Has Rita slowed? Significance?

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windnrain
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#41 Postby windnrain » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:46 pm

Someone said that it's moving at 7 knots.. around 8 mph right now in the recon thread.
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Javlin
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#42 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:46 pm

dwg71 wrote:In regard to speed, its moved 0N and 1.3W since 2PM advisory. I don't know how to convert that into knots. 1.3W in 2.5 hours. Anyone? Anyone?


I am figuring about 24'N and 82'W on the 1945UTC sat at GHCC.That's about .1N and .3W.That works out yo roughly 20miles since the last cors. about 6 miles an hr.One must remember though that the NHC does an avg over the last 6-9 hrs.
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#43 Postby loon » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:49 pm

Well, I guess we have some 10 minute heros =] Congrats on the call. Now...slowing because of turning or slowing because of center rewrapping and getting ready to blow?
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#44 Postby NorthGaWeather » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:49 pm

dwg71 wrote:In regard to speed, its moved 0N and 1.3W since 2PM advisory. I don't know how to convert that into knots. 1.3W in 2.5 hours. Anyone? Anyone?


What? Please tell me you meant 0.3 in 2.5 hrs. Cause it hasn't moved 1.3 since 2pm.

2pm- 81.7

Recon-81 deg 57min.
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#45 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:51 pm

Javlin wrote:
dwg71 wrote:In regard to speed, its moved 0N and 1.3W since 2PM advisory. I don't know how to convert that into knots. 1.3W in 2.5 hours. Anyone? Anyone?


I am figuring about 24'N and 82'W on the 1945UTC sat at GHCC.That's about .1N and .3W.That works out yo roughly 20miles since the last cors. about 6 miles an hr.One must remember though that the NHC does an avg over the last 6-9 hrs.


I misread Vortex, it had center at 23.85 and 81.95, so roughly .3W in 2.5 hours.

which would equal 3 W in 25 Hours or 12W in 100 hours, that is slower.
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#46 Postby BamaMan » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:53 pm

loon wrote:Well, I guess we have some 10 minute heros =] Congrats on the call. Now...slowing because of turning or slowing because of center rewrapping and getting ready to blow?

Hey loon . . . . Just chill a little Bro. Everyone's just offering their opinions, and nothing more
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#47 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:59 pm

loon wrote:Well, I guess we have some 10 minute heros =] Congrats on the call. Now...slowing because of turning or slowing because of center rewrapping and getting ready to blow?


That Loon is the $64 question.I would usually think lack of steering currents in the strength in the ridge or a temporary change in direction for a few hrs.I still think she is eventually TX bound.Also no land to N maybe the land friction idea?I think it will be short lived though maybe some stairstepping.
Last edited by Javlin on Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#48 Postby stormspotter » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:00 pm

5PM DISCUSSION SAYS W 13KTS
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#49 Postby BamaMan » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:04 pm

Will be interesting to see where she crosses Lat 25.0. NHC says at Long 91.5. We will see
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#50 Postby mvtrucking » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:08 pm

dwg71 wrote:In regard to speed, its moved 0N and 1.3W since 2PM advisory. I don't know how to convert that into knots. 1.3W in 2.5 hours. Anyone? Anyone?


15 mph.(I didn't figure it out I just looked at the NHC 5pm advisory :D
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#51 Postby MGC » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:08 pm

Radar is an excellent method of tracking a hurricane when the storm is so close to the radar as Rita is. Rita does appear to have slowed and taken a NW jog. I believe this is nothing more than temporary and not a track shift. Interesting to note that the pressure is down 5mb since the 2pm update........MGC
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#52 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:09 pm

MGC wrote:Radar is an excellent method of tracking a hurricane when the storm is so close to the radar as Rita is. Rita does appear to have slowed and taken a NW jog. I believe this is nothing more than temporary and not a track shift. Interesting to note that the pressure is down 5mb since the 2pm update........MGC


Is it at 971 now?
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#53 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:10 pm

1sq + 5sq = 26 then sq.root of 26 =5.1 5.1x6=30.6 miles/3hrs =10.2mph.The next set of numbers may reflect this if the trend continues as I said it's an average over the last 6-9 hrs.
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#54 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:10 pm

They still got her going at 15 mph at the 5 p.m. advisory. She has NOT slowed down at all. And it still looks due west to me. Probably just a wobble. Storms never move in straight lines.
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#55 Postby tampastorm » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:12 pm

according to Tropical Underground already north of next forecast point.
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#56 Postby TampaFl » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:57 pm

Check out this 24 hour WV loop and look at the digging trough over the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast US. Also notice over Texas the upper level high appears to be moving nw. Could this trough have an affect on Rita's possible slow down and "possible" nw jog?? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wv48rgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv
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#57 Postby TampaFl » Tue Sep 20, 2005 4:58 pm

Check out this 24 hour WV loop and look at the digging trough over the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast US. Also notice over Texas the upper level high appears to be moving nw. Could this trough have an affect on Rita's possible slow down and "possible" nw jog?? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wv48rgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv
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#58 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:47 pm

It might of Robert at one time earlier today clouds definitly looking E to W now.Almost with a touch of S hint.She has slowed down even further .4 W that 24 miles in 3hrs thats getting slow.
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#59 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:50 pm

If it jogged NW it's probably because it's going through some strengthening wobbles. :eek:
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#60 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:03 pm

One of our mets is getting a little more concerned tonight. 2 models that ran at 8 p.m www. wunderground.com shifted to the TX/LA border. SW LA/Central LA need to play close attention as well as of course Texas.
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