in northern shift

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

i know ivanhater real good because we are in the same met class. we talked about this thing today and we are thinking about western LA. We are just waiting for the HP above us to move, which it looks like to be doing now, just slowly. The pressure here in mobile is starting to drop at a decent rate now, and changing from what it has been while the HP was here

[Brent]

Ok, whatever. I really don't have time for this anyway. It's not like this is a contest where we will have a winner. I have more to lose than someone in Memphis, so yeah I want it to come this way. Does that sound better to you.

Well at least you admit it...

[jkt21787]

What a whiner...

But, yet again, I am being attacked because of my location inland. I said once I would not stay if it continues, and I will remain true to that.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

I look at it, whether you are inland or not, you can be good at hurricanes if you study enough about it. you don't have to live on the coast to be a hurricane forecaster, you just know how it is to go through one

[deltadog03]

kevin, i know your good with weather...and specially canes....I made a mistake on the euro...it did shift slightly south...but, we will see in the end..i am more interested with the slowing down right now...

[NorthGaWeather]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

Hahaha. She's moving ever so slightly North of due west. Which would be gaining latitude. The speed has slowed some. Something tells me your trying to make your forecast verify and not looking at the big picture.

[dwg71]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

Hahaha. She's moving ever so slightly North of due west. Which would be gaining latitude. The speed has slowed some. Something tells me your trying to make your forecast verify and not looking at the big picture.

Did you look at the last three recon fixes...23 and 49minutes, then 23 and 47 minutes and then 23 and 46 minutes... See the trend. See the facts. My forecast was shot 2 days ago, so I'm not in this to win a contest.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

By looking at zoomed in satellite, there is no southerly movement. it is moving west if not barley north of west

[NorthGaWeather]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

Hahaha. She's moving ever so slightly North of due west. Which would be gaining latitude. The speed has slowed some. Something tells me your trying to make your forecast verify and not looking at the big picture.

Did you look at the last three recon fixes...23 and 49minutes, then 23 and 47 minutes and then 23 and 46 minutes... See the trend. See the facts. My forecast was shot 2 days ago, so I'm not in this to win a contest.

Ok. Looks like the NHC agrees with me however. You know they are the pros at this type of stuff. 23.9 at 2pm over 23.8 at 11am.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

ukmet now near nhc track, before it was well south near south texas

You forgot to mention the GFDL's southern shift. Also, forgot to mention that latest recon fix is 23.77N but NHC has it at 23.9N. So the ridge is not allowing Rita to gain any lattitude. Combine that with her forward speed and you get a track further south.

You have to look at the full picture.

Hahaha. She's moving ever so slightly North of due west. Which would be gaining latitude. The speed has slowed some. Something tells me your trying to make your forecast verify and not looking at the big picture.

Did you look at the last three recon fixes...23 and 49minutes, then 23 and 47 minutes and then 23 and 46 minutes... See the trend. See the facts. My forecast was shot 2 days ago, so I'm not in this to win a contest.

Ok. Looks like the NHC agrees with me however. You know they are the pros at this type of stuff. 23.9 at 2pm over 23.8 at 11am.

t

that is a fact i can believe

[Ivanhater]

well i just got out of class and look at this thread!! haaaaaa

[Ivanhater]

bam has shifted way north and now joins the ukmet and gfs in the northern shift, i have no clue why some are calling for a southern shift

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

bam has shifted way north and now joins the ukmet and gfs in the northern shift, i have no clue why some are calling for a southern shift

your right mike. i am still gonna stick with western LA for now.

[jasons2k]

According to GRLevel 3 she is moving 280 degrees @ 10mph. Just north of west.

[dwg71]

Current recon fix: 23.85N and 82.95W...

[Ivanhater]

According to GRLevel 3 she is moving 280 degrees @ 10mph. Just north of west.

thanks js, keep us posted on this, i love you radar analysis

[Ivanhater]

According to GRLevel 3 she is moving 280 degrees @ 10mph. Just north of west.

thanks js, keep us posted on this, i love you radar analysis

[deltadog03]

yeah, great work JS....and yes, its slowed

[dwg71]

yeah, great work JS....and yes, its slowed

Based on what? I cant figure out speed from 1.3W in 2.5 hours, any help?

[LarryWx]

Ok, 12Z EURO has shifted slightly north as well!!!!! NORTH..its now right around galveston.....

There's another thread on this, and actually this is a SOUTH shift.

Yes, Perry confirms this is 75 miles SW or so of previous position.

No, Larry said this. Not that there's anything bad about being mistaken for a great fellow GA poster, but I insist that I'm Larry not Perry.

Someone else here recently made the same mistake.