Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[EDR1222]

Hopefully Rita will not be as strong as forecasted where she comes a shore.

On a brighter note, the reports coming out of the Keys indicated there have been a few problems but things seem to be OK. I heard US 1 was washed over in a few areas north of Key West, and there are some power lines down with minor flooding, but the Keys drain pretty fast, so hopefully things will be ok.

[dwg71]

Latest vortex 23.9N and 82.4W, still moving west.

[MGC]

Looking at the latest radar out of Key West. Appears to be some hook echos in the eyewall. Could Rita be producing meso-vorties?....MGC

[PurdueWx80]

Looking at the latest radar out of Key West. Appears to be some hook echos in the eyewall. Could Rita be producing meso-vorties?....MGC

Was just thinking the same thing. Bet these vortices are causing localized cat3 winds now.

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like an eye is starting to show up on the IR loop.

[soonertwister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Looks like an eye is starting to show up on the IR loop.

Yep. I't been my observation that clear eyes usually don't appear on young hurricanes until they reach about category 3 strength. They just don't seem to have enough rotational inertia to clear out the CDO before then.

Once Rita clears her throat, there's not a lot out there to disrupt her strength. The biggest question is whether or not she can collect enough sustained heat energy to get above the projected 115 knot maximum speed. As I was with Katrina regarding the conservative wind forecasts, I'm not optimistic. The problem is that there aren't any significant outside influences working on Rita, and as she enlarges her areal coverage and achieves almost perfect symmetry, she self-insulates against dry air entrainment.

So then you've eliminated the threat of dry air and shear. And with no current threat of a frontal interaction, I hate to say it, but I can't see anything that will stop her from becoming a category 5 hurricane. There is less available cold water at depth than there was for Katrina, and this hurricane is moving faster, reducing the amount of upwelling influence.

If Rita reached 170 knots sustained winds, I wouldn't be surprised. The conditions in the last month in the Gulf have been almost perfect for severe hurricanes.

[Scorpion]

I agree sooner. People are saying no to Cat 5 just because we had Katrina last month. Rita is hitting an area of untouched water. Just watch her explode into a WPAC-like hurricane.

[skysummit]

If Rita reached 170 knots sustained winds, I wouldn't be surprised. The conditions in the last month in the Gulf have been almost perfect for severe hurricanes.

170 KNOTS??? Come on.....that's 196mph!

[Scorpion]

Its the upper limits of intensity but its possible. I doubt it, but 150 kts is definitely possible.

[Brent]

170 knots??? Are you serious???

[mtm4319]

The problem is that there aren't any significant outside influences working on Rita, and as she enlarges her areal coverage and achieves almost perfect symmetry, she self-insulates against dry air entrainment.

Katrina had dry air in it just before landfall.

[skysummit]

It looks like that high has finally stopped retreating westward and has started a north motion? Anyone else see it?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[cajungal]

Still looks due west to me. I don't really see it.

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like that high has finally stopped retreating westward and has started a north motion? Anyone else see it?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

I just don't see it yet.

[skysummit]

She's really beginning to show her eye now. Look at the latest IR.

[arcticfire]

Looking at the last visible shots of the day , it looks like she is expanding in leaps and bounds on the west side. From what i could see there was a large band of really tall tops (cast a shadow on the storm) , but more then that the whole storm apears to have grown in size signifigently.

[Brent]

105 mph at 8pm... I would say if the trend continues it will be a major before morning.

[krysof]

little bit stronger now, 105 mph

[Derek Ortt]

the globals, as indicated by the NHc discussion, are showing a typhoon in the GOM, not a hurricane as the cyclonic circulation in the models extends very far to the north

[Galvestongirl]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.