Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Yes...

and Galveston will see a lot more than a "little" wind if it follows the NHC track. Tornadoes, hurricane force winds(at least in gusts, sustained if it's a large circulation), surge, torrential rain, and flooding. Not a place I would want to be.

[SoupBone]

Quick question guys....She has slowed down to 12mph now. At what point do we need to worry about this thing in Louisiana? Does she have to slow to say 7-8mph before we should be concerned about it? I always thought that unless it's a significant slowing then we shouldn't worry too much. She was 14-15mph today so she has slowed a few mph.

[Brent]

the globals, as indicated by the NHc discussion, are showing a typhoon in the GOM, not a hurricane as the cyclonic circulation in the models extends very far to the north

A large hurricane??? Larger than Katrina?

[southerngale]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Aren't you under a mandatory evacuation?

[krysof]

she is looking better and better everytime I see her on infared, eye is really starting to develop, I say major by morning pretty likely, then staying at that 115mph intensity as an ERC may occur by late tomorrow

[Brent]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Aren't you under a mandatory evacuation?

I was just thinking the same thing.

Galveston is the LAST place I'd want to be(except maybe New Orleans or the Keys) for a major hurricane... you shouldn't focus on the black line on the NHC track... your in the cone and very likely will have a major hurricane landfalling not far from you... do not take chances.

[Galvestongirl]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Aren't you under a mandatory evacuation?

No, I live off the Island, but, go to UTMB school of nursing, They released us today at 5 for the mandantory evacs. I am midway between houston and galveston, in a town called dickinson.

[jasons2k]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Aren't you under a mandatory evacuation?

No, I live off the Island, but, go to UTMB school of nursing, They released us today at 5 for the mandantory evacs. I am midway between houston and galveston, in a town called dickinson.

If you are in Dickinson, you are part of the mandatory effective tomorrow. The whole county is. Leave.

[Dave C]

Take a look at water vapor of Gulf
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
Outflow really expanding west towards upper-low in western Gulf also, moist air is moving ahead of storms path.

[baitism]

Yikes! Heavy convection wrapping around to the western side.

[Brent]

Is this still predicted to go to matagorda? Not sure if I a going anywhere if it is going there, we will see a little wind and some rain, but not the brunt of the hurricane, I think anyway, it is a deciding factor on what I will do.

Aren't you under a mandatory evacuation?

No, I live off the Island, but, go to UTMB school of nursing, They released us today at 5 for the mandantory evacs. I am midway between houston and galveston, in a town called dickinson.

ZONE B – 2 AM Thursday, Sept. 22

Texas City (Hwy. 146)
La Marque (I-45)
Hitchcock (Hwy. 6)
Dickinson (I-45)

MANDATORY EVACUATION...

[Brent]

Take a look at water vapor of Gulf
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
Outflow really expanding west towards upper-low in western Gulf also, moist air is moving ahead of storms path.

Well those goes that one hope that dry air would help keep it in check.

[Thunder44]

You can see the large eye clearly on nightime visible satellite imagery:

[Scorpion]

the globals, as indicated by the NHc discussion, are showing a typhoon in the GOM, not a hurricane as the cyclonic circulation in the models extends very far to the north

So it can reach epic levels of intensity and size? Is that what the globals are saying?

[cajungal]

Quick question guys....She has slowed down to 12mph now. At what point do we need to worry about this thing in Louisiana? Does she have to slow to say 7-8mph before we should be concerned about it? I always thought that unless it's a significant slowing then we shouldn't worry too much. She was 14-15mph today so she has slowed a few mph.

I don't think that is a signifigant slow down. She would have to slow down way more than that. I would still monitor it especially if you live in SW LA over to Morgan City, LA. Because even though you might not get the eyewall, the effects will be widespread on the east side of the storm.

[Brent]

You can see the large eye clearly on nightime visible satellite imagery:

Dang... What a difference a few hours makes.

[Galvestongirl]

what is the link to the talk show that comes on?

[TS Zack]

Models have a circulation all the way up to the 200MB Level. WOW!

[jasons2k]

What's scary is that when I read the Annular thread last night, and again today, I thought no way it would happen. Looking at these new pics, and looking a the eye on radar, it looks like it may come to that.

The radar signatures remind me of Katrina.

[Scorpion]

Models have a circulation all the way up to the 200MB Level. WOW!

What exactly does that mean in terms of intensity?