If you thought Katrina was bad.....

[LAwxrgal]

The potential scenario unfolding unfortunately IS nuts. Another monster cane 3 weeks after the last one???

[HollynLA]

Yeah but what we call "major" or "monster" hurricanes are becoming more of the norm. Scary to think of it like that but it's true.

[jasons2k]

It'd be much easier to "calm down" if she hadn't gone from a TS to now 970mb, a borderline Cat 2/3 in a matter of hours, and my best friend hadn't just closed in his house on the Galveston West End just a few weeks ago.

And I just moved into mine June 1.

And there's nothing in the forecast that would cause her to weaken. The GOM west of 90W and north of 25N is virtually untouched.

Yeah, real calm right now.

[THead]

Guys, lets not overeact here. This thing is jus tgetting fired up and we have no idea where it's going right now. For all we know it may take a southern turn to Mexico.

Just calm down.

Yeah, its really hard to imagine that anything like Katrina could happen again on another big population area. I know its possible, and even more possible as Rita churns into the Gulf......I really can't believe this is happening.

[MGC]

The potential exists for another disaster of unbelivable proportions is Rita hit the right spot at the right intensity. Rita currently has a large eye, on the order of 30 miles and a large wind field simular to Katrina. Don't think the surge will be as bad in Texas as it was along the Mississippi coast though......MGC

[HurryKane]

you can spell Rita out of Katrina

And when you use the leftover letters, it's...

RITA KAN. I would add, RITA KAN do some damage if she tries.

[smashmode]

You aint seen nothing yet if this hits just to the south of Galveston as a Cat 4 or Cat 5 similar to Katrina with a large wind fieldand then hits the Houston metro area.

You'll get horrific storm surge along the coast to equal the devestation of Mississippi with the additional of extensive wind damage in a metro area of 3 million + or 3 times the size of New Orleans.

Could you only imagine how the government would react with a million or two homeless people at this point? They don't have the resources. People will starve again.

Not to mention the refineries.

If we lose those refineries...the nation is SOL

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

Any plans to evacuate Houston yet?

[soonertwister]

A high-end direct Galveston hit would be catastrophic, but that's still pretty unlikely right now. Much more possible than it was a week ago, but still up in the air. Now, if this storm is a Cat 5 two days from landfall and is headed towards Galveston, then it's safe to hit the "OMFG Panic!" button like we did for Katrina.

It's unlikely that this storm will be as devastating as Katrina, but it's certainly possible.

In't not only possible, it's very possible. And to say that it's pretty unlikely that Galveston would get a direct hit is not true. It's not a 50% chance, but it is more than 20%, and that's extremely serious. Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

I've been there, I've seen the surge maps. Either you are in a state of denial, or you are fantasizing that what you are saying is correct. We could be under 84 hours to landfall, and people have been saying wait until we are only 2-3 days out, things will change. With high convergence of the reliable forecasting models, we know one thing for certain: the Houston-Galveston metro area is in acute danger right now.

[timNms]

You aint seen nothing yet if this hits just to the south of Galveston as a Cat 4 or Cat 5 similar to Katrina with a large wind fieldand then hits the Houston metro area.

You'll get horrific storm surge along the coast to equal the devestation of Mississippi with the additional of extensive wind damage in a metro area of 3 million + or 3 times the size of New Orleans.

Could you only imagine how the government would react with a million or two homeless people at this point? They don't have the resources. People will starve again.

Somebody on storm2k said that we may not think one will ever pass Katrina, but someday one mightmake Katrina look like a baby. Well, this might come true with Rita .

Some of us in Mississippi never thought we'd see a storm surge worse than the one Camille brought in 1969. We were wrong! Katrina brought a monster surge along the Mississippi coast.

What have we had this season....2 or 3 cat 5's? Anything is possible. We didn't think Emily would break Dennis's records, but she did, didn't she? Rita could do the same if conditions are just right. (questions because I"m not sure if my info is correct)

My advice to the people in Rita's path is to listen to your local officials. If they order an evacuation, heed the warning and get out!

[soonertwister]

The potential exists for another disaster of unbelivable proportions is Rita hit the right spot at the right intensity. Rita currently has a large eye, on the order of 30 miles and a large wind field simular to Katrina. Don't think the surge will be as bad in Texas as it was along the Mississippi coast though......MGC

Actually, the surge will be as bad, if not worse. I've done the research. Just because Mississippi has been hit by two catastrophic canes while Texas hasn't seen a really bad one since Carla, it doesn't mean the risk isn't there. The natural curvature of the coast along with the shallow continental shelf means that surge can and will be extreme if a very strong hurricane comes in anywhere close to the west of the Houston-Galveston metro area.

[jopatura]

Our weather guy just said that if the storm hits at the forecasted time (2am Saturday morning) it'll come in with the high tide (2:47 am on Saturday). So this could get really really ugly.

[jburns]

Something tells me the "Don't mess with Texas" state -- the only state in the country that still declares in their constitutiuon their right to ceceed from the union at any time -- won't be too keen on federalizing the National Guard. I think I'd almost be willing to wager money on that.

They wouldn't be federalizing it just loaning it out for awhile to a fellow Texan.

[jimbo]

Something tells me the "Don't mess with Texas" state -- the only state in the country that still declares in their constitutiuon their right to ceceed from the union at any time -- won't be too keen on federalizing the National Guard. I think I'd almost be willing to wager money on that.

They wouldn't be federalizing it just loaning it out for awhile to a fellow Texan.

