Rita = MONSTER!

[djtil]

Forget about dry air entrainment, once a hurricane becomes "the perfect storm" it self-insulates by moistening the dry air before it reaches the core, by reason of girth and symmetrical circularity.

katrina was significantly weakened from dry air in a very short amount of time. as for "absolute water temps" not being impt....im skeptical about that statement also.

if things are in place the SHIPS model is very aggressive in strengthening......it currently sees something non-conducive to cat 5 development and peaks the storm at cat 3.

[shaggy]

"nothing but warm waters ahead of her"


I'm relying upon the accuracy of this heat content map, which is from NOAA and thus seems reliable:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5262go.jpg

But if that's accurate then the projected path of Rita puts it over two very large clumps of relatively cool water, in addition to the cooler water near the coast. Much cooler than with Katrina. Plus, a quick look at the water vapor maps will show a lot of dry air over Texas which should weaken it further.

I was freaking out over Katrina- everything was in place with her, but I just don't see this one being a truly catastrophic hurricane. A very dangerous storm, but not in Katrina's league.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that the absolute water temperature is a relatively minor factor in major hurricane development. Max Mayfield recently commented about just that issue.

But the waters are still quite warm, and more specifically the depths of warm water are deeper than when Katrina hit. And Rita is moving faster. I really cannot see what is going to keep Rita from being category 5, and I said exactly the same thing about Katrina, and she reached 155 knots in very little time after getting away from Florida after crossing the peninsula.

I honestly don't understand where a 115 knot max in 24 hours is somehow going to be a cap. Even the discussions have not convinced me of that as a realistic intensity forecast. The NHC was very reluctant and well behind the curve on intensity forecasting for Katrina, and at 11AM today they missed their strengthening forecast by 24 hours.

I'm not optimistic at this point. I just heard on the Weather Channel that the chances of Rita being cat-4 at landfall are pretty slim.

And exactly why is that? Forget about dry air entrainment, once a hurricane becomes "the perfect storm" it self-insulates by moistening the dry air before it reaches the core, by reason of girth and symmetrical circularity.

We could be in a lot of trouble, and frankly, I'm pessimistic about the chances of a weaker storm hitting Texas.

its been proven that BIG storms are just as vulnerable to dry air and can be ripped to shreads by a dry air entrainment!Heres a few examples.

Ivan 2004(he was still a monster)!!!
Floyd 1999
Opal 1995
Lili 2002

[soonertwister]

Sure, hurricanes become vulnerable when undergoing eyewall replacement cycles and when approaching land, when friction effects combined with dry air entrainment can disrupt them.

Remember that Katrina was moving more slowly than Rita. Also remember that for much of her history Katrina had eyewall structural anomalies that prevented her from getting even stronger than she was. Some hurricanes undergo very orderly ERC's with minimal disruption, others don't.

We'll see what happens, but I'm still not convinced that Rita = Katrina, and even if she does, that's no consolation whatsoever.

Climatology is only a rough guide as to what might occur. We are seeing an almost unprecedented season to date, and climatology might well not have a whole lot of applicability to this situation. I have serious doubts that any of the recent powerful hurricanes weakened by dry air entrainment were slain by dry air entrainment alone. Katrina had pretty much the same dry environment ahead of her entering the Gulf, with a massive mid/upper high over the Gulf and a ridge pushing her away from recurvature in the eastern Gulf. It was only until she spent an extended period of time being affected by land disruption on her circulation that dry air had significant impact on her intensity, and an ERC was underway at the same time.

[curtadams]

Dry air *is* lethal to hurricanes. However, at sea, it doesn't make much difference for a big storm because the process of dragging air in over hundreds of miles of warm stormy sea adds lots of moisture. So Rita won't be affected too much in the middle of the gulf. When she's close to TX (or wherever) the dry air will take her down a few notches. However, like Ivan and Katrina she'll still pack a monster surge and strong wind. (Assuming she does indeed bomb out tonight as originally forecast)

[Jim Hughes]

.
I just heard on the Weather Channel that the chances of Rita being cat-4 at landfall are pretty slim.

And exactly why is that? .

Dr Lyons was just pointing out to Jim that historical climatology points towards Rita weakening even after she reaches the CAT 4 or 5 level. But we all know though that this season is out of the norm.


Jim