Rita = MONSTER!

[coolwater]

Looking at the latest images, Rita looks like an absolute monster. Honestly, with nothing but warm waters ahead of her, this girl could go down in the history books. She is much more impressive than her sister Katrina at the same stage.

[HurricaneGirl]

Big Time! Looks like a Cat 3 already on the latest loops.

[MiamiensisWx]

Big Time! Looks like a Cat 3 already on the latest loops.

I agree very much... 967 millibars and dropping...

[HurricaneGirl]

Usually the eye pops out big time right when it hits Category 3.

[MiamiensisWx]

Usually the eye pops out big time right when it hits Category 3.

Agreed... usually a better eye or an eye itself appears usually once a storm is around Category Three status, although it may appear earlier.

[truballer#1]

[coolwater]

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looking at the latest images, Rita looks like an absolute monster. Honestly, with nothing but warm waters ahead of her, this girl could go down in the history books. She is much more impressive than her sister Katrina at the same stage.

here comes katrina's little/big sister!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HurricaneGirl]

I think I need to barf!

[LAwxrgal]

Looking at the latest images, Rita looks like an absolute monster. Honestly, with nothing but warm waters ahead of her, this girl could go down in the history books. She is much more impressive than her sister Katrina at the same stage.

Correct. Remember, Kat didn't start really ramping up until the day before she made landfall. Rita is doing it much earlier.

[scostorms]

Quick ma' run!

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think I need to barf!

Will i be sued for yelling/calling for a cat.5 storm????????????????????

[mtm4319]

Those purples look very asymmetrical. When they wrap around to the west side, that's when you'll see it at category 3.

[djtil]

ships intensity model not as aggressive as earlier...and still sees peak at around 48 hours followed by slow weakening before landfall.....

[canegrl04]

2005 will go down as the most memorable hurricane season in history.Two monsters causing massive destruction in the US

[BReb]

"nothing but warm waters ahead of her"


I'm relying upon the accuracy of this heat content map, which is from NOAA and thus seems reliable:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

But if that's accurate then the projected path of Rita puts it over two very large clumps of relatively cool water, in addition to the cooler water near the coast. Much cooler than with Katrina. Plus, a quick look at the water vapor maps will show a lot of dry air over Texas which should weaken it further.

I was freaking out over Katrina- everything was in place with her, but I just don't see this one being a truly catastrophic hurricane. A very dangerous storm, but not in Katrina's league.

[feederband]

I said the other day that Katrina might not be the biggest Hurricane related story if the year.......Rita is trying to prove me right...

[djtil]

I said the other day that Katrina might not be the biggest Hurricane related story if the year

wow....you hear a lot of things on amateuristic blog sites...but wow.

[feederband]

amateuristic blog sites....

Hello

[soonertwister]

"nothing but warm waters ahead of her"


I'm relying upon the accuracy of this heat content map, which is from NOAA and thus seems reliable:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

But if that's accurate then the projected path of Rita puts it over two very large clumps of relatively cool water, in addition to the cooler water near the coast. Much cooler than with Katrina. Plus, a quick look at the water vapor maps will show a lot of dry air over Texas which should weaken it further.

I was freaking out over Katrina- everything was in place with her, but I just don't see this one being a truly catastrophic hurricane. A very dangerous storm, but not in Katrina's league.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that the absolute water temperature is a relatively minor factor in major hurricane development. Max Mayfield recently commented about just that issue.

But the waters are still quite warm, and more specifically the depths of warm water are deeper than when Katrina hit. And Rita is moving faster. I really cannot see what is going to keep Rita from being category 5, and I said exactly the same thing about Katrina, and she reached 155 knots in very little time after getting away from Florida after crossing the peninsula.

I honestly don't understand where a 115 knot max in 24 hours is somehow going to be a cap. Even the discussions have not convinced me of that as a realistic intensity forecast. The NHC was very reluctant and well behind the curve on intensity forecasting for Katrina, and at 11AM today they missed their strengthening forecast by 24 hours.

I'm not optimistic at this point. I just heard on the Weather Channel that the chances of Rita being cat-4 at landfall are pretty slim.

And exactly why is that? Forget about dry air entrainment, once a hurricane becomes "the perfect storm" it self-insulates by moistening the dry air before it reaches the core, by reason of girth and symmetrical circularity.

We could be in a lot of trouble, and frankly, I'm pessimistic about the chances of a weaker storm hitting Texas.