West Coast of FL and Tampa Bay So Far Spared but...

[gatorcane]

If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm impact the west coast of FL

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay was late October in 1921 although several minimal hurricanes and tropical storms have impacted them over the years.

Thoughts and comments welcome

[jax]

[rockyman]

New England?

[gatorcane]

New England?

I don't really count them. It's possible but highly unlikely.

[ronjon]

If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita?)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm wreak havok on the west coast of FL

Thoughts and comments welcome

Boca_Chris, that's not funny - I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy - but I've had this nagging feeling this year for some reason - maybe its been this wierd drought in September or the 2nd hottest June,July, and August on record at TIA. Nature has a way of balancing things out & with warmer than normal SSTs and no sign of autumnal cold fronts, I'm rubbing my rabbits foot, clutching my 4-leaf clover, and nailing a horseshoe over my door until December.

[jax]

New England?

I don't really count them. It's possible but highly unlikely.

ditto for Tampa in October...

lets try and help the Texans... next topic...

[gatorcane]

ditto for Tampa in October...

The highest likelyhood of a west coast of FL threat is October. So let's not minimize that.

[jax]

ditto for Tampa in October...

The highest likelyhood of a west coast of FL threat is October. So let's not minimize that.

it is minimal... very minimal. less than 1% chance of a major
this year hitting Tampa... I know that's not what you want to here...
JMHO...

[johngaltfla]

If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita?)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm wreak havok on the west coast of FL

Thoughts and comments welcome

To say I'm "thrilled" with your comments would be incorrect..but factually you are on to something. Our period of storms usually is in late September through November when the cold fronts tend to steer them right into our area. Some paths of storms into this area:





Sadly, if the cold fronts do not make it this far south and the SSTs in the gulf remain warm, I agree that we won't escape this season. And a Cat 3 hitting the mouth of Tampa Bay would be devestating.

Some Emergency responders here said they saw models that if the eye of a Cat 3 crossed over the St.Pete Beach-Clearwater area, that the resulting storm surge could result in up to 3-4 feet of water all the way to I-75 in Hillsborough County.

Now is not the time to let your guard down.

[gatorcane]

it is minimal... very minimal. less than 1% chance of a major
this year hitting Tampa... I know that's not what you want to here...
JMHO...

Percentages and historical statistics should be thrown out this season.

[jax]

agreed.... thanks BC...

[Canelaw99]

it is minimal... very minimal. less than 1% chance of a major
this year hitting Tampa... I know that's not what you want to here...
JMHO...

Nowhere in this thread does it specify a major hitting the Tampa area. The thread is just discussing any storm.

[rockyman]

By the way, the fact that other areas have been hit does not make it any more or any less likely that the west coast of Florida will be hit...I don't think this is some big conspiracy by Mother Nature to wipe out the entire coastline.

[inotherwords]

Sept/Oct are always scary for us on the west coast. I have a sinking feeling that this will extend into November this year because of gulf water temps.

We had our share last year. I evacuated twice and was affected by four storms, though places elsewhere like the Panhandle, Orlando and Port Charlotte and Arcadia and the east coast from Melbourne to West Palm had it far worse. I hope mother nature gives us a break this year, but I know the odds are just as good that she won't.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With higher ssts, and no cold fronts yet, and an active carribean and homegrown season looming/taking place, A system could easily
develop and succumb to a cold front and be pulled up into the West
Coast.

Look at Gordon 2000, Gabrielle 2001. Put those systems in 2005 ssts
and at a cold front and you have a pretty nasty situation.

So I am not letting my guard down. With temps hitting 101 in N. Fl.
and above 100 all across the deep south today, its like August instead
of late September with regards to the Carribean.

Add cold fronts and lows or developing stuff coming off the cold front
as it enters the GOM, we have yet another possibility.

[Downdraft]

Tampa's chance of being struck by a major hurricane are not any more today than they were this time last year, the year before or the month after they were struck the last time. Some people just don't get it but sorry to say your odds don't increase if you haven't been hit nor do they decrease if you have. Statistics and probabilities plain and simple. If Tampa is "heads" and the rest of the country is "tails" you send 20 hurricanes and they all hit "tails." The odds for Tampa when 21 comes around haven't changed they are still 50-50.

[jdray]

Tampa's chance of being struck by a major hurricane are not any more today than they were this time last year, the year before or the month after they were struck the last time. Some people just don't get it but sorry to say your odds don't increase if you haven't been hit nor do they decrease if you have. Statistics and probabilities plain and simple. If Tampa is "heads" and the rest of the country is "tails" you send 20 hurricanes and they all hit "tails." The odds for Tampa when 21 comes around haven't changed they are still 50-50.

Exactly. Mother Nature does not keep score.

I used to think the NE Florida's time was up and we were due a big one. Not anymore, things happen in cycles. After readings this link ( http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/ ) I realized that this area was hit way more often than believed by most. We have been EXTREMELY lucky the past few decades. Looking at that, it shows that there were decades of multiple hits (sometimes two or more hits a year).

Im sure the west coast of Florida has a similar history.

[inotherwords]

Tampa's chance of being struck by a major hurricane are not any more today than they were this time last year, the year before or the month after they were struck the last time. Some people just don't get it but sorry to say your odds don't increase if you haven't been hit nor do they decrease if you have. Statistics and probabilities plain and simple. If Tampa is "heads" and the rest of the country is "tails" you send 20 hurricanes and they all hit "tails." The odds for Tampa when 21 comes around haven't changed they are still 50-50.

This is very true but it doesn't mean that we don't have to watch and worry a little more in the late summer/early Fall when conditions tend to steer GOM storms more in our direction. I think that was the original poster's intent, not that we're overdue so we're sure to be hit anytime soon. At least that's how I saw it. And given that we could have as many as four or five more storms this season, and given that we've had so many strong storms so far this year, it just seems that this year we're still pretty darn vulnerable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa's chance of being struck by a major hurricane are not any more today than they were this time last year, the year before or the month after they were struck the last time. Some people just don't get it but sorry to say your odds don't increase if you haven't been hit nor do they decrease if you have. Statistics and probabilities plain and simple. If Tampa is "heads" and the rest of the country is "tails" you send 20 hurricanes and they all hit "tails." The odds for Tampa when 21 comes around haven't changed they are still 50-50.

Never said odds increase if you have lots of misses-
I base my reasoning off of the conditions right now and those expected to develop. 2005 is a year of a bunch of storms, and if any get pulled by cold fronts a certain way...

Not only that, but tampa bay gets hit very frequently by weak storms
ADD SSTS and you have these weak storms amplified into a possible
major cane.
Weaker storms (cat 1)
Gordon 2000, Gabrielle 2001, for comparison...theres lots more storms to
but I did not dig them up yet.
Granted these were not direct hits but we got hurricane force winds and
some of the strongest winds from both.

The chance of an on-the-target direct hit is LOW, but the chance of a strong brush with 2005-type conditions and ssts- certainly not very low...
Add hot SSTs and there is a scarier situation.

Nothing to do with odds, everything to do with the current 2005 conditions.

[inotherwords]

I had a direct hit from Gabrielle. It felt a lot stronger than a borderline Cat 1. It hit at 5 a.m. when it was supposed to hit around 1 pm. I shudder to think what it would have become if it had been out in the gulf another 1/2 day. It formed, strengthened, and hit very rapidly with little notice. That was the day I gained respect for "weak" little Category 1 storms.