When are the next model runs expected
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the models wont move much, unless HP stays in control over TX, then you will see a shift south. If it moves out fast, then you will see a shift north. The models that matter at this point (IMO) are the UKMET, the NOGAPS, the GFDL, and the ERUO. I put no faith in GFS, LBAR, or any of the BAMS.
We are 72-84 hours out, time will tell.
We are 72-84 hours out, time will tell.
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KEEP THESE TIMES IN MIND...
This is all Central Time...
7 pm (0z)
7 am (12)
These are the times the models "initialize" or make out the current surface analysis of that time. Afterword, they begin producing their output, the maps you see. Some models take a short time to run, others take a while longer. The tropical models always hit in the 7 o'clock hour, the GFS is usually around 9 PM or after (depending on the time of concern) and the globals usually are thereafter (oftentime at Midnight or later)
Take these times and extrapolate for 7 am, and thats how the 12z models will stack out.
Many models also do "intermediate" runs at 6z (1 am) and 18z (1 pm). Not all models run intermediately, most of the globals don't. Those that do, however, are not considered complete because it doesn't contain a full suite of data, so they are generally given less credibility than the 0z and 12z run.
This is all Central Time...
7 pm (0z)
7 am (12)
These are the times the models "initialize" or make out the current surface analysis of that time. Afterword, they begin producing their output, the maps you see. Some models take a short time to run, others take a while longer. The tropical models always hit in the 7 o'clock hour, the GFS is usually around 9 PM or after (depending on the time of concern) and the globals usually are thereafter (oftentime at Midnight or later)
Take these times and extrapolate for 7 am, and thats how the 12z models will stack out.
Many models also do "intermediate" runs at 6z (1 am) and 18z (1 pm). Not all models run intermediately, most of the globals don't. Those that do, however, are not considered complete because it doesn't contain a full suite of data, so they are generally given less credibility than the 0z and 12z run.
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