While Texas is a 'bit' larger than Louisians, Mississippi, and Alabama, our Govenor probably realizes at this point that only the Feds have the manpower to handle a situtation like this. A lesson learned in NO to be sure, at many folks expense.

[arcticfire]

Tis a true shame that my state of birth is likly to get hit even after all the good hearted stuff they did for Katrina victoms. Still , while it certainly could be a really really bad hit to the oil industry in that area. I have faith that the humanitarian disaster would be much more temepred then in LA. Texans are tough no nonsence folks , I think they will weather the storm well.

As to the comment a few posts back being that we won't see something like Katrina , nor our kids , I submit to you that sea levels are rising , every inch the sea rises is that much less protection the coastal / near coast cities have. If we continue to build at the rate we have been , it's inevitable really that even more costly storms will strike in the future just because the ocean incrouchment + continued urban sprawl.

[Hfcomms]

Wont happen logy! If it hits I can assure you the governor will ask for federal assistance immediately and not worry about allowing Federal Control. Also, Texas will likely have National Gaurd prepositioned to move in and not on call like La.

One think ya'll need to remember and your elected bureaucrats don't generally tell you except when they are powerless is that the government is not GOD. Federal assistance....what federal assistance. There is a limit to what any government federal, state, local can do.

With this nation already pushing bankruptcy and the east half of the gulf coast a disaster area and our military and equipment spread over the whole earth where is all this "assistance" coming from that's going to rise and save the day??

One lesson that everyone should have learned from Katrina is that when the fecal matter hits the rapidly oscillating blade you are on your own for a considerable period of time with whatever preperations you had the foresight to acquire Once the panic of this thing starts to hit about this time tomorrow night the stores will be cleaned out and people will start to loose it.

Face the facts...this thing will not curve off into mexico and there is nothing to make it weaken. It's going to come straight down the barrel and smash the hopes and dreams of millions of people. Many insurances companies already are going to be bankrupt after Katrina...what's going to be left to bail you out.

Sorry to be so dire but many are going to be in a world of hurt and for a lot of you the clock is ticking and you have 72 hours or so before your world changes forever. Get your life right with God if it's not already and take concrete steps Now to get yourself out of harms way before everyone else gets the idea at the same time. You want to be where everyone else isn't. Or the situation you have seen on TV about the Katrina victims will be your situation only probably worse because the dirty little secret is the government is about out of resources to handle this stuff.

[jax]

Tis a true shame that my state of birth is likly to get hit even after all the good hearted stuff they did for Katrina victoms. Still , while it certainly could be a really really bad hit to the oil industry in that area. I have faith that the humanitarian disaster would be much more temepred then in LA. Texans are tough no nonsence folks , I think they will weather the storm well.

As to the comment a few posts back being that we won't see something like Katrina , nor our kids , I submit to you that sea levels are rising , every inch the sea rises is that much less protection the coastal / near coast cities have. If we continue to build at the rate we have been , it's inevitable really that even more costly storms will strike in the future just because the ocean incrouchment + continued urban sprawl.

ummm who said sea levels are rising?

[Windy]

A high-end direct Galveston hit would be catastrophic, but that's still pretty unlikely right now. Much more possible than it was a week ago, but still up in the air. Now, if this storm is a Cat 5 two days from landfall and is headed towards Galveston, then it's safe to hit the "OMFG Panic!" button like we did for Katrina.

It's unlikely that this storm will be as devastating as Katrina, but it's certainly possible.

In't not only possible, it's very possible. And to say that it's pretty unlikely that Galveston would get a direct hit is not true. It's not a 50% chance, but it is more than 20%, and that's extremely serious.

Actually, the probability of Galveston getting hurricane force winds in the next five days is now listed as only 17%. Again, there are so many statistical products put out by the NHC that there is no need to guesstimate on something like strike probs.

Even if it hits some 50 miles down the coast, a category 4 Rita will absolutely devastate Galveston and the low-lying areas south and southeast of Houston.

True, and if Godzilla attacks before then, it'll be even worse. I guess all I'm saying is that it is A) definately not certain that the storm will landfall at Cat 4, and B) definately not certain that the eye will pass near Galveston, TX. Given the variables involved, while it is very prudent to obey all local authorities and evacuate the area when they say to (which is RIGHT NOW for those in the area who are reading), there is no reason for anyone to be certain that a natural cataclysm anywhere near the level of Katrina (as suggested earlier) is about to occur. Yes, if all the stars align just so, it could be very bad. But that can be said about a lot of hurricanes that are still three days out.

[Doc Seminole]

There are also some very poor neighborhoods very close to the Houston Ship Channel. I wonder if the storm would flood the 3rd and 5th wards, for example? A lot of those people might be stuck in their homes just like in N.O.

They need to be walking NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[arcticfire]

Tis a true shame that my state of birth is likly to get hit even after all the good hearted stuff they did for Katrina victoms. Still , while it certainly could be a really really bad hit to the oil industry in that area. I have faith that the humanitarian disaster would be much more temepred then in LA. Texans are tough no nonsence folks , I think they will weather the storm well.

As to the comment a few posts back being that we won't see something like Katrina , nor our kids , I submit to you that sea levels are rising , every inch the sea rises is that much less protection the coastal / near coast cities have. If we continue to build at the rate we have been , it's inevitable really that even more costly storms will strike in the future just because the ocean incrouchment + continued urban sprawl.

ummm who said sea levels are rising?

Ok here , this took all of 2 seconds of google to find :

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/space_geodesy/SEALEVEL/

If you want furthur information on sea level rise and how much it's projected to rise in the next century simply googling "sea level rise" will give you a hoard of information.