Models Showing North and NE Turn

[jes]

Then doesn't it make sense that if the storm slows its forward motion the east turn will start while still at sea. Why do all the storms turn East at the last minute. Ivan, Dennis and even katrina did it. It unnerving.

[Radar]

I'm in MS and I'm alittle concerned about the storm as I know the projections will continue to change until it is gets closer to landfall. I guess we are just alittle storm weary hear but everyone is watching Rita with the eye of a hawk. I don't wish it on Texas, Louisiana or even Mexico but I certainly dont want it. I just wish this thing would fall apart instead of intensify but it doesnt look as though it will!

[skysummit]

Just keep looking at the water vapor loops. Right now, it cannot turn north.

[southerngale]

www.wunderground.com One of the newest models ran at 8 p.m. shifted east to TX/LA border. I hear people saying that it is not one a good model, though.

Oh....the BAMM.

The GFS shows a hit just east of Galveston Bay and a NNE turn shortly after landfall.

Most are further south (west) though, so hopefully this is just off or something.

[skysummit]

Here's all of them...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Skysummit, that is really nice. When was that last updated? Are they all current? If you don't mind could you post a map like this every time the models are released if you have time? It is so hard to keep them straight right now becasue every time I turn aroung someone is posting what they think is the newest models and they are not and it just gets confusing. I can't keep track of the times the new models come out as it is. Thanks.

[skysummit]

Skysummit, that is really nice. When was that last updated? Are they all current? If you don't mind could you post a map like this every time the models are released if you have time? It is so hard to keep them straight right now becasue every time I turn aroung someone is posting what they think is the newest models and they are not and it just gets confusing. I can't keep track of the times the new models come out as it is. Thanks.

That's all the latest runs. Most of those models are garbage though. I just wanted to post the spaghetti plot just for the hell of it. I'll try to post it again when they're updated.

[skysummit]

Skysummit, that is really nice. When was that last updated? Are they all current? If you don't mind could you post a map like this every time the models are released if you have time? It is so hard to keep them straight right now becasue every time I turn aroung someone is posting what they think is the newest models and they are not and it just gets confusing. I can't keep track of the times the new models come out as it is. Thanks.

That's all the latest runs. Most of those models are garbage though. I just wanted to post the spaghetti plot just for the hell of it. I'll try to post it again when they're updated.

[dixiebreeze]

As always, I'll be very surprised if the models don't trend closer to Louisiana before this is all over. Historically, it is uncommon for them to maintain a purely westerly course.

[hicksta]

As always, I'll be very surprised if the models don't trend closer to Louisiana before this is all over. Historically, it is uncommon for them to maintain a purely westerly course.

Gee Thanks!!

[kevin mathis]

Storms often turn NE when they get above 30 N...They begin to interact with the Westerlies.
1st post, Hello all

[dixiebreeze]

Storms often turn NE when they get above 30 N...They begin to interact with the Westerlies.
1st post, Hello all

Hello and welcome and you're correct!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey if there is any good news in all of this is that it is just fine if it turns NE after 30N. Now if it is any sooner say around 26,27,28 then we have got major problems.

[skysummit]

Updated models...(the same as my early post, but with most of the garbage taken out).

[jkt21787]

Stewart says the models (GFS and thus GFS based models [thats most of the tropicals]) are weakening the ridge too fast and have too much of a north turn.

[skysummit]

Stewart says the models (GFS and thus GFS based models [thats most of the tropicals]) are weakening the ridge too fast and have too much of a north turn.

Yea, that's what I've heard also. That ridge is holding pretty darn strong right now.

[bayoubebe]

Sky; I'm in SW Louisiana and it does worry me!

You may want to be thinking about evacuation!

Especially with the way so many hotels have filled up to capacity since Katrina.

Good Luck.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed, but the forecast is for the high to remain strong for another 2 days or a little less before it starts to break down. It all determines on how strong the front will be and how fast it drops down and pushes the high eastward to determine how sharp and how fast of a turn Rita makes. Probably will have a much better idea this time tomorrow.

[hriverajr]

TROPICAL...HURRICANE RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONVECTION WRAPPING
COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE PER KEY WEST RADAR. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS PORTRAYED. THIS IS A CHARACTERISTIC BIAS OF
THE MODELS IN ATTEMPTING TO WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TOO
QUICKLY WHICH WAS OBSERVED WITH HURRICANCE EMILY. THE UPSHOT OF THIS
IS THAT THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS TYPICALLY DELAYED WITH THE TRACK
BEING FURTHER LEFT. OBVIOUSLY CLOSE MONITORING IS DEMANDED.